Atlantic Storms February 2014

[Jayne aka Pembsgal]

Scrap that!! Rains arrived

[Nick F]

Bit rough in Milford Haven - no rain. Unsure of wind speed but sure she's just clearing her throat at the moment. What time is high tide?

 

High tide for Milford at 1930. Aberystwyth at 2102.

 

Didn't look as bad as feared on the seafront at Aber on the TV earlier around the time of the morning high tide. Though maybe worse later around high tide this evening. Peak of winds with 70mph gusts still to come this afternoon across Wales, SW England before easing this evening. Already gusts of 50-60mph with exposure across west Wales. peak gusts arriving across SW Ireland now, gusts close to 70mph at Valentia.

 

Next deep low arriving across Ireland on Weds, before filling and moving across N England, 00z was showing 60-70mph widely inland across England and Wales, 80mph+ in the SW approaches.

 

Uncertainty over another deep low later in the week, GFS takes a deep low up the Channel on Friday, with strongest winds over N France, EC  a little further north across S England, GEM further north still across Wales and central England. UKMO takes the low a lot further south in track in across western France.

Edited February 1, 2014 by Nick F

[Liam J]

Severe gales now affecting Ireland and areas around the Irish Sea, peaking over Ireland now with a top gust so far of 76mph @ Mace Head. Worse still to come for the western mainland. 

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

 

Peak for the mainland UK around 3-6pm as the centre tracks over Scotland.

 

 

NMM has a very tight pressure gradient heading into NW England this evening.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 1, 2014 by Liam J

[Rustynailer]

Severe gales now affecting Ireland and areas around the Irish Sea, peaking over Ireland now with a top gust so far of 76mph @ Mace Head. Worse still to come for the western mainland. 

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

 

Peak for the mainland UK around 3-6pm as the centre tracks over Scotland.

 

nmm4.pngnmm5.png

 

NMM has a very tight pressure gradient heading into NW England this evening.

 

nmm6.png

I think it will be nasty in the Irish sea as the day progresses.

Here where I am the local news are worried about the high tides at the usual places. The low is far enough away for wind to be too worrying for them.

I am home for this one thank goodness, off to check the local landslips later(from a safe distance) with the dogs. After all these storms landslips will make the news over the coming weeks I would think.

Our day will be Wednesday, blown to bits again.....For now at least I can watch this storm safely on the Internet

[wimblettben]

Wednesday next week will probably be the worst for us in the south as there are 60-70mph gusts showing inland on XCW weather map.

 

Probably a repeat of the storm we had over the christmas period if it verifies where I got two gusts reaching 49mph on the house and quite a few trees were snapped or uprooted in Stourhead Gardens.

[Jayne aka Pembsgal]

Thank you

[Liam J]

Out at sea Buoy 62023 off Southern Ireland is recording violent storm force 11 mean speeds gusting to 87mph - http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ 

[Liam J]

Much of NE England is now covered by a wind warning on the latest update from the Met Office - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1391299200&regionName=nw

 

It's getting pretty rough here, strong gusts with rain & hail. 

Edited February 1, 2014 by Liam J

[Liam J]

S & W Ireland is taking a real battering now as the centre of the storm approaches N Ireland, gusts 60-70mph+ with Kerry Airport recording a gust to 74mph. This core of damaging will sweep eastwards to affect much of Western Britain with Wales and N England & the extreme S of Scotland set to bare the brunt this evening. 91mph recorded by buoy 62023. 

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

 

 

Edited February 1, 2014 by Liam J

[Bobby]

ECM sending a trio of nasty storms our way next week

 

 

[Summer Sun]

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WARNING #006ISSUED: 1045UTC FRIDAY 31ST JANUARY 2014

 

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A WARNING FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS FOLLOWS:

STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS - WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SCOTLAND, WESTERN ISLES, NORTHERN IRELAND, WALES, SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST ENGLANDHEAVY RAIN LEADING TO A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING - SOUTHWEST ENGLAND, WALES, NORTHERN IRELAND, WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SCOTLANDHEAVY, LOCALLY DISRUPTIVE SNOW - WESTERN AND CENTRAL SCOTLAND, NORTHWEST ENGLAND, WESTERN NORTHERN IRELAND, NORTH WALES

 

IN EFFECT UNTIL 1500UTC SUNDAY 2ND FEBRUARY 2014

 

DEEP LOW ENTERING THE NORTHWEST QUARTER, GENERATING SEVERE GALES, DAMAGING GUSTS, HEAVY RAIN AND PERSISTENT HIGH LEVEL SNOW

 

DISCUSSION:

 

THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER RISKS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SUB-950MB LOW DEVELOPS AS IT ENTERS THE NORTHWEST QUARTER, BRINGING FRONTAL GALES OF ABOVE 40MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 70MPH INTO NORTHWESTERN COASTS, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH, THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ASSOCIATION, A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HEAVY SHOWERS FOCUSSED ALONG POST-FRONTAL SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE IRISH SEA AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS MAY EXCEED 30MM IN THIS PERIOD, WITH A FURTHER SHOWERY REGIME DURING SATURDAY EXPECTED TO ADD TO AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND MOST OF WESTERN SCOTLAND. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND GROUND SATURATION, THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND SHARP RIVER FLOODING IS HIGH, WITH FURTHER INCREASES IN STANDING FLOODWATER AROUND LARGE RIVER BASINS EXPECTED. THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL SCOTLAND, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS SNOW OVER HIGH GROUND, POSSIBLY LEADING TO MORE THAN 30CM GIVEN STRONG WINDS AND DRIFTING. DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SEVERE GALES AFFECTING EIRE WILL TRANSLATE EAST DESPITE THE LOW STALLING, WITH POSSIBLY ABOVE 50MPH MEAN WINDS AND GUSTS PERHAPS TO 80MPH AFFECTING WESTERN COASTS AND HIGH GROUND, MAINLY WALES AND SOUTHWEST ENGLAND. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE WINDS, LARGE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO OVER-TOP SOME SEA DEFENCES GIVEN SEASONALLY HIGH TIDES, THOUGH STORM SURGE AT PRESENT IS FORECAST TO BE AT OR LESS THAN 1M THUS NOT ADDING TOO MUCH TO TIDAL HEIGHTS. WINDS OF AROUND 40MPH WITH 70MPH GUSTS WILL THEN TRANSLATE NORTH INTO SUNDAY, REDUCING IN STRENGTH AS THE LOW FILLS AND MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WARNING MAY BE UPDATED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY. SPOTTING CLOSE TO COASTAL DEFENCES IS NOT ADVISED.

 

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA

 

http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

[Rustynailer]

ECM sending a trio of nasty storms our way next week

 

 

The third one looks nasty for the Channel, never ending.

Just checked my favorite large slow moving landslip at Compton near Freshwater Bay, it is moving and soon will be worth a photo visit. Also at least a meter has been chopped off my usual rout down to the sea, that I use when it is not nasty  like this.

Tonight's high tide is at 22;34 and 2.4 meters. Considerable erosion is taking place, steps and paths down to the beach are being chomped at all the time now, I don't think the waves will stop hitting the top of the beach even at low tide today. The sea state is rough and foamy with very disorganized waves. Lots of sea weed and flotsam, beach combing for me as soon as the stormy weather abates.

This year my beach combing stands at 4 tons of good quality hardwood 6 bright marine buoys and would you believe a nice pair of pliers, brand new.....in the car park on the floor.

Excellent heavy rain just started whilst I am not outside in it LOL

Edited February 1, 2014 by Rustynailer

[Snowshine]

Today's Atlantic Storm is due to bring 50mph gusts in the Midlands or possibly higher, which is clearly capable of knocking a few trees down with a highly saturated ground and flooding, but Monday doesn't look too lively, but it should bring some rain. Wednesday seems to be potentially the worst of the storms, this year.

A forecast on Weather Online shows 52mph SUSTAINED winds hitting my reigion, and during that time people are at work/school, if that is the outcome then it will certainally cause disruption, not potentially.

XC Weather shows a lively rest of the week after Tuesday, with gusts reaching 60mph+ here on Wednesday, small rest bite on Thursday, then 10cm Snow on Friday morning, then an even more severe storm on Saturday with gusts over 65mph, melting any snow. As usual the MET office shows hardly any of this.

[Sainsbo]

Yikes.

 

 

Some very tight isobars from that chart, I expect if it comes off, the wind will likely be the main feature, though the rain will obviously be a problem with the saturation of the ground down here in the south.

 

 

GFS showing this just a couple of days later. Still very far away but looking ahead it doesn't look like the pattern is likely to change any time soon. I'm sure it would cause major damage if it happened.

Edited February 1, 2014 by Sainsbo

[ANYWEATHER]

Today's Atlantic Storm is due to bring 50mph gusts in the Midlands or possibly higher, which is clearly capable of knocking a few trees down with a highly saturated ground and flooding, but Monday doesn't look too lively, but it should bring some rain. Wednesday seems to be potentially the worst of the storms, this year.

A forecast on Weather Online shows 52mph SUSTAINED winds hitting my reigion, and during that time people are at work/school, if that is the outcome then it will certainally cause disruption, not potentially.

XC Weather shows a lively rest of the week after Tuesday, with gusts reaching 60mph+ here on Wednesday, small rest bite on Thursday, then 10cm Snow on Friday morning, then an even more severe storm on Saturday with gusts over 65mph, melting any snow. As usual the MET office shows hardly any of this.

Tbh, its still too far away for exact detail, but Im sure the met-office and other weather forecasters are watching it closely. It certainly is potentially a very stormy time in the days ahead.

[Bobby]

Winds are picking up here, some strong gusts in past hour or so, should peak around 4-5pm for much of the country

 

[Liam J]

 The Met Office have been on the mark this winter WRT forecasting stormy periods which is one thing the Met do very well. They have a whole host of NWP to play with and they don't base a forecast solely on one GFS OP run like much of the sites do on the net, weatheronline, Metcheck & XC weather, for example which are computer generated after each model run. 

 

There are early yellow warnings in force already for next week but anything 4-5 days away is nearly always highly likely to be subject to some changes, once we get nearer and confidence grows then the Met will adjust/issue further warnings. 

 

Plenty of weather action to be concerned about in the here and now without looking too far ahead. 

Edited February 1, 2014 by Liam J

[tinybill]

 The Met Office have been on the mark this winter WRT forecasting stormy periods which is one thing the Met do very well. They have a whole host of NWP to play with and they don't base a forecast solely on one GFS OP run like much of the sites do on the net, weatheronline, Metcheck & XC weather, for example which are computer generated after each model run. 

 

There are early yellow warnings in force already for next week but anything 4-5 days away is nearly always highly likely to be subject to some changes, once we get nearer and confidence grows then the Met will adjust/issue further warnings. 

 

Plenty of weather action to be concerned about in the here and now without looking too far ahead. 

not liking  the  look  of  Wednesday  storm that looks going to hit  the south  of  the  UK  poss hurricane  force winds

[Zenarcher]

Buoy 62023 to the South of Ireland is reporing a gust of 91mph.

 

[Liam J]

None of the models are showing hurricane force winds for Wednesday, where have you seen that? Severe gale force 9 likely on the latest outputs perhaps storm 10 for coastal areas in the west and south, gusts 70-80mph - Hurricane force gusts like some locations are experiencing today but not actual hurricane force winds. A very disturbed pattern continues to hold the UK to mercy.

 

Aberdaron isn't far off hurricane force on the latest obvs, 67mph mean gust to 84mph. http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Edited February 1, 2014 by Liam J

[Bobby]

River Severn levels continuing to rise and overtopping the banks in many places now

 

Worecester at 8am Thursday, 3pm yesterday and  3pm today

 

http://www.farsondigitalwatercams.com/live-webcams/central/Severn/Diglis-Lock/

[gottolovethisweather]

River Severn levels continuing to rise and overtopping the banks in many places now

 

Worecester at 8am Thursday, 3pm yesterday and  3pm today

 

getwaterlevelimage.jpeg

http://www.farsondigitalwatercams.com/live-webcams/central/Severn/Diglis-Lock/

 

A hell of a lot of rain falling over parts of Wales today as well I'm afraid. Perhaps, this will be the next region reaching the media's attention.

[Liam J]

12z really winding up the low for next Wednesday, severe south to south easterly gales sweeping across the UK before swinging W to SW'ly on the southern flank of the depression. 

 

 

Gusts potentially exceeding 80mph in places. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 1, 2014 by Liam J

[Bobby]

A hell of a lot of rain falling over parts of Wales today as well I'm afraid. Perhaps, this will be the next region reaching the media's attention.

 

Yes it's relentless here, all flowing down into England. Sorry about that!

Edited February 1, 2014 by Bobby

[The PIT]

An attempt at a squall line on the radar but looking like it will fail. Noticed the later GFS runs downgraded the wind here and so far not very windy just a leaf rustler.