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Heavy Rainfall and Flood Watch February 2014


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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Sunday 19 January (Today)
 
Latest radar analysis 0445:
 
Latest radar suggests a line of rain from Kent (east) up through EA, stretching up the East coast to around the Humber area, heavy area of rain over northwest England, some rain over N.Wales, heavy rain affecting moslty NE/SE/S Scotland, all other areas patchy rain/showers around.
 
Today: 
 
Rain affecting the east moving away and becoming confined to Scotland, this becoming heavy and prolonged some very heavy downpours over some eastern areas of Scotland, also some signals of heavy downpours affecting some other areas of Scotland, the Western Isles in particular(see alert map)
 
Heavy showers/downpours developing over SW UK, and could become persistent later (see alert map) Note: have put level 1 alert (L1) on the warning map up to 20mm , this may need to be upgraded later for the 20-30mm depending on developments.
 
Very wet over Shetland and Northern Isles(see alert map for Shetland)
 
Heavy showers/downpours could affect the West of Ireland.
 
Can't rule out some scattered heavy showers elsewhere through today and tonight.
 
Latest data - 
General precipitation 1200-1800hrs  - 
EURO4:
Posted Image
 
NAE:
Posted Image
 
 
Model data info from several ppn models - 
 
Highest rainfall values accm expected today up to early Mon:
 
Eastern areas of Scotland (NE) 20-40MM risk of 60mm+ this most likely over higher areas.
 
West of Scotland and the Western Isles 20-50mm in places possible.
 
Shetland 20-30mm.
 
SW UK 20-30mm
 
Accumulated rainfall/ppn data:
 
EURO4 18z +33:
Posted Image
(The rain through central areas now mostly cleared)
 
NAE 00z +30: 
Posted Image
 
GFS 00z +27:
Posted Image
 
NAVGEM 12z +42:
Posted Image
 
 
My rain warning map:
post-11361-0-79187800-1390110358_thumb.p
 
(note the maps are still under experimentation with the color code key/ref to map) 
Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Tuesday 21 January (Today)

 

Band of heavy frontal rain moving from west to east through today slowly and not expected to get to the east side of UK until evening, possibly the night for far eastern areas,

00z NAE 1500-2100hrs:

Posted Image

Some of the rain becoming heavy and prolonged, west/east and central Scotland most likely seeing the highest totals with some very large rainfall possible here, rain/ppn today and tonight (snow for some) becoming persistent. The southwest of Scotland, and also Cumbria possibly seeing some quite heavy rain totals.

 

Other areas the rain moderate to heavy, 12-15mm generally I expect possibly a 20mm locally, I have highlighted these spots on my alert map, it looks as though the SE and EA should have quite low totals-at first but need to keep watch for mid-late week more prolonged rain possible.

(are keep watch as the rain front moves in this evening)

 

NAE 0000-0600hrs the fronts progression eastwards:

Posted Image

 

Expected rain/ppn total in MM:

 

East, west and central Scotland 40-50mm 
 
Southwest Scotland up to 30mm
 
Cumbria up to 30mm
 
A few areas possibly the Central England area a signal of 20mm, the far south/central and parts of Wales a few signals of 20mm, but generally 12-15mm more likely. Have highlighted these zones as a rainwatch on the alert map.
 
Acummulated precipitation data -
 
00z NAE +30:
Posted Image
 
00z EURO4 +30:
Posted Image
 
00z GFS +30:
Posted Image
 
 00z NAVGEM +30:
Posted Image
 
00z CMC +30:
Posted Image
 
00z UKMO precipitation - 
 
1200-1800hrs:
Posted Image
 
1800-0000hrs:
Posted Image
 
0000-0600hrs:
Posted Image
 
 
 

00z GFS Surface Pressure Tendency (blue falling pressure, red rising pressure)

 

1500hrs:

Posted Image

 

0300hrs:

Posted Image

 

 

My rain alert map for today:

post-11361-0-86923100-1390291457_thumb.p

 

(new info added to the color code/key to map bar. The %percentage is risk of event occurring. For example - I have given the level 1 watch areas 25% risk of the 20mm, the 80% risk is for Scotland with H=High risk of disruption and here there is level 3 on my alert map for 30-60mm) 

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Persistent heavy rain setting in tomorrow night, into Friday in the West - Wales and SW England likely to be most affected with up to 30-40mm on high ground, perhaps a bit more locally. 15-25mm on lower ground.

GFS precip accumulations:

 

Posted Image

 

Then a deep depression to the NW on Sunday brings a spell of persistent heavy or very heavy rain to all areas, 50mm is possible on high ground in the West. Some spots in SW England and Wales could get close to 100mm of rain by Tuesday I think - some flooding looks likely.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

This month is already the first since October last year to have above-average rainfall, but we may even break 100mm at this rate.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Yeovil, Somerset
  • Location: Yeovil, Somerset

http://www.westernga...tail/story.html

 

planning for possible involvement of armed forces to assist in Somerset according to BBC news tonight, due to heavy rain forecasts.

 

3 weeks and people still cut off.

 

if this happened in another country i.e the USA and fema a state of emergency would be declared for the county.  Government a disgrace

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

 

http://www.westernga...tail/story.html

 

planning for possible involvement of armed forces to assist in Somerset according to BBC news tonight, due to heavy rain forecasts.

 

3 weeks and people still cut off.

 

if this happened in another country i.e the USA and fema a state of emergency would be declared for the county.  Government a disgrace

 

Did you forget the debacle that was New Orleans? A large city the size of Bristol completely underwater? Flood defences completely failed? At least our flood-prone cities like London are adequately protected from such disasters. Not sure why some people insist on saying "If this happened in another country, this or that would happen," when we all know that's not true at all. You do realise that Americans say the same thing about their country - "Look at London, that is how you protect a city from floods," in reference to New York being affected quite badly (no idea why it doesn't have proper flood defences in the first place - talk about incompetence and ill-preparedness)

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Persistent heavy rain setting in tomorrow night, into Friday in the West - Wales and SW England likely to be most affected with up to 30-40mm on high ground, perhaps a bit more locally. 15-25mm on lower ground.

GFS precip accumulations:

 

Posted Image

 

Then a deep depression to the NW on Sunday brings a spell of persistent heavy or very heavy rain to all areas, 50mm is possible on high ground in the West. Some spots in SW England and Wales could get close to 100mm of rain by Tuesday I think - some flooding looks likely.

 

Posted Image

Yes very much a concern and a fear is that the rain storms (and windstorm) ahead are likely to result in a flash flood very quickly, I think the possibility of as bad if not worse for some areas than the late Dec floods is there, unfortunately.  

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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Thursday 23 January (today)

 

Latest radar: 

 

Line of heavy rain showers some downpours, possibly wintry, containing sleet or snow over the hills in north moving east. Areas affected at the moment are south/central Wales and down into the SW (north coast moslty) the west side of northern England and the NW, Scotland, showers over Ireland and N.Ireland.

 

Rain forecast today: band of heavy showers with some wintry especially on the hills in the north (snow to lower ground possible over west/northwest of Scotland) showers/rain moving to east side of UK clearing to scattered showers apart from Scotland where heavy ppn continuing today.

 

00z EURO4 ppn -

 

0600-1200hrs:

Posted Image

 

1200-1800hrs:

Posted Image

 

1800-0000hrs:

Posted Image

Next band of heavy rain into Ireland this evening, this prolonged, clear gap further east.

 

Going to keep it short today but are try do a bigger more in-depth post on the events Friday/wkend.

 

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Tendency - 

 

0900hrs:

Posted Image

 

0000hrs (midnight tonight)

Posted Image

 

That's Fridays weather event moving into the west tonight (blue=falling pressure)

 

 

PPN ACCM:

 

UP TO EARLY HRS FRIDAY:
 
WEST OF SCOTLAND/WESTERN ISLES - 20-30MM
 
SHETLAND 20-25MM
 
WEST OF AND THE WEST COAST OF IRELAND - 20-30MM
 

IN EVENT OF SNOWFALL OVER SCOTLAND THESE TOTALS COULD PRODUCE UP TO 30CM OF SNOW. 1MM-1CM APPROX.

 

My Rain Alert Map (incl snow risk as *symbols)

post-11361-0-42685000-1390459516_thumb.p

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

A very weak feature here a certainly not a squall line. It's now fragmented into an area of showers mostly light odd heavier one if you're unlucky.. Just produced 0.2mm here and didn't get wet walking to work through it. Just noticed the netweather radar has gone potty with freezing rain in the south. Unless it's much colder down there than here it's plain wrong.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Very wet morning up here, squally westerly winds with 40-50mph gusts. 

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Posted
  • Location: Yeovil, Somerset
  • Location: Yeovil, Somerset

I wasn't discussing cities in the uk.

The south west is suffering still since December. Somerset and other parts of the sw region have suffered from excessive rain, wind and sea conditions.

Mismanagement by government who don't care about rural areas.

Political parties look after London and the north but don't care about other parts.

Mulchelney cut off for three weeks and counting, if someone has a medical emergency the air ambulance gets called in.

If flooding gets worse over the next 10 or 20 years the m5 could be compromised.

No upgrade on strategic A303 coming to provide contingency to access in and out of the South West.

People's lives down here are badly affected, farmers livelihoods regarding crops and animals by flooding. Homes and businesses damaged etc.

I'm afraid people saying America didn't do this and London ok due to barrier doesn't help your fellow countrymen here.

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

I wasn't discussing cities in the uk.The south west is suffering still since December. Somerset and other parts of the sw region have suffered from excessive rain, wind and sea conditions.Mismanagement by government who don't care about rural areas.Political parties look after London and the north but don't care about other parts.Mulchelney cut off for three weeks and counting, if someone has a medical emergency the air ambulance gets called in.If flooding gets worse over the next 10 or 20 years the m5 could be compromised.No upgrade on strategic A303 coming to provide contingency to access in and out of the South West.People's lives down here are badly affected, farmers livelihoods regarding crops and animals by flooding. Homes and businesses damaged etc.I'm afraid people saying America didn't do this and London ok due to barrier doesn't help your fellow countrymen here.

We've had our fare share of flooding in the southeast to, not sure about London but further south from there in surrey and sussex. Although I will admit nothing as bad as Mulchelney. There are places that are still flooded though and more rain is defo not needed where you are or here.

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Posted
  • Location: Lake District at the foot of Blencathra 610 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Ice
  • Location: Lake District at the foot of Blencathra 610 ft asl

A very weak feature here a certainly not a squall line. It's now fragmented into an area of showers mostly light odd heavier one if you're unlucky.. Just produced 0.2mm here and didn't get wet walking to work through it. Just noticed the netweather radar has gone potty with freezing rain in the south. Unless it's much colder down there than here it's plain wrong.

 

I noticed this too. Currently 2.9c in this part of Northants.cold but not freezing rain at surface level.

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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Friday 24 January (today)

 

Current radar image 415am:

Persistent heavy rain now affecting Ireland, SW England and into South Wales, edge of this rain is as far as east Wiltshire and west Hampshire, stretching up over western areas into the west of Scotland.

 

Scattered Temperature reports at about 440am:

Aberdeen -2C, Shap(north) 1C , Belfast 5C, Mumbles Head(southwest) 7C, Plymouth 8C, London Heathrow AP 3C, Norwich -1C, East Midlands 2C, Thorney Island(south coast) 4C.

 

Milder air moving into the SW, colder air hangs on over the east side UK.

 

Thickness 850/1000hpa 1800hrs:

Posted Image

Clearly indicated is the warm sector arriving in the SW (yellow) alot of rainfall expected here. Cold air still over to the east (darker greens)

 

 

Rain forecast for today:

 

The area of persistent and prolonged rainfall now affecting the SW/W moves slowly east through today with the heaviest rain over the SW and Wales and western Scotland. The rain moving east to affect all areas by late in the day and night I expect.

 

GFS indicated this rain on it's latest model run and is as seen on the recent radar image:

 

Radar:

Posted Image

 

 

00z GFS precipitation 0300-0600hrs:

Posted Image

 

 

00z GFS indicates rain over the south to ease and then develop further over west of Scotland - 

 

1200-1500hrs:

Posted Image

 

 

But then re-develops the rain further south through the afternoon and evening:

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

 

 

18z EURO4 - 0600-0900hrs:

 

Posted Image

Very heavy rainfall indicated over SW England this morning.

 

 

Accumulated Rainfall Data:

 

00z EURO4 +30:

 

Posted Image

 

 

00z GFS +30:

 

Posted Image

 

 

12z CMC +42: 

 

Posted Image

 

12z NAVGEM +42:

 

Posted Image

 

Expected ppn accm up to 0600hrs Saturday:

 

Heaviest rainfalls:

 
West of Scotland and the western Isles of Scotland, SW England 25-40mm
 
Western, Northern and Central Scotland 20mm-25mm.
 
Generally moderate to heavy rain areas:
 
SW England and Wales, perhaps parts of central southern England 20-25mm.
 
Scotland, England-SW,South,SE and EA,North,Northwest, and Wales generally seeing 10-20mm.
 
(It's not expected that all the noted areas above receive these stated amounts of rain)
 
Flooding is likely and possibly noticeably disruptive flooding for some areas.
 
My rain alert map for today:
Big screen map:
post-11361-0-91796600-1390541500_thumb.p
===================
 
Smaller(same)map lower file size below should work better on the phones:
post-11361-0-59910100-1390541748_thumb.g
 
 
00z GFS Surface Pressure Tendency- 0900hrs:
Posted Image
 
2100hrs:
Posted Image
 
==========================================================
 
A look ahead to Sunday:
Posted Image
Looking very much a concern after all the rain that could fall today, this is a deep Atlantic storm to affect on Sunday and possibly Monday too, bringing very much more rainfall and damaging winds for some areas, potentially disruptive flooding with likely increasing or continued river/stream floods.
 
So were take a look at the ppn/rain side of this storm now.
 
Precipitation Data from 00z GFS:
 
0300hrs Sunday:
Posted Image
0300-0600hrs:
Posted Image
0600-0900hrs:
Posted Image
 
Going to leave it here, are try and do a post nearer to the day on this with near time frame of event data.
 --
Quick explanation of the alert maps: L=level of alert. L+W=Watch. LOW/MED/HIGH=risk of potential disruption, the %+25/50/80=how likely the event to occur. The blue oval disks at top of side bar indicate the size of rainfall in MM, the more rain accumulations=L/M/H ,H=largest expected ppn accm, for example if you see a HIGH RSK the (H)IGH is for size of expected rainfall and is shown on the blue oval as H. working on the side bar info in relation to the map, but I think so far it works well. the maps are generally based on accumulated ppn data, and I try and use as close to the event data as is available. 
 
 
 
E.
Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Somerset floods: 'Major incident' declared

 

A "major incident" has been declared in flooded areas in Somerset following warnings of further heavy rain. Many villagers are already cut off by floods and Sedgemoor District Council declared the major incident so it can mobilise extra support. The area's MP said there was a risk of catastrophic flooding unless action was taken and he asked for government help. The village of Muchelney has been cut off for almost a month while roads around Langport are expected to flood. The Environment Agency warned of "significant disruption" caused by a band of rain passing over the area on Friday morning. Ian Liddell-Grainger, the Conservative MP for Bridgwater, said the county faced a "very difficult weekend". He has written to Prime Minster David Cameron and Communities Secretary Eric Pickles asking for help.

 

There is a very real risk of catastrophic flooding on a scale not seen for more than a century unless we act swiftly and decisively," he said. "I have told the prime minister we need extra pumping capacity brought here as soon as possible and we may also need help from the military if the situation progresses in the way it appears to be going," said Mr Liddell-Grainger. Kerry Rickards, of Sedgemoor District Council, said: "Several Sedgemoor communities have been severely affected by the floodwaters for some weeks now. "With significant rainfall expected over the coming days we feel this situation needs to be escalated as a major incident." A major incident is declared where there is a situation which could not be dealt with easily by the local council and could threaten lives, disrupt the community or damage property. It means the local authority can organise emergency evacuations, set up rest centres and mobilise voluntary organisations. The council said it had provided portable toilets where septic tanks have overflowed and delivered extra sandbags on top of the 3,000 already given out.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-25876309

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Unless there's reinvigoration, the models have messed up on this one, 06Z guidance is totally out from the radar snapshots.

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The models seem to have shifted the rain to the SW at the last minute, the somserset levels under the amber warming only look to have had 5mm or so of rain.

 

However there is more rain to come as the cold front gathers to the West and is expected to intensify as it crosses across the country later, although not huge totals.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

http://www.sat24.com/?ir=true&ra=true&li=false You can quite clearly see the rain on the front is hitting the block and being pushed south.

That was picked up fine to be fair, the questioning is in the intensity and the totals.
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

However there is more rain to come as the cold front gathers to the West and is expected to intensify as it crosses across the country later, although not huge totals.

The GFS is progging much stronger PVA later, so yep, it will certainly intensify. I'm wondering whether it will be similar to Tuesday's front, it was narrow but 16.5mm fell in 6 hours or so.
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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

That was picked up fine to be fair, the questioning is in the intensity and the totals.

Yep all the heavy stuff went south it's in France. The front over the SW disintegrated for want of the better word. The cold front might still cause some trouble though.

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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Just a quick post here. Cold front/trough moving south/southeast bringing band of heavy rain and showers some very squally, thundery with hail thunder, possible sleet or snow most likely hills north.

 

Done an alert map based on this situation, after checking recent accumulated ppn data and ppn hourly runs, and latest radar.

 

Bit different from usual maps I do as is for the progress of the front and the risk of heavy sudden downpours on it's journey S/SE. Have put a L1 watch for the far south. Are do an update later if the front affects here more than the data is suggesting at the moment. But for northern and western area could catch 10-20mm from this I expect and western Scotland possible 20-30mm upto midnight accm.

 

post-11361-0-60329200-1390638515_thumb.p

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Couldn't update the today would have spread the L1 into the central south and southeast (map has a watch!)

 

The extremely violent squall not long ago went through my area Stanwell (next to Heathrow AP) planes were grounded during this didn't notice any taking off. This was so violent and torrential one of the most severe have experienced.

 

The wind estimated 50-70mph gusts and appeared to have damaging potential.

 

Also lightning several flashes, sounded like thunder heard.

 

Lots of surface flooding right now. This potentially damaging squall line heading through the Southeast now, arriving into Sussex and Kent.

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Only have time now to do a post to put on a map. So much going on with the weather got everything possible over the next 24-36hrs at least.

 

Atlantic storm today bringing widespread heavy rainfall to affect all areas, snow over the north and the wintry risk moves south with the even colder air this evening arriving in the south too.

Gales to severe gale winds south, severe to storm force north-see Atlantic thread.

 

My alert map here:

post-11361-0-18748200-1390725013_thumb.p

 

Note: my alert map is for rain/ppn and the associated flooding, map based on mostly ppn accm model data up to early hours Mon.

 

The threads around the forum would keep you updated with the winds and snow with this storm, this is for the rain but have put a few extras on the alert map!

 

Must put the latest radar from the Met office:

post-11361-0-33866600-1390725280_thumb.j

 

Heavy and prolonged rain/ppn now affecting all of the west and up into the north this moving towards the east through today.

Met office weather warnings:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map

 

 

 

(I'm off now but are be reading the threads on/off, a lot to keep up with today for forecasters!)

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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