Weather news from Greece
I've just introduced this new topic about Greece. As you may know Greece doesn't mean just sun, fair weather and beaches. Furthermore, the very complicated orography can affect the weather from a place to another even if the distance is just a few Kilometers. So, I will use this topic to prove what I said . Of course, if anyone has any comments, queries or even matterial from Greece, he/she can upload.
Rain Watch 2016 - January month
By ZONE 51
Hi everyone, have decided to start up a separate topic to look more closely at expected rainfall accumulations in the days ahead. It's a concern that more new floods are possible if not likely through this weekend and into next week, this coming from several large scale weather systems and possible Atlantic storms hitting the UK and ROI over the next 7 days at least, it's likely that some breaks in the rain will occur at times though.
I'm not going to hide the fact that severe floods in new areas are possibly on the way I say possibly even if I think likely, which I do.
Below I've put on a rain alert map created from precipitation data models of which the one's I have access, please use my map as a general guide of where the heaviest rain could be accumulated over the next 48hrs or so, please do allow for some small adjustments do not take the map as 100 percent set in stone, usually the expected accumulations of rainfall may be more or less in any one area and exact locations can change, I might not be able to update map.
(Map can be shared where you like)
Map expires MON 0300hrs - January 4
W = on the map this means that I am watching for upgrades of 30mm or more.
Light yellow + W =30mm - rainfall may get accumulated up to 30mm but may upgrade to 40mm for a level 1 so is under a watch zone.
Yellow = 40mm - 50mm accm rain
Orange = 50mm - 80mm accm rain
Red = 80mm - 100mm accm rain
Dark red = 100+ accm rain.
Many areas seeing rain this heavy at times some very heavy and prolonged, expect 10mm-25mm generally.
Some of the largest rainfalls likely to occur over higher ground.
For the winds associated with these weather systems/storms likely gale or severe gale at times please see other threads and warnings.
Please post anything related to rainfall forecasting, model ppn data, alerts and warnings, your own rain maps and forecasts.
Glastonbury Festival 2015 24 to 28 June - Forecast No 11
This is the 11th blog, and there have some real ups and downs.
The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive.
The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive.
The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
The 7th blog (Issued 17 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
The 8th blog (Issued 18 June) was slightly more negative and scored 7.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
The 9th blog (Issued 19 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
The 10th blog (Issued 20 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
Hopefully things have finally settled down with no further spanners in the works.
[b]Run up to festival[/b]
Monday starts rather unsettled with some rain seemingly likely for the Glastonbury area, as a front moves South Eastwards during the morning/ early afternoon. Expected Precipitation amounts run to run but have settles down to the 5-10mm range. Perhaps brightening up a little later in the day.
Tuesday continues to look drier as pressure builds from the west.
[b]Daily Forecasts for Festival [/b]
[size=3][b]Wednesday 24th June[/b][/size]
As per yesterdays forecast low Pressure remains locked out to the west over the Atlantic, with a weak area of High Pressure building over Southern UK, giving benign settled conditions with the best of any
sunshine in the afternoon, Mostly dry temps low 20s.
[attachment=253565:ECM 20th June 00Hz + 72.png] [attachment=253575:UKMO 21st June 00Hz + 72.png] [attachment=253570:GFS 21th June 00Hz + 72.JPG] [attachment=253582:GFS 21th June 06Hz + 72.JPG]
[b][size=3]Thursday 25th June [/size][/b]
Low Presume makes slow progress towards the UK, with a ridge of High Pressure holding in place for Thursday for Southern parts of the UK, with further benign settled conditions, Mostly Dry Temps Low 20s, perhaps a degree or so warmer than Wednesday.
[attachment=253564:ECM 21st June 00Hz + 72.png] [attachment=253576:UKMO 21st June 00Hz + 96.png][attachment=253569:GFS 21st June 00Hz + 96.JPG] [attachment=253581:GFS 21st June 06Hz + 96.JPG]
[size=3][b]Friday 26th June [/b][/size]
Low Pressure continues to edge closer, with fronts staring to make inroads across the UK, so some rain is likely at times for Glastonbury. However at this stage with slightly high pressure to the south, the heaviest of the rain may effect more North western parts of the UK with rather damp cloudy conditions expected for Glastonbury for much of the day, however this done mean rainfall amounts are likely to be under 5mm.
Temps again low 20s with Sunshine amounts currently looking very limited.
There still remains uncertainty on this with rainfall amounts varying run to run, to trace rainfall to perhaps as much as 10mm, Current trends are currently going towards the lower of these at the moment.
[attachment=253563:ECM 21st June 00Hz +120.png] [attachment=253577:UKMO 21st June 00Hz + 120.png] [attachment=253568:GFS 21st June 00Hz + 120.JPG] [attachment=253580:GFS 21st June 06Hz + 120.JPG]
[size=3][b][size=3][b]Saturday 27th June[/b][/size][/b][/size]
A mild south westerly flow seems likely on Saturday, with perhaps a ridge of High Pressure from the South West. still the chance of some showers, but this risk seems smaller than yesterday.
Temps a bit cooler high teens/Low 20s. Confidence remains quite low in the detail at the moment.
[attachment=253562:ECM 21st June 00Hz +144.png] [attachment=253567:GFS 21st June 00Hz + 144.JPG] [attachment=253579:GFS 21st June 06Hz + 144.JPG]
[b][size=3]Sunday 28th June[/size][/b]
A mild South westerly flow again on Sunday, this time with lower pressure with some uncertainty as to rainfall amounts later in the day or into Monday.
Temps again Low 20s. Detail again uncertain
[attachment=253560:ECM 21st June 00Hz +168.png] [attachment=253566:GFS 21st June 00Hz + 168.JPG] [attachment=253578:GFS 21st June 06Hz + 168.JPG]
[b]Ground Conditions [/b]
The rain on Monday which could be around 5-10mm is likely to soften the ground and this may cause a little mud when the doors open on Wednesday, however the mostly dry conditions to start the festival should ease this.
At this stage some rain is expected on Friday, but this continues to look smaller than was feared so as things stand shouldn't cause any serious mud problems. Further rain/showers are possible are over the weekend, more especially Sunday however things are looking reasonable at the moment, but worth keeping an eye on the situation at the end of the festival.
[attachment=253572:Ensemble Pressure 21 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=253584:Ensemble Pressure 21 June 06Hz.png]
Pressure now largely around 1020mb, with a light drop around Friday.
[attachment=253573:Ensemble Rain 21 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=253583:Ensemble Rain 21 June 06Hz.png]
After the rain Monday, mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday. Thereafter some ensembles have some a little rain on Friday and over the weekend, but most perhaps the weekend rain now being moved to Late Sunday/Early Monday.
[attachment=253574:Ensemble Temp 21 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=253585:Ensemble Temp 21 June 06Hz.png]
Temps rising steadily from +5c to close to +10c by Friday and staying there over the weekend. Meaning temps low 20s for the most part.
The trend of yesterday continues, so not looking that bad at all for the moment. temps 20s most days, some sun, with some rain Friday and perhaps over the weekend, more especially Sunday, but at this stage not looking that troublesome.
April/May Cool/Cold Spell
Good Evening to you all.
As the Warm/Hot Spell is ending as we speak or has ended depending on where you are the cool spell slowly taking over the UK with unsettled weather as it main force.
Your opinions/thoughts on the spell/period.
Please also be respectful of other users opinions as well...
Quite surprised that the unusual rainfall and flooding last week in possibly the world's driest place hasn't received more attention, a quick overview of which can be found here - http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2944
Appropriately the article links the synoptic conditions with the Antarctic warmth at around the same time, though long term there would be expected to be a higher chance of precipitation with El Nino conditions which may be taking hold now. Data from the rather good Chilean met office site - DirecciÃ³n MeteorolÃ³gica de Chile shows that precipitation has differed from normal so far this year with very dry conditions in the wetter south as well as the desert rain - http://www.meteochile.gob.cl/inf_precipitacion.php
With regards to the Atacama rain they have compiled some data from the north of the country which shows it to be relatively localised (though it is a large area) with 4 of 18 stations listed recording a record March daily rainfall total But it is significant due to how extremely dry the area is normally - Iquique broke their March record since 1911 with a mere 0.3 mm!! - http://www.meteochile.gob.cl/js/PRECIPITACIONES_EN_EL_NORTE.pdf
This makes the reasonably wet near-inch rainfall at Antofagasta of 23.6 mm, which is the wettest March day since records began in 1919 seem almost diluvial, but it is a mind-numbingly dry location. Sure, they had a trace of rain in January but the last measurable rainfall was 1 mm over a couple of days last September. As for March the last trace of rain was in 2012 but the rainguage last came into action with 0.7 mm on March 31st 1992!!
Recently Browsing 0 members
No registered users viewing this page.