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little ice age ahead


tynevalleysnow

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Posted
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland
  • Location: Near Allenheads,1400 feet up in northumberland

What do we think about the growing number of solar and climate scientists who are coming out and saying we could be at the start of a mini ice age.

I know the sun spot count went up last month but the magnetic field is still very low compared to the last 100 years.

One scientist put the figure at 20-30% chance of a maunder minimum and said more than likely to go into dalton minimum.

What do you think

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Posted
  • Location: Plympton St Maurice, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, cold and Storms
  • Location: Plympton St Maurice, Devon

I think this is very plausible. The world has been brainwashed into believing this carbon malarkey and have been consequently robbed by governments who have had their "green" bank accounts filled to brim. Of course, according to our leaders there is no possible way that global warming cannot be happening. However, this is not through scientific fact, this is through fear that they will have to endure the public outrage for robbing us blind for the global warming that IS NOT HAPPENING.

 

On the other side, governments like to control everything, even the weather. Therefore, in their opinion, anything that happens to our climate must be man made and somehow the public has to pay for that. They simply cannot accept that if mother nature wants to poke us in the eye with a pooey stick, she will do it perfectly well on here own and nothing human kind can do will stop here. This strikes fear in the hearts of governments around the world so they like to give the impression that they can somehow control mother nature with money.... bless them.

 

What they should be doing is taking note of the natural cycles that earth goes through, and preparing for what is an already over due ice age and coming up with ways to sustain food sources, heat etc.

 

Rant over, just an opinion, don't shoot me!

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

What do we think about the growing number of solar and climate scientists who are coming out and saying we could be at the start of a mini ice age.I know the sun spot count went up last month but the magnetic field is still very low compared to the last 100 years.One scientist put the figure at 20-30% chance of a maunder minimum and said more than likely to go into dalton minimum.What do you think

 

If that sentence refers to Mike Lockwood, it might be worthwhile to note his opinion on the term 'little ice age'. Weather forum threads under this title do not do well for a variety of reasons - might I respectfully suggest a change of title to something that specifies the effects are regional.

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

If that sentence refers to Mike Lockwood, it might be worthwhile to note his opinion on the term 'little ice age'. Weather forum threads under this title do not do well for a variety of reasons - might I respectfully suggest a change of title to something that specifies the effects are regional.

There is plenty of evidence to suggest the LIA was global, but that's for another forum Lol.
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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

There is plenty of evidence to suggest the LIA was global, but that's for another forum Lol.

 

I know this,  doesn't prevent the pedantry and red herrings from occurring.

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Posted
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.

What annoys me about places like iceagenow is that they just run around the internet desperately grabbing anything that mentions cold weather, with no sense of context or climatology, and of course they completely ignore any warmer weather happening. Recent example would be a post about potential record overnight minima occurring in November for Canberra. The contact said "and Australia is supposed to be warming up!". The implication being that this event is somehow evidence that it's not!It's beyond belief that they can smugly toot out such nonsense. After such an absurdly hot year throughout Australia in general, a few cold nights in early November is meaningless!  

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Posted
  • Location: Near Cranbrook, Kent
  • Location: Near Cranbrook, Kent

I agree with you, but by referring to short term* weather in Australia you are falling into the same trap.

*in a climate context

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

What annoys me about places like iceagenow is that they just run around the internet desperately grabbing anything that mentions cold weather, with no sense of context or climatology, and of course they completely ignore any warmer weather happening. Recent example would be a post about potential record overnight minima occurring in November for Canberra. The contact said "and Australia is supposed to be warming up!". The implication being that this event is somehow evidence that it's not!It's beyond belief that they can smugly toot out such nonsense. After such an absurdly hot year throughout Australia in general, a few cold nights in early November is meaningless!  

Absurdly hot year?  You are doing and suggesting the same thing but from another angle.  I have lots of family living in Oz and they spoke of nothing about absurdly hot temps.....

 

BFTP

 

 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

What annoys me about places like iceagenow is that they just run around the internet desperately grabbing anything that mentions cold weather, with no sense of context or climatology, and of course they completely ignore any warmer weather happening. Recent example would be a post about potential record overnight minima occurring in November for Canberra. The contact said "and Australia is supposed to be warming up!". The implication being that this event is somehow evidence that it's not!It's beyond belief that they can smugly toot out such nonsense. After such an absurdly hot year throughout Australia in general, a few cold nights in early November is meaningless!  

 

True but there is enough of the global warming fraternity that always bang the drum about summer 06 being an eg of rising temps but always say that Dec 10 and the like are just 'one offs', you cant have it both ways.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

True but there is enough of the global warming fraternity that always bang the drum about summer 06 being an eg of rising temps but always say that Dec 10 and the like are just 'one offs', you cant have it both ways.

Things should be looked at globally rather than cherry picking hot or cold spells in particular locations at particular times...how many record warm years globally have there been in the last 10 years for example and how many reocrd cold years have there been in the same time frame?..personally i dont know the answer but they may give you an idea of the state of the climate surely? Edited by cheeky_monkey
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Isolated incidents, either by time or location, are not sufficient to judge a global warming or cooling - what is important is the overall global change - as we are experiencing only too well the weather is a capricious beast and is throwing its jet streams around all over the place and the position of these can quite easily mean that different places can have abnormally cold and abnormally hot weather at times, depending in where they are in relation to these jet streams.

 

If the Atlantic conveyer stopped, we in North West Europe could, paradoxically end up with a cooler climate whilst the rest of the globe was still warming - we will probably have a better idea when we see how the next 20 or so years pan out.

Edited by mike Meehan
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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Absurdly hot year?  You are doing and suggesting the same thing but from another angle.  I have lots of family living in Oz and they spoke of nothing about absurdly hot temps.....

 

BFTP

Same here Fred, no reports of anything extraordinary  just normal Oz weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

According to the 'wits' at Iceagenow, there's always a new Little Ice Age just around the corner. The only thing missing is evidence...

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

According to the wits at SS there is catastrophic warming, balance Pete balance!

'Catastrophic warming'? Who said that?

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

According to the wits at SS there is catastrophic warming, balance Pete balance!

 

SS look at the published science, often using published scientists, to present what is a quite moderate and evidenced based defence of climate science.

IAN is a spoof site that looks at isolated weather events and claims they all indicate a catastrophic ice age is approaching.

 

They certainly do not balance. If you find a spoof site that claims every small warm spell is a sign of the Earth going into a Venus like state, then you might have some balance!

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

SS look at the published science, often using published scientists, to present what is a quite moderate and evidenced based defence of climate science.IAN is a spoof site that looks at isolated weather events and claims they all indicate a catastrophic ice age is approaching. They certainly do not balance. If you find a spoof site that claims every small warm spell is a sign of the Earth going into a Venus like state, then you might have some balance!

Oh I wholeheartedly agree with you on ice age now, I'm just seeking some balance as we both know that both sides of the argument can produce nonsense.
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Things should be looked at globally rather than cherry picking hot or cold spells in particular locations at particular times...how many record warm years globally have there been in the last 10 years for example and how many reocrd cold years have there been in the same time frame?..personally i dont know the answer but they may give you an idea of the state of the climate surely?

 

Agreed but in some ways that's my point, you shouldn't cherry pick anything, including 30 -40 year periods when this big round thing im standing on has been there for billions of years and warmed up and cooled down many times.

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Posted
  • Location: Northern Lake District. 150m asl
  • Location: Northern Lake District. 150m asl

It is all about time perspective...

 

At the moment we are in Quarternary Ice Age that started 2.5 million years ago, but in an inter-glacial period which started about 10,000 years ago, but in effect we are still in an Ice Age 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Agreed but in some ways that's my point, you shouldn't cherry pick anything, including 30 -40 year periods when this big round thing im standing on has been there for billions of years and warmed up and cooled down many times.

 

But when you have a good grasp of why it cooled and warmed over seemingly very predictable cycles, and then it appears to be following that exact cycle once more, cooling toward the next glacial period for 8,000 years, only for it to suddenly start going in the opposite direction and start warming at rates not seen for many millennia, then you gotta start asking some questions! Why aren't we going the opposite way to the natural cycles? What's changed?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

But when you have a good grasp of why it cooled and warmed over seemingly very predictable cycles, and then it appears to be following that exact cycle once more, cooling toward the next glacial period for 8,000 years, only for it to suddenly start going in the opposite direction and start warming at rates not seen for many millennia, then you gotta start asking some questions! Why aren't we going the opposite way to the natural cycles? What's changed?

 

Questions should be asked of course, im not denying that but, I as a right wing tory get accused of 'knowing the price of everything and the value of nothing' where as people who have no uncertainty principle on what will be happening in 100 years time get off scot free, just because that's the 'trendy' thing to say, I question anything myself until I see it with my own eyes, so don't think I am saying that global temps wont for sure be higher than they are now, but I believe that there are so many things that could swing it the other way before then, I just don't think its worth making decent peoples lives a misery by taxing them to the hilt.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Questions should be asked of course, im not denying that but, I as a right wing tory get accused of 'knowing the price of everything and the value of nothing' where as people who have no uncertainty principle on what will be happening in 100 years time get off scot free, just because that's the 'trendy' thing to say, I question anything myself until I see it with my own eyes, so don't think I am saying that global temps wont for sure be higher than they are now, but I believe that there are so many things that could swing it the other way before then, I just don't think its worth making decent peoples lives a misery by taxing them to the hilt.

 

Opinions on taxation doesn't change the reality of the science.

But if you're going to go down the road of costs, what about the billions in subsidies given by the UK to fossil fuels companies? The cost of foreign wars to protect energy supplies? The health costs from pollution due to fossil fuels? I think they add up to considerably more than the green tax.

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Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia

Absurdly hot year?  You are doing and suggesting the same thing but from another angle.  I have lots of family living in Oz and they spoke of nothing about absurdly hot temps.....

 

BFTP

 

At the end of September it was the hottest 12 months period on record in Australia. September recorded the highest monthly anomaly for any month on record.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a005-sep-2013-warmest-on-record.shtml

 

 

The result was bad bushfires in early October in NSW. Typically you expect them in Late Nov-Jan in NSW.

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

But when you have a good grasp of why it cooled and warmed over seemingly very predictable cycles, and then it appears to be following that exact cycle once more, cooling toward the next glacial period for 8,000 years, only for it to suddenly start going in the opposite direction and start warming at rates not seen for many millennia, then you gotta start asking some questions! Why aren't we going the opposite way to the natural cycles? What's changed?

Because those natural cycles only kicked in over the last six or seven years and yet we've seen a pause in global temps for going on 17 years. Somethings wrong with the the theory on AGW and more than likely it's down to climate sensitivity  and how climate models underestimate these.

At the end of September it was the hottest 12 months period on record in Australia. September recorded the highest monthly anomaly for any month on record.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a005-sep-2013-warmest-on-record.shtml

 

 

The result was bad bushfires in early October in NSW. Typically you expect them in Late Nov-Jan in NSW.

Any yet these wild fires have occurred many times during the same period of time going of past records.

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