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Super Typhoon Haiyan


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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

JTWC have issued their last advisory as Haiyan moves further inland. Shear is affecting Haiyan, for the first time in it's life, and this, along with frictional drag across land, will quickly dissipate the system. So Haiyan looks about done as a tropical cyclone, but the clearup and recovery is far from it Posted Image

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Tropical Storm HAIYAN: Probability of tropical storm winds to 36 hours lead

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

Tacloban Airport NOTAM

RPLL-C0828/13

A) RPVA D Z ROMUALDEZ

B ) 2013 NOV 10 13:48 C) 2013 NOV 30 09:30 EST

E) TACLOBAN AP OPEN TO MIL AND HUMANITARIAN FLTS, AND LTD COMMERCIAL OPS FM SUNRISE TO SUNSET. RMK: ONLY C-130, TURBOPROP (ATR, Q4, Q3, ETC) AND AND BLW ACFT CAT.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

What more comment can you add to the disaster reaped on the Philippines by natures full force? They have had a terrible time of it this year and this has topped all expectations and not in a good way.

 

Philippines declares ‘state of national calamity’ after typhoon

 

post-6667-0-90497700-1384178197_thumb.jp

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f4346872-4a86-11e3-9a21-00144feabdc0.html#slide0

Edited by Coast
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Posted
  • Location: Barnet, North London
  • Location: Barnet, North London

Hi all,I'm wondering....why such a strong storm - for that matter why such so many strong storms this season in the Western Pacific?

 

I haven't seen anything in the SST anomaly charts to indicate lots of warm water for "fuel".

 

Steve M

Edited by smich
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Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

What more comment can you add to the disaster reaped on the Philippines by natures full force? They have had a terrible time of it this year and this has topped all expectations and not in a good way.

 

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f4346872-4a86-11e3-9a21-00144feabdc0.html#slide0

It shouldn't be a suprise really, I mean they did have a 190mph+ Storm.

 

Just look at EF5 tornado damage and you will see what I mean.Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury

So sorry for going off topic slightly but whilst we hypothesise, forecast, speculate and discuss the storm ( and yes I admit to being one of them and please don't think I am having a go at anyone but who else is feeling couldn't give a flying muck at this moment in time when you hear that the situation in the phillipines is now so really very terribly desperate?

Maybe it is the media sensationalising a little.. Although I suspect not. All I can think of right now is for gods sake please get food and water to these people. Please. Please. Now and plenty of it..

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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

So sorry for going off topic slightly but whilst we hypothesise, forecast, speculate and discuss the storm ( and yes I admit to being one of them and please don't think I am having a go at anyone but who else is feeling couldn't give a flying muck at this moment in time when you hear that the situation in the phillipines is now so really very terribly desperate?

 

 

 

I completely agree. When seeing such horrible pictures of devastation, you really start to realize what impact such cyclone has. It makes one feel really humble.

 

 

Hi all,I'm wondering....why such a strong storm - for that matter why such so many strong storms this season in the Western Pacific?

 

I haven't seen anything in the SST anomaly charts to indicate lots of warm water for "fuel".

 

Steve M

 

 

I think this is a question which can't be answered that easily. One indicator might be that there was an active phase of a Kelvin wave in the end of October in the West Pacific (around 120W).

Posted Image

This picture shows the past and future Kelvin wave activity. An active phase of such Kelvin wave could enhance the threat of TC formation. The active phases are indicated with blue (negative). Note the large area of an active phase of a Kelvin wave over the western Pacific in the end of october.

 

Some more search shows that the MJO would suggest a lack of TC activity in the WPAC.

Posted Image

 

This chart shows the MJO anomalies expressed in Outgoing Longwave Radiation. The non-active phase is indicated in yellow (without going much in detail, as my knowledge is far from adequate about MJO). This phase is expressed in a lack of precipitation, and this would normally decrease the chance of development of a tropical cyclone. This yellow color was mostly present around the Philippines in October. However, this thinking goes completely against what we've seen so far. Strange, to say the least.

 

The only thing I can say is that there are no firm signals which argued for a very busy October. So I fear I can't answer your question.

 

 

 

More information about MJO expressed in OLR anomalies can be found here:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Average-OLR

 

 

 

Sources:

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/forecast.html

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Average-OLR

http://monitor.cicsnc.org/mjo/archive/2013-10-21/ (more composites of different indices can be found here).

Edited by Vorticity0123
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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

Vorticity, or anyone else - the GFS kelvin wave forecast indicates another very active period for later this month - could that indicate continued strong cyclone activity in the area of the Phillipines?

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Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

Daily Star headline

'Killer Storm to hit Uk'

 

Oh my gosh, this is not funny at all

 

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/400035320806137856/photo/1

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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

Vorticity, or anyone else - the GFS kelvin wave forecast indicates another very active period for later this month - could that indicate continued strong cyclone activity in the area of the Phillipines?

The answer is: yes it could, but signals for an active final period of the typhoon season are -once again- quite mixed (taking the GFS MSLP maps into account).

 

First, I think I made a mistake regarding Kelvin waves. Even in modern science, there is still a lot of uncertanity as wheather and how those Kelvin Waves interfere with TC development. There seem to be indications of enhanced TC activity because of those waves, but no firm evidence has yet showed up concerning these waves.

There was also a scientific article, stating that:

"No consensus has been found regarding the role of Kelvin waves in tropical cyclone activity".

Source: Schreck, Carl J., John Molinari, 2011: Tropical Cyclogenesis Associated with Kelvin Waves and the Madden–Julian Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev.,139, 2723–2734.

 

However, another article states that the Kelvin waves do enhance the chance on TC development (though only stated for the Atlantic).

Source: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/documents/publications/Dissertation.pdf

 

Concluding: I think I was a little too quick stating the above. My excuses for that.

 

A good site regarding the chances of TC formation up to 2 weeks out, is the one below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/ (updated every week).

An in-depth blog regarding Kelvin waves (without going too much into detail) can be found here:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/TomTaylor/largescale-atmospheric-equatorial-waves

And finally for Kelvin waves, a link with some basic information about the different shallow wave structures and their properties:

http://www.kylemacritchie.com/equatorial-wave-background/equatorial-wave-theory/

 

 

BTW: I'm sorry to go a little OT.

Edited by Vorticity0123
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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

Maybe it is the media sensationalising a little.. Although I suspect not. All I can think of right now is for gods sake please get food and water to these people. Please. Please. Now and plenty of it..

 

On Radio 4 this eveing they were interviewing a bunch of kids who were waiting for food. They were asked had they eaten today and you could hear most saying yes. The 'report' then went on to discuss how people hadn't eaten in days. I just hope that we dont see too much sensationalisation over this tradgey.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury

Yes I just read that Sainso good news. Very interesting reads of posts above from all of you by the way! Vorticity that was very interesting so thanks for that.

Yep lets hope more aid gets through now. I am sure it is steadily and steathily as the military are flipping brilliant at this whichever nation..

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury

Daily Star headline'Killer Storm to hit Uk'Oh my gosh, this is not funny at allhttps://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/400035320806137856/photo/1

Omg.. So do you think it will destroy the daily star then too? Wow. Here's hoping.
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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

A little bit of good news, it seems! Officials say the death toll is not expected to climb above 2500, compared to the 10000 originally estimated. Hopefully the people that are now homeless will be getting aid as soon as possible. http://live.reuters.com/Event/World_News

I saw that and really hope it's true. However, I think the originator of the story, who to me has really not behaved as a true leader, is Benigno Aquino.I was thinking, just before the storm hit, he was not great. He said words to the effect of 'Filipinos stand together and we'll be alright!' He's since stomped out of a meeting in a fit of pique when asked questions he didn't like. Another bad politician to me and I don't really like 'good' ones!Frankly I don't trust his announcements.Anyway, I've just texted Crisis to 70000, to do a very small bit. Edited by Steve C
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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

Vorticity, or anyone else - the GFS kelvin wave forecast indicates another very active period for later this month - could that indicate continued strong cyclone activity in the area of the Phillipines?

 

To give a more sophisticated answer, the analysis of the CPC (climate predicition center of NOAA) is out. It generally shows below average rainfall over the west Pacific, greatly diminishing the potential of TC development occuring in the next 2 weeks. 

 

Posted Image

 

But as always, there are some uncertanities in such forecast. But now, this is especially so.

 

Quoting a part of the CPC anlysis:

 

 There continues to be a large amount of uncertainty regarding the MJO forecast over the next two weeks. Dynamical models differ in their various solutions, with the UKMET forecast being closest to a continuous MJO event, the ECMWF suggesting little coherent signal, and the GFS is somewhere in between.

 

 

Concluding, even the experts are uncertain of the chances of a TC occuring in the WPAC, but the odds seem to be (luckily) against that.

 

For the full article, see http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/

I hope your question is answered satisfactory.

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

@ Vorticity. Posted Image

Thank you very much; good news if a respite can allow the relief effort to continue without more weather problems.

I'll bookmark the links in my growing tropical file.

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Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL

One of my friends who is in the Philippines has said that the government is only letting aid through if it has pad the tax. This just shows how useless the government is

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury

Hey all, been watching the updates on the relief as well as looking at some images before and after posted on Internet. What I did find baffling if that is the right word is that stadium right next to the sea used as an evacuation centre which pretty much survived as well as some old churches. Yes I know it is all done to construction but it isn't just modern construction. Clearly it is the quality of construction. I am aware that most of the homes were just literally tin shacks for some. Even so isn't it incredible that done structures survived the sustained winds of 180mph... That is quite incredible isn't it?

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Why do the blasted media always over hype? Of course bad news sells , good news does not!!!Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image Any very glad the death toll is much lower at the moment, but this is of course early days,,,,,,Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

I'm glad I could be of some help Posted Image It's indeed a very good thing that the Philippines won't be terrorized by more TC's or heavy rain, so that the rebuild can begin.

@ Vorticity. Posted Image

Thank you very much; good news if a respite can allow the relief effort to continue without more weather problems.

I'll bookmark the links in my growing tropical file.

 

Currently, discussions of wheather we (as humas) caused this cat.5 typhoon are starting to pile up. In my opinion, human-caused global warming won't have caused the cyclone, but it definitely could have helped bringing the cyclone to its extreme intensity.

 

What could actually have caused the explosive intensification and monstrous intensity of Haiyan is very high SSTS, extending to a great depth. Though the surface waters near the Philippines seem to be near average, the waters just below this surface (up to 100 m depth) are up to 5 degrees above average. 

 

Posted Image

This map shows the anomalies of the SSTS at 100 meters below the surface. Note that the track of Haiyan passed directly over a large area with anomalies up to 3 degrees Celsius.

 

The surface warming could have occured because of more intense trade winds toward the west, increasing the pile up of warm watersjust to the east of the Philippines. This phenomenon is not yet well understood, but such extensive heating has a very likely link to global warming, as the ocean takes heat up at a very slow pace. This in combination with altering climate patterns (the so called Walker circulation, an indicator of those trade winds, is anomalously strong since 1990). However, nothing is set in stone yet, so one should be cautious to point directly toward any reason.

 

A link containing the full story about this warming can be found here:

http://dutch.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2579

 

Another theory is that a very strong jet stream may have contributed to the RI of Haiyan, providing lots of ventillation to the cyclone. The theory can be found at one of the bloggers at the link I posted above. This theory is a lot less likely, though.

Posted Image

This chart shows the strength of the jet stream when Haiyan was to the east of the Philippines, about to begin its RI.

 

And finally, a very interesting blog about the small swirls noted in Haiyan's eye (mesovortices). An interesting read.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/24hourprof/comment.html?entrynum=81

Edited by Vorticity0123
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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

 

Deadliest Tropical Cyclones in History
The 35 Deadliest Tropical Cyclones in World History
Rank Name / Areas of Largest Loss Year Ocean Area Deaths 1. Great Bhola Cyclone, Bangladesh 1970 (Nov 12) Bay of Bengal 300,000 - 500,000 2. Hooghly River Cyclone, India and Bangladesh 1737 Bay of Bengal 300,000 3. Haiphong Typhoon, Vietnam 1881 West Pacific 300,000 4. Coringa, India 1839 Bay of Bengal 300,000 5. Backerganj Cyclone, Bangladesh 1584 Bay of Bengal 200,000 6. Great Backerganj Cyclone, Bangladesh 1876 Bay of Bengal 200,000 7. Chittagong, Bangladesh 1897 Bay of Bengal 175,000 8. Super Typhoon Nina, China 1975 (Aug 5) West Pacific 171,000 9. Cyclone 02B, Bangladesh 1991 (May 5) Bay of Bengal 138,866 10. Cyclone Nargis, Myanmar 2008 (May 3) Bay of Bengal 138,366 11. Swatlow, China 1922 (Jul 27) West Pacific 100,000 12. Great Bombay Cyclone, India 1882 Arabian Sea 100,000 13. Hakata Bay Typhoon, Japan 1281 West Pacific 65,000 14. Bangladesh 1942 (Oct 14) Bay of Bengal 61,000 15. India 1935 Bay of Bengal 60,000 16. Calcutta, India 1864 Bay of Bengal 60,000 17. Barisal, Bangladesh 1822 Bay of Bengal 50,000 18. Sunderbans coast, Bangladesh 1699 Bay of Bengal 50,000 19. India 1833 Bay of Bengal 50,000 20. India 1854 Bay of Bengal 50,000 21. Wenchou, China 1912 (Aug) West Pacific 50,000 22. Bengal Cyclone, Calcutta, India 1942 Bay of Bengal 40,000 23. Bangladesh 1912 Bay of Bengal 40,000 24. Bangladesh 1919 Bay of Bengal 40,000 25. Canton, China 1862 West Pacific 37,000 26. Bangladesh 1965 (May 11) Bay of Bengal 36,000 27. Backerganj (Barisal), Bangladesh 1767 Bay of Bengal 30,000 28. Barisal, Bangladesh 1831 Bay of Bengal 22,000 29. Great Hurricane, Lesser Antilles Islands 1780 Atlantic 22,000 30. Chittagong, Bangladesh 1963 (May 28) Bay of Bengal 22,000 31. Great Coringa Cyclone, India 1789 Bay of Bengal 20,000 32. Nagasaki Typhoon, Japan 1828 Western Pacific 15,000 33. Urir, Bangladesh 1985 (May 28) Bay of Bengal 15,000 34. Devi Taluk, SE India 1977 (Nov 12) Bay of Bengal 14,204 35. Bangladesh 1965 (May 31) Bay of Bengal 12,047
Death counts from large killer cyclones are highly uncertain, particulary for those before 1900. The above rankings are somewhat speculative. Information sources: EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database; Banglapedia, Wikipedia, Climate change impacts and adaptation assessment in Bangladesh" by Anwar Ali, and Encyclopedia of Hurricanes, Typhoons, and Cyclones (1999), by David Longshore.
 
Richard's Comments:
 
Having received many emails stating the "worst storm in history" in the Philippines I did some searches. Looking at the global warming angle on Typhoon Haiyan, which is quoted everywhere as .... "The worst storm in history... " -  this is simply not historically factual.
 
While the storm and its damage is horrifying, if you go through the historical records you will find that its not true.  Its some sort of exaggeration made by a CNN and other media reporters WITHOUT any historical facts behind it. The statement is without truthful basis  This is then taken up by everyone else.
 
What this does is to distort the truth of the current weather/climate conditions on the planet.  If this was not the WORST storm in history, why is it being made out to be? When these exaggerated claims are made based on sheer conjecture with no history behind it , what do you conclude - that this is an overly emotional appeal to fear and for what?
best, Richard
 
PS: You have to remember that the population of the Philippines (and indeed the world) has increased multifold over the last 100 years.  So more people will die in a disaster than in past centuries. Below is the list of the worst 15 cyclones/typhoons/hurricanes recorded.
 
Note that Typhoon Haiyan is not even in the top 15, in fact, its not even in the top 35 on loss of life, or intensity.  I simply searched through the web records and within minutes found information that TOTALLY contradicted all the claims made by CNN, all media outlets, Greenpeace and the Australian Greens.  If I can do it in minutes why doesn't Greenpeace??

 

 

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