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LATE AUTUMN AND WINTER 2013/14: MILD, STORMY- SHORT COLD SNAPS LATER!


iapennell

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Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

Welcome ian to the forum and I wish you well with your predictions but unfortunately I have a policy of calling anyone who predicts more than 2 weeks ahead a fool.This winter could turn out to be the least wintery on record or it could suddenly change to a very severe second half of winter...one thing for sure no one knows!

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Posted
  • Location: Northern Lake District. 150m asl
  • Location: Northern Lake District. 150m asl

Ian your forecast has been spot on so far, do you expect any changes as we move through Jan into Feb, chance of some drier frostier weather perhaps?

 

I recorded 190mm here, 370mm is extreme 

 

Much of Cumbria didnt get below 0c which is a first in recent times anyway, even 1988 managed 3-4 ait frosts

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Posted
  • Location: Alston, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Proper Seasons,lots of frost and snow October to April, hot summers!
  • Location: Alston, Cumbria

I stick by my early assertion that there will be some short cold snaps (northwesterlies) in late January/February:  Nothing prolonged, but as Greenland and NE Canada get their coldest; there will be short blasts of Arctic NW winds behind some of the later deep depressions in what I am confident will remain a stormy outlook. In some of the short clear "ridges" following these NW snaps temperatures will drop to about -5C quite widely across the North (-10C locally in Scotland).  There will be snow quite widely across the North during these short cold snaps.  The South of England will probably get just a few flurries (maybe a covering over the Chilterns and over Dartmoor once or twice) and nothing below -5C. 

 

I do not think these conditions will be typical of late January/February:  The cold snaps will be short lived and stiff, mild west/SW winds will return after two/three days each time.  I am confident there will be no savage cold snaps from the east or northeast this winter.  If you want to pin me down on what sort of January/February we will have my predictions (with 95% confidence) are:

 

Central England January 2014:  Rainfall 100 to 150 mm;  Mean Temperature 5 to 7C.

Northern England (lowlands) January 2014: Rainfall 100 to 200 mm; Mean Temperature 4 to 6C

Scotland (lowlands) January 2014: Rainfall 100 to 250 mm; Mean Temperature 3 to 5.5C.

 

Central England February 2014: Rainfall 80 to 140 mm; Mean temperature 4 to 6C.

Northern England (lowlands) February 2014: Rainfall 80 to 200 mm; Mean Temperature 3.5 to 5.5C

Scotland (lowlands) February 2014: Rainfall 80 to 200 mm; Mean Temperature 2 to 5C. 

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Clearly the North Atlantic Index and Arctic Oscillation are both in strongly positive phase and this shows little sign of shifting.

AO is actually negative at the moment http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gifAnd NAO is neutralhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

Two very good threads and makes for some interesting reading with well explained scientific reasoning.

I can understand the reasoning behind the Canadian sea ice and a stronger storm track but by mid

November or earlier this area is always frozen up anyway.

Late January and February in to March could still be your undoing if we do see a SSW but other wise

your long range posted in October for the 13/14 winter is spot on so far and to be called a Comic is

insulting to say the least.

I hope you put that Christmas bet on.

I have been trying to get my head round (and succeeding to a limited  extent) globally averaged atmospheric

angular momentum and its impacts on sensible weather and how the differing +&- mountain torques, friction

torques and momentums affect the atmosphere and earth.

I often look at the angular momentum budgets on the ESRL:PSD: PSD map room site but often end up tying

myself in knots trying to decipher what implications these will have on the tropospheric synoptics and wonder

would you be able to describe these events and their impacts on atmospheric angular momentum but in a

easier to understand laymans terms. Cheers

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Alston, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Proper Seasons,lots of frost and snow October to April, hot summers!
  • Location: Alston, Cumbria

Two very good threads and makes for some interesting reading with well explained scientific reasoning.

I can understand the reasoning behind the Canadian sea ice and a stronger storm track but by mid

November or earlier this area is always frozen up anyway.

Late January and February in to March could still be your undoing if we do see a SSW but other wise

your long range posted in October for the 13/14 winter is spot on so far and to be called a Comic is

insulting to say the least.

I hope you put that Christmas bet on.

I have been trying to get my head round (and succeeding to a limited  extent) globally averaged atmospheric

angular momentum and its impacts on sensible weather and how the differing +&- mountain torques, friction

torques and momentums affect the atmosphere and earth.

I often look at the angular momentum budgets on the ESRL:PSD: PSD map room site but often end up tying

myself in knots trying to decipher what implications these will have on the tropospheric synoptics and wonder

would you be able to describe these events and their impacts on atmospheric angular momentum but in a

easier to understand laymans terms. Cheers

 

@ Cooling Climate

 

Seems like the winter is going to turn out even more mild than I had anticipated on the basis of the above prediction.  Its now 22nd January and so far this month (at over 400 metres' elevation in the North Pennines) we have not dropped below -1C:  The last time it was as consistently mild as this through the winter was 1988-89!  I still stand by a short cold snap or two in February (from the north-west) but nothing colder than -5C over the lowlands.  Most of the latter part of the winter will still be mild but stromy at times (as indeed the longer term weather maps tend to suggest).

 

In simple layman's terms there is an explanation of the Law of conservation of Angular Momentum on my other posting on how this (along with the effect of the strong Summer Sun on the oceans) modulates the British weather in winter: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78963-can-the-strong-summer-sun-and-the-conservation-of-angular-momentum-stop-severe-winter-cold-over-britain-yes-it-can/

 

Ian  

Edited by iapennell
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Posted
  • Location: Matlock Derbyshire
  • Location: Matlock Derbyshire

just found your original post, and your October forecast seems spot on, well done for putting it out there.

Same issues here with frosts, living and working in north Derbyshire, and at some elevation air frosts have been rare this winter. Use the old practical method how many times do you scape ice of

your car windscreen at 7.00am or 8.00am. Not many times this winter, maybe 6 or 7 times and 2 of them in last week.

 

hers hoping for some snowfall in next few weeks. Been a few years since we went so long into winter here without settling snow.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Northern Lake District. 150m asl
  • Location: Northern Lake District. 150m asl

Any chance of a spring forecast now Ian? I must say you have been pretty spot on - looks like a very short lived cold snap coming up as forecast

Edited by Lake District Blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Bude
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather...heavy snow and heat waves
  • Location: Bude

Any forecast ideas for March/April Ian?Late cold, or warm spring? your thoughts are much appriciated.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Just read your thoughts on this winter for the first time, and well done so far, almost spot on...

 

Interesting to note how you mention one or two arctic outbreaks in February - certainly potential, perhaps more likely to surface during second half of the month.

 

Yes a spring forecast would be good..

 

 A key factor was the SST's over north atlantic being very warm going into late autumn.

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