west pacific Super Typhoon Lekima

[Somerset Squall]

Yet another tropical depression in this active October in the West Pacific has formed, and is located well out in the far east of the basin, nearly 1000 miles east of Guam. Winds are 30kts currently. Convection is expanding over the LLCC, and banding features are taking shape, so it won't be long before 28W is a tropical storm IMO. Shear is low, waters are warm and there is plenty of moisture for 28W to tap into. So, again, we may see a fairly intense typhoon in the West Pacific from this system.

The subtropical ridge to the north of the depression will be the primary steering influence. 28W is forecast to move west-northwestwards then turn north as it reaches the western extent of the ridge. By day 4, weakening should begin as 28W runs into high shear.

Edited October 20, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[Vorticity0123]

And this system appears another candidate for RI. Just look at how quickly 28W is organizing! Very impressive to witness.

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/28W/flash-vis-long.html

 

[Somerset Squall]

28W has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Lekima by JMA, with winds of 35kts. JTWC still have Lekima as a 30kt depression! However, as Vorticity says, Lekima is likely to be rapidly intensifying right now. There is plenty of convection over the LLCC, with tightly wrapped spiral banding flanking it. This is a mature tropical storm already, and I feel the forecasting agencies are going to be playing catch up with this one. In reality, I feel Lekima will be a typhoon by tomorrow or very close to it. The satellite signature is very impressive and screams out that a monster is in the making.

[Coast]

 

A tropical depression that developed north of Pohnpei yesterday was upgraded to a tropical storm.

The weather system was declared a storm by the Japanese Meteorological Agency several hours before the National Weather Service. The Japanese agency named the storm Lekima. The National Weather Service upgraded the depression to a storm at 2 p.m. today.

 

The weather service is tracking the storm as it moves on a northerly path. It's expected to move faster throughout the night, and turn in northwest direction. There are currently no watches or warnings announced for Guam in regards to this storm. According to forecaster Brandon Aydlett, Tropical Storm Lekima is expected to pass east of the Marianas and the service will continue to monitor the storm as it travels on a northerly path.

 

 

http://www.guampdn.com/article/20131021/NEWS01/131021005/WEATHER-UPDATE-Tropical-Storm-Lekima-forms-north-Pohnpei

[Somerset Squall]

Lekima is not quite a typhoon, but it will be one very soon. The central dense overcast is solid, and there are hints of an eye trying to emerge. Winds are up to 55kts currently. Conditions are ripe for further strengthening as the storm heads northwestwards.

[Somerset Squall]

Lekima has been upgraded to a typhoon with winds of 65kts. JTWC forecast a peak of 115kts (cat 4).

 

 

 

 

 

[Coast]

Looks like a complete swerve:

 

 

 

remarks:

 

220300z position near 15.4n 157.7e.

Typhoon 28w (Lekima), located approximately 777 nm east of andersen

AFB, Guam, has tracked northwestward at 15 knots over the past six

hours. Maximum significant wave height at 220000z is 21 feet. Next

warnings at 220900z, 221500z, 222100z and 230300z. Refer to typhoon

26w (Francisco) warnings (wtpn33 pgtw) for six-hourly updates.//

 

 

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/western-pacific/2013/Typhoon-Lekima?text=public

 

Guam - If you're debating whether or not to take off those typhoon shutters, weather officials confirm Typhoon Lekima will have no direct impact to Guam or the CNMI. According to National Weather Service meteorologist Brandon Aydlett, no tropical storm watches or warnings will take effect as Lekima's closest approach will be tomorrow midday at roughly 550 miles off Guam. Currently Lekima is 875 miles east of the island and continues its trek west-northwest at 17 miles per hour.

 

http://www.kuam.com/story/23751612/2013/10/22/typhoon-lekima-wont-affect-guam-or-cnmi

[Sainsbo]

Lekima certainly did bomb overnight! Lekima has developed a pinhole eye, and sustained winds have gone from 85 mph to 120 mph in 6 hours.

 

JTWC now have Lekima a Category three, which is forecast to continue to intensify and eventually become a Category 5, and the fouth super typhoon of the year. Conditions look favourable for the rapid intensification to continue.

 

 

Edited October 22, 2013 by Sainsbo

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed Sainsbo, what an amazing October this has been. Up until now, storms have struggled in the West Pacific, but it's like a switch has flicked and now we are getting one intense storm after the other. As you say, Lekima is now a 105kt cat 3 and will likely become the world's fourth cat 5 (and West Pacific's third cat 5) very soon. That eye looks perfectly defined, and that central dense overcast looks solid. Interesting to note Lekima is smaller than Wipha and Francisco were too.

 

 

 

[Sainsbo]

Lekima seems to have defied the odds again and has become a category 5 super typhoon about 12-18 hours before scheduled. Sustained winds are currently at 160mph with gusts at 195mph, and it looks that it could strengthen further. The only thing stopping Lekima strengthening much more will be eyewall replacement which could happen soon.

 

[Somerset Squall]

Lekima has become a category 5 on the SS scale, the third of the West Pacific season. Winds are at 140kts. Super Typhoon Lekima has an perfectly defined eye embedded in a solid central dense overcast. Eyewall replacement cycles will largely govern the intensity of Lekima over the next 48hrs before it reaches cooler waters and increasing shear, which will induce weakening.

 

 

 

 

 

[Coast]

 

 

Tropical Storm Lekima intensified quickly early on Oct. 22 while traveling over the open waters of the Northwestern Pacific Ocean. The day before the rapid intensification, NASA's TRMM satellite passed overhead and analyzed the rainfall rates in the storm, spotting heavy rainfall in two quadrants.

 

On Oct. 22 at 0900 UTC/5 a.m. EDT, Lekima's maximum sustained winds were up to 105 knots/120.8 mph/194.5 kph. Lekima's center was located near 16.7 north and 156.1 east, about 705 nautical miles/ 811.3 miles/ 1,306 km east-northeast of Andersen Air Force Base, Guam. Lekima is moving to the northwest at 18 knots/20.7 mph/33.3 kph.Satellite data on Oct. 22 showed that Lekima now has a well-formed eye, about 15 nautical miles/17.2 miles/27.7 km wide with tight bands of thunderstorms wrapping into it.

Lekima is forecast to continue on a northwesterly track for the next several days before making a turn to the northeast as it reaches the island of Iwo To.

 

 

 

http://phys.org/news/2013-10-nasa-hint-typhoon-lekima-rapidly.html#jCp

[Konstantinos]

How possible is a Fujiwhara effect with Francisco?

[Somerset Squall]

Not likely. The two systems are, and will remain, too far away from each other for that to happen, at least while they are tropical.

Lekima remains a 140kt category 5 super typhoon this morning. There are no signs, at least yet, of an eyewall replacement cycle.

Edited October 23, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[Vorticity0123]

How possible is a Fujiwhara effect with Francisco?

 

In the short term, the two cyclones are way too far apart to give any chance on a Fujiwara interaction. However, in the extended Taus (T120) the cyclones are getting really close to each other, but both cyclones have become extratropical during that time. The GFS merges the extratropical remnants of both cyclones:

 

Here the cyclones are still quite far apart:

 

 

At T72 they are starting to get closer to each other: 

 

And finally at T108 it shows the cyclones as one merged low pressure area.

 

Note that this is a model run, so it may or may not play out. To summarize it all up: The two cyclones will interact with each other, but it will be in the extratropical stage, and this isn't a real Fuhjiwara interaction. It is quite interesting though, to see two ex-TC's being so close to each other.

 

Source: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnoas.html

Edited October 23, 2013 by Vorticity0123

[Vorticity0123]

Some more information about the possible interaction between Francisco and Lekima:

 

It has so far proved a daunting task to predict the course of Francisco, Hiramatsu said, partly because the “more fierce†Lekima, the year’s 28th typhoon, may affect its path.

 

“If it wasn’t for Lekima, Francisco would just go away up north,†he said. But the stronger and faster Lekima is likely to block and even disrupt Francisco, preventing its swift run to the north and altering its path.

The Meteorological Agency said the two storms will likely come in closest proximity to each other Saturday, when Francisco is forecast to linger over the Izu island chain south of Tokyo, unable to move due to the stronger force of Lekima just to its east.

This interaction between two typhoons in close proximity is popularly known as the “Fujiwara Effect,†named after the late meteorologist Sakuhei Fujiwara

 

An interesting piece in this article says that Lekima will alter Francisco's track in such a way, that it will no longer make a direct hit on Japan. Though I'm not sure the above stated is the case, it is fascinating to see that the development of another category five cyclone could actually save lives in Japan.

 

Source (also for full article): http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2013/10/23/national/big-typhoons-may-collide-off-honshu/#.UmgBpfnIbcA

[Somerset Squall]

Mmm, I'm not sure about the last part, I don't think they will get near enough to each other whilst tropical. Whilst extratropical maybe. Then again, I may be proved wrong!

[Vorticity0123]

Mmm, I'm not sure about the last part, I don't think they will get near enough to each other whilst tropical. Whilst extratropical maybe. Then again, I may be proved wrong!

 

What I think, is that Lekima won't modify Francisco's track itself, but the steering environment around it. But indeed, we'll see wat this season has still in store for us!

[Somerset Squall]

Lekima still a category 5.

 

 

 

[Coast]

Super Typhoon Lekima is expected to slowly weakenThe Guam weather office says Typhoon Lekima is now a super typhoon with winds at its centre of 255 kilometres an hour. But the storm, which has not yet come close to land, is now moving to the northeast of the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas. Tropical force winds extend up to 200 kilometres from the typhoon’s centre and the storm is now 500 kilometres from the CNMI’s largest island, Saipan. The Guam weather office says Lekima is expected to slowly weaken from today, adding that by tonight it should weaken below super typhoon intensity.

 

http://www.rnzi.com/pages/news.php?op=read&id=80066

Edited October 24, 2013 by Coast

[Konstantinos]

Wikipedia: The effect becomes noticeable when they approach within 1,400 kilometres (870 mi) of each other. According google earth, this time the distance of the eyes is 1.300 Km - 1.350 km. Google Earth is not correct? What is the distance now?

Edited October 24, 2013 by Konstantinos

[Vorticity0123]

 

Wikipedia: The effect becomes noticeable when they approach within 1,400 kilometres (870 mi) of each other. According google earth, this time the distance of the eyes is 1.300 Km - 1.350 km. Google Earth is not correct? What is the distance now?

 

 

Note that the Fujiwara effect is barely noticeable at a distance of 1350 km to each other, and it may even not be there at all, depending on the size en vertical coherency of the cyclones. Also consider that Francisco is barely a tropical cyclone, as it is quickly transitioning into an extratropical cyclone. This also means that pronounced Fujiwara interaction is not likely.

 

 

The FSU phase diagram also shows that Francisco is becoming more frontal in nature (as from the UKMET model):

 

In this diagram, A is the starting point, C is the point where it is currently at, and Z is the point at a few days out. It shows that the core of Francisco is still warm, but has become asymmetric.

 

There is actually some indication of a possible Fujiwara interaction, as Lekima is to the left of its forecasted track (though this could also be a wobble in its track): http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=westpac&sname=28W&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0 (the eye can be seen clearly to the left of its forecasted track) 

EDIT: Right now, the track has been shifted more to the left to represent the more leftward motion of Lekima, so it won't be applicable anymore.

 

As for Francisco, I am unable to pinpoint the center of the cyclone.

 

The Fujiwara effect implies that the cyclones are coming together a little:

 

which could be occuring right now.

 

In short, I am uncertain if there is a Fujiwara interaction going on, but there is an indication that this could really be the case.

 

More in-depth information about the Fujiwara interaction can be found here:

http://www.goes-r.gov/users/comet/tropical/textbook_2nd_edition/navmenu.php_tab_9_page_7.2.0.htm

 

Sources:

http://www.goes-r.gov/users/comet/tropical/textbook_2nd_edition/navmenu.php_tab_9_page_7.2.0.htm

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

Edited October 24, 2013 by Vorticity0123

[Vorticity0123]

Lekima remains a intense-looking storm, though winds have come down to 115 knots by now. (as from JTWC)

 

Nice to note is that Lekima has a clear double eyewall structure right now. This is a classic example of an Eyewall Replacement Cycle.

 

 

 

Also captured very nicely in mimic imagery from Cimss:

The inner eyewall can be seen slowly fading, while a huge outer eyewall becomes more pronounced.

 

Sources:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2013_28W/webManager/displayGifsBy12hr_05.html

http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

[Coast]

NASA sees Super-typhoon Lekima ready to make the curve

 

##

 

Super-typhoon Lekima is poised to "make the curve" in the northwestern Pacific Ocean today. The storm's track is expected to shift from a northwesterly direction, and curve to northeasterly direction because it has started encountering mid-latitude westerly winds and a trough. NASA's Terra satellite captured an image of Lekima just before it began its directional shift.

 

he Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument aboard NASA's Terra satellite captured a visible image of Super-typhoon Lekima in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean on Oct. 24 at 0105 UTC/Oct. 23 at 9:05 p.m. EDT as it ran into an elongated area of low pressure from the west, as well as mid-latitude westerlies and wind shear. Those factors started to elongate the system and change the storm's direction. The MODIS image showed a well- defined eye, about 25 nautical miles/28.7 miles/46.3 km wide and a thick eyewall of powerful thunderstorms around it.

 

On Oct. 24 at 11 a.m. EDT/1500 UTC, Super-typhoon Lekima's maximum sustained winds were near 130 knots/149 mph/240.8 kph. It was centered near 23.2 north and 145.4 east, about 274 nautical miles/315 miles/ 507 km east-southeast of Iwo To. Lekima was still traveling to the northwest at 14 knots/16.1 mph/25.9 kph toward the Japanese Island of Iwo To, but it is expected to curve and head toward the northeast in the next day.

 

Lekima is a powerful storm and is generating very rough seas. Wave heights are near 45 feet/13.7 meters, and those waves are propagating toward Iwo To.

Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center noted that as Lekima moves northeast it will get embedded in the mid-latitude westerly winds. Cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing wind shear will weaken the storm, and it will become extra-tropical in a couple of days.

 

http://phys.org/news/2013-10-nasa-super-typhoon-lekima-ready.html#jCp

[Somerset Squall]

Westerly shear is taking it's toll on Lekima. Winds are down to 90kts, cat 2 on the SS scale. There remains some deep convection over the LLCC, and strong banding. Lekima is heading north, but will soon turn northeast as it becomes directly involved with the mid-lattitude westerlies. The interaction with the westerlies will cause extratropical transition.