east pacific Tropical Storm Priscilla

[Somerset Squall]

An area of low pressure to the south-southwest of Tropical Storm Octave and well southwest of the southern tip of Baja California has become Tropical Storm Priscilla, with winds of 35kts. Priscilla is being sheared, partly to do with it's proximity to Tropical Storm Octave. The LLCC is located on the northeastern edge of an area of very intense convection. Despite the shear, Priscilla should still strengthen at least modestly over the next day or so. In a couple days time, shear will ease as Octave weakens, but Priscilla will be over cooler water by then, causing weakening.

 

A ridge to the east over Mexico will push Priscilla north-northeast over the next day or so. Thereafter, the ridge is forecast to break down, and weakening Priscilla will be left to veer towards the west in the low level flow whilst it dissipates.

[Somerset Squall]

Priscilla has managed to strengthen to 40kts. Shear is still affecting the cyclone, displacing the majority of the convection southwest of the LLCC. The shear could ease tomorrow, but Priscilla will be heading into an area of dry air, and then cooler water, so significant intensification appears unlikely.

[Coast]

 

 

Tropical Storm Priscilla formed on Monday morning to the southwest of Tropical Storm Octave. The storm is expected to stay relatively weak over next few days, as it moves northward through midweek.

 

By late week, Priscilla is forecast to eventually dissipate as it turns gradually to the northwest.Priscilla is no threat to any land areas

 

 

 

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/tropical-storm-priscilla-forms-20131014

[Somerset Squall]

Shear has prevented persistant convection with Priscilla. Without persistant convection, Priscilla's LLCC has weakened. Priscilla has been downgraded to a tropical depression, with winds of 30kts. Shear is easing over Priscilla, especially now Octave has dissipated. However, dry air is wrapping around the depression, so further weakening is expected as Priscilla veers west.

[Coast]

Tropical Storm Priscilla expected to punch over next couple of days

 

Tropical Storm Priscilla churned about in the Pacific Ocean off the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico, Tuesday, weather forecasters said. Priscilla, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, was about 565 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving north at 8 mph, the National Hurricane Center said in its 2 a.m. PDT advisory.

 

No coastal watches or warnings were posted. Priscilla was expected to shift to the northwest Tuesday then turn toward the west-northwest by early Wednesday. Priscilla was forecast to weaken gradually in the next couple of days, becoming a tropical depression later Tuesday and degenerate to a remnant low by Wednesday night, weather forecasters said. There are no hazards affecting land, forecasters said.

 

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2013/10/15/Tropical-Storm-Priscilla-expected-to-punch-over-next-couple-of-days/UPI-12591381836944/#ixzz2hs0vKXkC

 

 

Tropical Depression PRISCILLA: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 69 hours lead