west pacific Typhoon Nari

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression 24W has formed east of the Philippines. Winds are currently at 30kts according to JMA, and 25kts according to JTWC. Convection is persisting over the LLCC, with some limited banding features forming too. Shear is low, and waters warm. Therefore, 24W is expected to strengthen. Ridging to the north is expected to push 24W on a near straight westward track, right into the Philippines. JTWC forecast 24W to become a typhoon prior to landfall. Weakening will obviously occur as the cyclone crosses land, but conditions look favourable in the South China Sea for some re-intensification. Vietnam may be in line 24W's second landfall, but this is at least a week away yet so it is uncertain.

 

 

 

[Coast]

 

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (SANTI) UPDATE NUMBER 002 

Issued at: 12:30 PM PhT (04:30 GMT) Wednesday 09 October 2013<!–

 

Tropical Depression 24W (SANTI) has slightly gained strength while slowing down over the central part of the Philippine Sea. Threat to Luzon continues…with a Projected Landfall Area over the province of Aurora on Saturday morning. Its outermost, developing rainbands are now spreading along the eastern shorelines of Catanduanes and Northern Samar.

 

This depression will slightly enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) – bringing mostly cloudy and breezy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains or thunderstorms across the western sections of Central Luzon, Metro Manila, MiMaRoPa, Spratly Islands and CaLaBaRZon today.<!–becoming more frequent with possible heavy monsoon rains along Western Zambales, Pangasinan, La Union, Ilocos Provinces, and Bataan today. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.<!–Meanwhile, the ITCZ will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Philippines especially along Metro Manila, CaLaBaRZon & Bicol Region.

 

 

http://weatherngayon.wordpress.com/2013/10/09/tropical-depression-24w-santi-update-number-002/

[Coast]

 

Tropical Depression 24W could strike the northern Philippines as a typhoon or strong tropical storm as early as Friday. Destructive, hurricane-force winds, flooding rains and an inundating storm surge will be possible, especially near a potential landfall in northeastern Luzon Island.

 

Assuming a landfall in northern Philippines, Greater Manila, the nation's capital region and main population center, could experience heavy rain and flooding. While several tropical cyclones have had significant indirect impact on the island nation, the last one to make landfall in the Philippines was Typhoon Utor (also known as Labuyo), which crossed the shores of northeastern Luzon on Aug. 12.

Following any traverse of northern Philippines, the likely path of 24W would be across the South China Sea to the Vietnam coast.

 

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/new-tropical-depression-poses-1/18624128

[Somerset Squall]

24W has become Tropical Storm Nari, with winds of 35kts. The storm has some deep, centralised convection, with good banding features. Some moderate shear appears to be affecting Nari, but this should ease soon, also allowing for increased outflow. Due to this, Nari is expected to become a typhoon prior to landfall over Luzon. Nari should weaken to a tropical storm but then regain typhoon status as it emerges into the favourable South China Sea.

[Somerset Squall]

Nari has continued to strengthen as it approaches the Philippines, and winds are now at 60kts. A central dense overcast has formed, and an eye will probably follow soon. JTWC forecast Nari to attain cat 2 typhoon status on the SS scale before landfall on Luzon.

[Coast]

 

 

 

TROPICAL STORM NARI (SANTI) UPDATE NUMBER 005 

 

Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Thursday 10 October 2013

Tropical Storm NARI (SANTI) still gaining strength...and is likely to become a Typhoon this afternoon...Outermost western rainbands continues to spread across the Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon (from Isabela down to Southern Quezon). Threat to Central and Northern Luzon increases. 

 

Residents and visitors along Luzon including Bicol Region and Batanes Group of Islands should closely monitor the development of Nari (Santi). 

 

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS 

 

As of 11:00 am today, the center of TS Nari (Santi) was located over the Central Philippine Sea...about 350 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes or 555 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora...currently moving west-northwest with an increased forward speed of 17 km/hr towards Aurora and Quirino Provinces. 

 

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 110 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 100 kilometers from the center. Nari (Santi) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Nari (Santi) is estimated to be extreme (310 mm).

 

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK* 

 

TS Nari (Santi) is expected to continue moving west-northwest during the next 24 hours...with a westward turn by 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Nari (Santi) will continue to be over the Central Philippine Sea...passing well to the north of Bicol Region on Friday morning. By midnight of Saturday, Nari (Santi) will make landfall over Aurora somewhere over or very close to the town of Casiguran...and will traverse the provinces of Quirino, Nueva Ecija, Southern Benguet and Northern Pangasinan on Saturday morning before moving into Lingayen Gulf. 

 

TS Nari (Santi) will continue to rapidly intensify during the next 24 to 48 hours...becoming a Category 1 Typhoon (TY) later today and increasing to Category 2 by Friday evening. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds reaching 165 km/hr before it makes landfall over Aurora Province. 

 

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

 

FRIDAY MORNING: Becomes a TY (Category 1) as it moves west-northwest across the Central Philippine Sea...about 205 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora [11AM OCT 11: 16.0N 124.0E @ 150kph].

 

SATURDAY MORNING: Weakens after crossing the Northern Part of Central Luzon...emerges over the Lingayen Gulf...about 15 km northwest of Dagupan City, Pangasinan [11AM OCT 12: 16.2N 120.2E @ 120kph].

 

SUNDAY MORNING: Regaining intensity as it moves across the West Philippine Sea...exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 470 km west of Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan [11AM OCT 13: 16.2N 115.4E @ 130kph]. 

 

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - where Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (101-120 kph) will be expected along the CDO (click here to know more about CDO). Possible "Eye" may also be forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Affected Areas: Central part of the Philippine Sea. 

 

INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Central part of the Philippine Sea.

 

OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Central part of the Philippine Sea and the eastern coastal areas of Eastern Luzon (from Eastern Cagayan down to Southern Quezon) & Bicol Region. (click here to know more about Rainbands). 

 

24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 310 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the west, south and near the center of Nari (Santi).

 

 

 

http://weather.com.ph/announcements/tropical-storm-nari-santi-update-number-005

[Somerset Squall]

Nari has become a typhoon, and winds are currently at 75kts, cat 1 on the SS scale. The storm has had a fleeting eye but it currently cloud filled. Heavy rains have begun to spread onto the east coast of Luzon as Nari edges nearer. Further intensification is expected prior to landfall, which is forecast to occur in just under 24hrs time.

[Somerset Squall]

Nari has strengthened further, and is now an 85kt cat 2. Could be knocking on the doors of cat 3 prior to landfall, not good news at all for Luzon. Looks to remain a typhoon throughout the crossing and could become just as strong if not stronger in the South China Sea before ploughing into Vietnam on the westwards track.

[Somerset Squall]

Nari has intensified further overnight, and is now a 100kt, cat 3 typhoon. The eye is still a little cloud filled on satellite imagery but it is small and well defined. Nari is closing in on Luzon now, spreading torrential rains accross the country already. The dangerous winds will arrive later.

[Coast]

Typhoon NARI: Storm-centered zoom at 24 hours lead

 

 

 

 

TYPHOON NARI (SANTI) HOURLY UPDATE #008B 

 

Meteomedia/WeatherPhilippines, Taguig City, Philippines 

4:43 pm PhT (Manila Time) Friday, October 11, 2013

At 4:00 PM PhT...08:00 GMT...the cloud-filled eye of Typhoon Nari was located by MTSAT-2 satellite imagery...to be near latitude 15.4º north...longitude 122.8º east or about 115 kilometers southeast of Casiguran, Aurora...and 135 kilometers east-southeast of Baler, Aurora. 

 

This powerful typhoon has maintained its Category 3 Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale status of 185 km/hr near the eye...accompanied with strong rain circulation along the eyewall. Its eyewall remains over the western part of the Central Philippine Sea and not yet affecting any land areas...but is now creeping slowly towards the coastline of Aurora. Inner rainbands spreading across the eastern shorelines of Aurora, Northern Quezon and Camarines Norte including Polillo Island...while its outer rainbands remain across the whole of Luzon including Bicol Regio, Mindoro, Marinduque and the Calamian Group of Islands.

 

 

 

http://weather.com.ph/announcements/typhoon-nari-santi-hourly-update-008b--as-of-400-pm-fri-oct-11-2013

[Somerset Squall]

Nari has intensified a little more, to 105kts. Landfall is expected tonight, but the rains are already drenching Luzon.

[Somerset Squall]

Nari weakened to 80kts crossing Luzon, but has already began to re-intensify, and is now an 85kt cat 2. I think Nari could become a cat 3 again before slamming into Vietnam.

 

There's a good video of Nari's damage to Luzon in this link: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/philippines/10374617/Typhoon-Nari-batters-the-Philippines.html

[Somerset Squall]

Nari has remained an 85kt, cat 2 typhoon. Nari is approaching Vietnam and should make landfall in a little over 24hrs time. Heavy rains however, will begin spreading inland tonight.

[Somerset Squall]

Nari is nearing landfall on the coast of Vietnam. Intensity has fallen slightly to 80kts due to land interaction and slightly cooler waters just of the coast. The storm should make landfall tonight at about this intensity.

[Somerset Squall]

The death toll from Nari on the Philippines stands at 13.

 

The typhoon is now making landfall on Vietnam with winds of 75kts. This is weaker than it's first landfall in the Philippines, but nonetheless, Nari is capable of causing life threatening floods and mudslides.

[Coast]

 

Typhoon Nari knocked down trees and damaged hundreds of houses in central Vietnam early on Tuesday, forcing the evacuation of tens of thousands of people, state media said. More than 122,000 people had been moved to safe ground in several provinces, including Quang Nam and Danang city, by late Monday before the typhoon arrived, the official Tuoi Tre (Youth) newspaper reported.

 

Nari later hit the Vietnamese coast with wind speeds of up to 102 kmh (63 mph). Soldiers were sent to help people reinforce their homes and guide ships to shelter in Danang, a famous tourist destination, state-run Voice of Vietnam radio said. More than 2,000 passengers were stranded when national carrier Vietnam Airlines cancelled 14 flights on Monday and planned to delay another eight on Tuesday, the airline said in a statement.

 

Vietnam's central region is widely exposed to the sea and is often hit during the storm season between July and October. Typhoon Nari did not affect the Central Highlands, Vietnam's coffee belt, which lies further to the south. Nari was moving west at about 15 kmph (10 mph) and was expected to weaken into a tropical depression later on Tuesday, the national weather station said.

 

 

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/10/15/uk-vietnam-storm-idUKBRE99E02920131015

 

http://youtu.be/Xl_uPIAi9FY