Mildest Winter on Record 2013/14

[Yarmy]

We are well on track for this winter to be mildest on record. This past three months I have had about 10 single figure night and 80 double figure nights which is definitely well above average for my area.

At this exact date the average minimum is 7.5c and right now at 8pm the temperature is 14.5c!

I have not seen this kind of weather in my area at this time of the year for quite a while and cannot remember the last time it was so long lasting, I do not think that this weather will wane through October like some seem to think, Infact I would say it will take to the end of November for it to go away. The models are all showing strong signals for this warmth and actually picked it up very early. It is very depressing as a winter lover and actually quite annoying as the diurnal ranges are nothing to be excited about.

And what is fun about being trapped under dark drizzly low cloud day in day out? Bills aside it is rather boring. And lets be honest if you are going on about bills so much perhaps your house is too big for alot of you.

Where is here, Smithy? Pop your location in your profile.

It will be the 1st of October tomorrow, the start of the second month of Autumn. We are miles away from winter and the current weather has zero bearing on that. You need to look at the big picture:

Deep cold penetrating into Siberia and heights building over the pole. That's what you should be looking at now for winter prospects.

Edit: Not to mention strat profiles and the like. Patience.

Edited September 30, 2013 by Yarmy

[smithyweather]

Where is here, Smithy? Pop your location in your profile.

 

It will be the 1st of October tomorrow, the start of the second month of Autumn. We are miles away from winter and the current weather has zero bearing on that.  You need to look at the big picture:

 

 

Deep cold penetrating into Siberia and heights building over the pole. That's what you should be looking at now for winter prospects.

Done! 

I do realise that, but here in Northern Ireland we generally don't really have weather this warm at this time of the year i.e. 12c at nights. I'm sure it's not rare by any means but it is not common for it to last so long.

I would like to experience a few low single figure minimums as of now but we are not going to get anywhere near that and I think that our frost will be mid-November this year. In comparison last year Castlederg recorded the first frost on September 22nd. I can wait for the cold weather but I don't like to be having 17/18c in October.

[stewfox]

We are well on track for this winter to be mildest on record.

 

I have just checked my calendar its says 30th September ? not 25th February ??

 

Have I lost the plot ??

[Yarmy]

Done! 

I do realise that, but here in Northern Ireland we generally don't really have weather this warm at this time of the year i.e. 12c at nights. I'm sure it's not rare by any means but it is not common for it to last so long.

I would like to experience a few low single figure minimums as of now but we are not going to get anywhere near that and I think that our frost will be mid-November this year. In comparison last year Castlederg recorded the first frost on September 22nd. I can wait for the cold weather but I don't like to be having 17/18c in October.

 

For comparison, 11th October 1978:

 

 

 

Exceptionally warm and then later on:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/33884-the-severe-winter-of-1978-79/

 

 

 

 

Enjoy what comes. For me, what we are getting at the moment beats westerly gales and rain hands down.

[smithyweather]

Well it is not sunny here if it was 17c everyday and 2c at night with sunshine I would be more accepting of this weather but it is constantly cloudy so I see no fun out of this.

[stewfox]

For comparison, 11th October 1978:

 

 

 

Exceptionally warm and then later on:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/33884-the-severe-winter-of-1978-79/

 

 

 

 

Enjoy what comes. For me, what we are getting at the moment beats westerly gales and rain hands down.

 

 

The sun bathing weather of October 1985 (particularly the first two weeks), Feb 86 didn't turn out to bad

[Yarmy]

Well it is not sunny here if it was 17c everyday and 2c at night with sunshine I would be more accepting of this weather but it is constantly cloudy so I see no fun out of this.

To be fair, I'm guilty of a bit of IMBYism there. It's been glorious here.

[Roger J Smith]

I would alter the earth's rotation or take other extreme measures until this outrage came to an end.

Edited September 30, 2013 by Roger J Smith

[CongletonHeat]

I would hope the following winter is even milder.

[chrcoluk]

I think it wont be mild, extreme summers tend to go with extreme winters.

[stewfox]

I think it wont be mild, extreme summers tend to go with extreme winters.

 

Afraid not

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/ssn_HadCET_mean.txt

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

By now, the polar vortex should be well and truly in gear. Instead, we have heights right at the pole, that tells me that Northern blocking will be very possible through this winter. 

Edited September 30, 2013 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[SnowObsessor90]

If  the winter were to be of dry and bright and bright variety I may just be able tolerate it despite it feeling 'wrong' , a cloudy high stuck in SITU or a locked mild zonal type pattern would probably  have me reaching for the prozac though.

[Relativistic]

If it's going to be mild I'd rather have it constantly overcast, windy and dark than anything else.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

It's likely, given recent weather, we will see periods of very mild weather this winter (such as Feb 2011 and very cold. They will average themselves out to give the winter an average to slightly below average CET in my opinion. I am sure though we are likely to continue to see some extremes like Dec 2010 and March 2013 which is why we study the longer range output in detail waiting to see hints of the next big switch in pattern coming along. Right now we are stuck in a very mild pattern.

Edited October 2, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[mistyqueen]

Well, I'd save a fortune on heating oil and coal that's for sure! I would just deal with it. Remove thermal underwear, wear just one pair of socks and slap on some sun cream whilst supping a G&T. What else is a girl to do?

[godber]

Pretty much hoping this winter is the polar opposite of the threads title. If we're unlucky enough to get a very mild winter, then so be it!

[smithyweather]

I hope I don't regret saying this. But I hope that the cold comes and kicks a few members in the ass after rubbing in all this warmth over this past few weeks. Those irritating smiley faces...

[Jax]

Pretty much hoping this winter is the polar opposite of the threads title. If we're unlucky enough to get a very mild winter, then so be it!

TBH, hope is one one thing along with preference, but it will not change what we get anyway.

I hope I don't regret saying this. But I hope that the cold comes and kicks a few members in the ass after rubbing in all this warmth over this past few weeks. Those irritating smiley faces...

dammit, where is the [don't like] button !

Edited October 2, 2013 by Jax

[March Blizzard]

All weather types have their own charm, and although I am a winter "coldie" at heart I have to admit a part of me enjoys those mild, sunny winter days. Christmas Day 2011 was strangely pleasant, and somewhat surreal.

It's just persistent cloud/drizzle I could do without.

[Captain Shortwave]

I hope I don't regret saying this. But I hope that the cold comes and kicks a few members in the ass after rubbing in all this warmth over this past few weeks. Those irritating smiley faces...

I like cold weather too, many people in life don't just like either warm or cold weather, they like both, anything other than the seasonal norm is good to me, whether it's heatwaves in the summer or a deep freeze in the winter. 

[Summer of 95]

If "mild" means weather like mid-Feb 1998 then I can understand people wishing for it, though personally I prefer winter cold and snowy. But as for nonstop southwesterly grot with cloud and drizzle, or Bartlett bore-fests lasting months; who on earth can want that? Much worse for inducing SAD than cold frosty bright weather with a snow blanket.

 

The other horror setup, which AFAIK has no defenders whatsoever, is the easterly that produces nothing but cloudy rubbish with temps just above freezing. That seems to be loathed by mildies and coldies alike, and deservedly so- it's no good for anything.

[SomeLikeItHot]

Afraid not

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/ssn_HadCET_mean.txt

 

Bascically zero correlation between summer and winter temps. But there is some between spring and following winter and also Autumn. Still quite low correlation though and not really usefully predictive.

[March Blizzard]

Just in case anybody is looking for a scapegoat for this dire winter...

[hillbilly]

I hope I don't regret saying this. But I hope that the cold comes and kicks a few members in the ass after rubbing in all this warmth over this past few weeks. Those irritating smiley faces...

I would hardly call it warmth,warmth is summer and round here we often get odd days of 12 deg in the height of summer,the same temp as in the depths of winter if it is mild!