east pacific Tropical Storm Lorena

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression 12E has formed from a disturbance moving northwestwards close to coast of Mexico. 12E is located about 150 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and has winds of 30kts. The depression is quite broad and doesn't have a great deal of concentrated convection near the LLCC. Shear is low and waters are warm, but the structure of the depression that I've just described argues against quick intensification. The depression only has a couple days in this envrionment, so it looks like we are going to have only a moderate TS at best from this system, barring any surprises. Henriette remains the strongest hurricane so far this season (90kt cat 2), and we still have no major hurricane. The last time we went through a season in the East Pacific with no major hurricane is 2003, so it's quite uncommon for there to be no Major Hurricane. There is still time of course, but 12E doesn't look like it will be a candidate.

 

In a couple days time, 12E will begin to weaken from it's peak (NHC currently forecast this to be a modest 40kts) as it moves northwestwards into increasing shear and cooler waters west of Baja California. NHC forecast degneration into a remnant low in 4 days time, and complete dissipation of the low by day 5.

 

 

[Somerset Squall]

12E became Tropical Storm Lorena yesterday evening, with winds of 35kts. Since then, Lorena has not strengthened further. Although there is some deep convection associated with Lorena, it is not very concentrated or organised, and the LLC is not very well defined. Lorena is closing in on the southern tip of Baja California, so time is running out for any intensification. Heavy rains are likely here over the coming few days, along with the neighbouring mainland.

[Coast]

Tropical Storm Lorena formed off the western coast of Mexico Thursday afternoon, adding another storm to an already active season in the eastern Pacific. Tropical storm watches and warnings have been posted for the southern Baja peninsula, including Agua Blanca and La Paz, due to the potential of tropical storm-force winds.

 

Lorena became a little less organized Friday evening, causing the storm to weaken a little bit as it tracked just west of the coast of Baja California. Continued weakening is expected over the next few days as Lorena moves over cooler waters and into a more stable airmass. However, the main impact from Lorena continues to be the threat of locally heavy rainfall over parts of the southern Baja peninsula, where 3 to 6 inches of rain is possible (locally higher amounts possible). This rainfall could trigger life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

 

The port of La Paz was closed to small craft and waves broke hard at Medano Beach, according to the Associated Press. Businesses closed and left sandbags to prevent any flooding that might occur. For the latest on Tropical Storm Lorena, including where watches and warnings are posted, check the information below

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/tropical-depression-twelve-e-tropical-storm-lorena-20130905

 

Edited September 7, 2013 by Coast

[Somerset Squall]

Lorena peaked at 40kts but is now on the way to becoming a remnant low. Lorena has weakened to a tropical depression and has no convection over the LLCC. Passage over cooler water just west of Baja California is expected to prevent convection from returning.