Cold chance reduced
The fourth update suggests a slightly reduced chance of a White Christmas. It looks as though high pressure will bring dry weather for a time during the latter part of September but more cyclonic conditions could develop in early October. There are some suggestions that Octobers which are dominated by cyclonic conditions are followed by milder winters. In addition the output from the long range forecast models looks quite mixed. Despite this the percentage forecast chances of a White Christmas are still above the average and there continues to be a signal in some of the output for high level blocking to develop later in the year.
Do remember that it's way too early to have any confidence in this. The forecast is for fun only so enjoy counting down the days and check regularly for updates through the coming weeks to see how things are panning out through the autumn. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below!
Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 25%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%
Update 4, 21/09/2013
- It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
- It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales.
- Cold conditions in the Midlands are expected. Marginal for rain or snow.
- It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north.
- Snow is expected in Scotland
- It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.