east pacific Tropical Storm Ivo

[Somerset Squall]

The ninth tropical depression of the East Pacific season has formed a few hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Winds are currently at 30kts. The depression is quite broad and the LLCC is exposed to the northeast of the main bulk of the convection due to moderate shear. 09E is forecast to move north-northwestwards along the southwest side of a ridge over mainland Mexico. This track will take 09E west of Baja California over the coming days, and will also take the depression over much colder water in about 36-48hrs. Therefore, 09E doesn't have long to strengthen, and based on the current organisation of the system, any strengthening will be slow. Therefore, 09E probably won't become any stronger than a minimal tropical storm.

 

[Coast]

 

Tropical Depression 09E: Probability of tropical storm winds to 117 hours lead

 

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression 09E has become Tropical Storm Ivo, with winds now at 35kts. Ivo is a very large and broad system, with an elongated LLC and a sprawling mass of convection. This storm is certainly going to be a flooding concern for northwest Mexico and southwest USA. The large and elongated nature of Ivo argues against significant intensification before the storm reaches cooler waters in 24-36hrs on the north-northwesterly track. Dissipation should occur west of Baja California in a few days time, but as the Ivo is so large some very heavy rains are likely here despite the LLCC remaining well offshore.

[Somerset Squall]

Ivo has strengthened to 40kts. The LLCC has reformed to the northeast under deeper convection. The organisation of the storm has improved too, with more centralised convection and tighter banding. However, Ivo still is not forecast to strengthen beyond mid-strength TS prior to moving over cooler water.

 

The jog east due to the centre reformation means that tropical storm warnings have been issued for Baja California.

Edited August 23, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[Coast]

 

Tropical Storm Ivo ('EE-voh) is heading north after re-forming in the eastern Pacific, prompting warnings and watches for portions of Mexico's Baja California peninsula. The National Hurricane Center in Miami said late Friday that Ivo was located about 205 miles (330 kilometers) southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. It had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 kph) and was moving north about 12 mph (19 kph).

 

The Mexican government has issued a tropical storm warning for the Pacific coast of the peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Lucas, and for the Gulf of California coast of the peninsula from Loreto southward to Cabo San Lucas. There's a tropical storm watch in effect for the Pacific coast of Baja California north of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia.The Hurricane Center said Ivo could strengthen Friday night and Saturday, then weaken again Saturday night and Sunday.

 

 

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/tropical-storm-ivo-forms-eastern-pacific-20052712

[Somerset Squall]

Ivo has weakened and winds are now at 35kts. Convection has become shallower, a sure sign waters are too cool to support the storm. Ivo is expected to continue to weaken as it heads north-northwestwards into higher shear and even cooler water. Tropical Storm warnings have been discontinued for Baja California.

[Coast]

 

Tropical Storm Ivo heads north in eastern Pacific

 

Winds and rain from Tropical Storm Ivo (‘EE-voh) are spreading across portions of Mexico’s Baja California peninsula.

 

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said early Saturday that Ivo was located about 185 miles (300 kilometers) west of Cabo San Lucas. It had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 kph) and was moving north-northwest at 12 mph (19 kph). A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Pacific coast of the peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Lucas, and for the Gulf of California coast of the peninsula from Loreto to Cabo San Lucas. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Pacific coast of Baja California north of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia. The Hurricane Center called Ivo a large storm and said it would likely bring more rain as well as surf swells.

 

 

 

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2013/aug/24/tropical-storm-ivo-heads-north-in-eastern-pacific/

[Somerset Squall]

Ivo has degenerated into a remnant low over the cold waters west of Baja California. The moisture streaming ahead of the low is increasing rainfall over Baja and the southwest USA, but the tropical cyclone itself is done.