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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Tropical Depression 11W has formed a few hundred miles north-northeast of Pilau, and well east of the Philippines. Sustained winds are 30kts. Convection is currently lacking over the system's centre, but there are curved banding features taking shape which should allow the convection to wrap towards and over the LLCC. Conditions are very favourable for development, with low shear, warm sea temps and good outflow. JTWC forecast rapid intensification as a result, and expect 11W to become an intense typhoon. The track forecast is concerning too. A ridge to the north is expected to push 11W west-northwestwards towards Luzon over the coming days, and 11W is expected to landfall as a significant typhoon in about 84hrs time. Then, 11W is expected to turn towards the northwest as the cyclone reaches the western extent of the ridge, and strengthen yet further before a second landfall near Hong Kong, China. The track, as always, is subject to change, but it looks like we may have a proper typhoon to track unlike the many weak storms the West Pacific has produced so far, barring Soulik. The curved bands evident do suggest that this one could ramp up quickly, which is obviously not good for those in it's path.

 

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Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Tropical Depression ELEVEN: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 120 hours lead

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

11W has become Tropical Storm Utor, with winds now at 45kts. Convection is now increasing readily over the LLCC, and banding features remain impressive. Shear is low and waters are warm, so further strengthening is expected. The track forecast has shifted significantly south now, meaning Utor is now expected to make landfall in Central Luzon rather than scrape the north coast, and is now expected to remain south of Hong Kong and instead cross the South China Sea (SCS) to affect Hainan Island. This is due to the ridge to the north becoming stronger than expected, and it is forecast to remain strong, blocking northard movement of Utor. Just how strong Utor will get prior to the first landfall is open to question, but Luzon should take a lot of power out of Utor, though conditions in the SCS favour some reintensification prior to the second landfall.

 

The updated image in my first post shows the more southern track forecast by JTWC.

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Utor has continued to strengthen and is close to becoming a typhoon, if it isn't just about there already. Winds are up to 55kts. The central dense overcast remains solid, with strong banding and a small eye forming. Rapid strengthening is expected prior to landfall on Luzon.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Utor is now a typhoon with winds of 70kts. The eye has continued to develop over the past 6 hours, and has started to clear out. The rapid intensification is forecast to continue, and JTWC forecast Utor to become a cat 3 before landfall in Luzon.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Utor continues it's rapid intensification phase. Winds are up to 90kts, cat 2 on the SS scale. The eye has become cloud obscured recently but is small and well defined.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

It's now been classified as a severe typhoon:

 

 

Philippines braces for Typhoon Utor
 
Typhoon Bopha slams into the Philippines
.
The Philippines is braced for the arrival of Typhoon Utor with authorities warning of heavy rains and potential floods in what is expected to be the strongest storm to hit the country so far this year. The typhoon, packing gusts of up to 185 kilometres per hour, was 160 kilometres north-east of the nation's easternmost island Catanduanes at mid-morning (local time), the state weather bureau said. "This is forecast to be the strongest storm to make landfall so far this year," bureau head Vicente Malano told reporters.
 
The typhoon is expected to make landfall in the north-eastern agricultural province of Aurora early on Monday, he said, adding that heavy rains are likely to cover a larger area including the capital Manila. Utor, moving west-northwest at 19 kilometres per hour, was forecast to dump up to 25 millimetres of rain an hour within a 600-kilometre diameter of the typhoon, the bureau said. "Residents in low lying and mountainous areas... are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides," it said in an advisory. The bureau also warned seafarers to remain at port due to strong waves, as the police, military and emergency relief authorities were placed on high alert.
 
The Philippines is hit by about 20 storms and typhoons each year, some of them devastating. Nearly 2,000 were killed or went missing in flash floods and landslides when Typhoon Bopha cut across the southern island of Mindanao in December last year. About 850,000 people were also displaced, and many of them remain in temporary shelters months after the typhoon.
 
The Hong Kong Observatory on Sunday classified Utor as a "severe typhoon" on its website

 

 

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-11/phils-typhoon/4878942

 

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Utor has become a cat 4 typhoon on the SS scale with winds now at 115kts. Utor has about another 9hrs to intensify before slamming into eastern Luzon. Destructive winds and dangerous flooding rains will be a big issue, needless to say. Utor is forecast to weaken over land to low end cat 2 but should restrengthen before landfall west of Hong Kong.

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Hong Kong
  • Location: Hong Kong

Back to where I start getting excited again.

unfortunately I have decided to be on holiday this week, so will not be in Hong Kong.

 

Earlier when the models were sending it straight for HK I was wishing it away, and it should stay south but still bring gale force winds to hong kong next week.

 

I hope the Phillipines are prepared for this one...it has just been upgraded to super Typhoon by JTWC and will make landfall in the next few hours. My thoughts are with everybody there right now. 

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Indeed Cornishbrooksy, Utor has become the first Super Typhoon of the season, with sustained winds of 130kts, high end cat 4 on the SS scale. Landfall is hours away and the torrential rains are already falling and the worst of the winds will be felt soon across the Philippines. The storm was a beauty, with a circular central dense overcast with a very well defined eye, but Utor appears to be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Sadly, this means little for Luzon. Just wish it was going out to sea!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Utor has weakened to 95kts, cat 2 on the SS scale. Satellite imagery shows Utor emerging into the South China Sea (SCS) as a weakened but still intact typhoon. Land interaction may produce a little more weakening over the next 6 hours, but conditions in the northern SCS are favourable for reintensification, and JTWC forecast Utor's second peak to be around 100kts before the typhoon makes a second landfall well west of Hong Kong, nearer Hainan Island. This region has seen a lot of landfalls so far this year, albeit from weak but very wet storms (Mangkut and Jebi being the most recent), so flooding will be even more of a concern, along with the wind damage a cat 3 brings.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

 

Fishermen missing as Typhoon Utor hits Philippines
 
A powerful typhoon has hit the northern Philippines, leaving at least 23 fishermen missing.
 
The storm made landfall in the north of the main island of Luzon early on Monday, bringing winds of up to 200km/h (124 mph) and torrential rain.
 
Power lines were brought down in some places and ferries were suspended, stranding thousands of passengers. Typhoon Utor is expected to remain in the northern Philippines for most of Monday before sweeping out to sea. It is then expected to move across the South China Sea towards southern China. Heavy rain hit the capital, Manila, where some schools were closed, but there were no reports of major flooding. A number of domestic flights were also cancelled.
 
The missing fishermen all come from Catanduanes, an island province off Luzon's east coast.

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-23662733

 


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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

 

The year's most powerful typhoon slammed into the Philippines on Monday, triggering landslides and floods, cutting power and communications and leaving 9 fishermen missing, weather and disaster officials said. Typhoon Utor, packing winds of 140 km per hour (87 mph) near its centre and gusts of up to 170 km per hour, weakened slightly after hitting the country's north and is moving slowly west-northwest at 19 km per hour, the officials said. The coastal town of Casiguran in Aurora province, 343 km northeast of the capital Manila, suffered the worst damage, after Utor set off landslides that blocked its only access road.

 

"Power was cut in the wee hours of the morning up to now, as well as communication lines in three towns in Aurora, Casiguran included," provincial governor Gerardo Noveras told ANC television, adding that the full extent of damage was still unknown. Devastation ranged from uprooted trees, fallen lampposts and tangled power lines to several flattened houses, a television broadcast showed.
 
The typhoon, the 12th tropical cyclone this year, is expected to sweep through the northern Philippine provinces of Benguet and Ilocos Sur before exiting towards the South China Sea by Tuesday, disaster and weather officials said. The national disaster agency said there were no reports of casualties so far but nine fishermen were missing from the southeastern coastal provinces of Camarines Norte and Catanduanes. About 20 typhoons hit the Philippines every year, often causing death and destruction. A state of national calamity was declared last December after typhoon Bopha killed more than 700 people in the resource-rich south, but most storms make landfall further north.

 

 

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/08/12/uk-philippines-typhoon-idUKBRE97B03T20130812

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Look at this image of the West Pacific, Utor fills the entire South China Sea!

 

Posted Image

 

Utor weakened to 85kts, but has since restrengthened to 90kts. The large typhoon has very strong convective bands and a tightening LLCC now the system is away from land. South China, Hainan Island, and even Vietnam are in line for some flooding rains, as the rains ease across the Philippines.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Dangerous Utor has developed an eye again as it crosses the northern South China Sea. Winds are up to 100kts, making the typhoon a cat 3. Further intensification, perhaps rapid, is expected before landfall on the south coast of China near Hainan Island. With the eye present again now, it seems like Utor will re-attain cat 4 status prior to landfall. JTWC forecast a second peak of 115kts for Utor, but do state that this estimate may be a little low and outflow is expected to improve greatly prior to landfall, waters remain warm and shear low.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

 

Typhoon Utor Targets China

 

Typhoon Utor, the third western Pacific typhoon of 2013 sliced through the northern Philippines this weekend.  According to the Associated Press, at least one man was killed in a landslide. Utor – also named Labuyo by the Philippine weather agency, which uses its own naming list – peaked as a Category 4 super typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Sunday (U.S. time), with winds reaching 150 miles per hour as of 11 a.m. Eastern U.S. time (11 p.m. Philippines time).
 
The U.S. Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) said Utor made landfall just before 5 p.m. EDT Sunday, and winds decreased just slightly to a still-dangerous 140 miles per hour. A "super typhoon" is declared when a tropical cyclone in the western North Pacific Ocean attains winds of at least 150 miles per hour. Utor dumped torrential rain across northern parts of the Philippine island of Luzon, including 204.8 mm (8.06 inches) of rain in Baguio City in the 33-hour period ending at 5 a.m. EDT Monday (U.S. time).
 
After hitting the Philippines, Utor is now in the South China Sea headed toward a landfall in southeast China early Wednesday morning (U.S. time), or Wednesday afternoon, local time. At this time, it appears the central core (eyewall) or Utor will likely remain south and west of Hong Kong. However, bands of heavy rain and wind gusts of tropical storm-force or stronger, are possible, there, especially Wednesday. 
 
Posted Image
 
Much of east-central and southeast China has been blistering under a historic heat wave for the past six weeks, so a tropical cyclone with rainfall might be welcome in that region if the winds weaken significantly. There is a strong possibility, however, that Utor will remain a typhoon all the way to the Asian mainland.
 
While the center of Utor is now west of the Philippines, bands of locally heavy rain may persist at least through Tuesday over the northern Philippine island of Luzon, leading to additional local flash flooding and mudslides.
 
Posted Image

 

 

 

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/wp201311_sat.html

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

After re-attaining cat 3 status, Utor has weakened to cat 2 status, with winds of 85kts. The eye is very close to the coastline on satellite imagery, so landfall is imminant on the Chinese coast between Hainan Island and Hong Kong. Despite the slight weakening, winds are still of great concern along with the dangerous flooding rains leading to possible mudslides.post-1820-0-65714800-1376460678_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Typhoon UTOR: Probability of tropical storm winds to 48 hours lead

 

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Typhoon Utor lashes Hong Kong
 
Typhoon makes landfall in city with wind and rain, forcing stock market shutdown and cancellation of flights.
 
Typhoon Utor has lashed Hong Kong with wind and rain, closing down the bustling Asian financial centre before sweeping toward mainland China. The Hong Kong weather observatory raised its number eight tropical cyclone signal early on Wednesday morning, its third highest alert level. Schools, courts and offices were shut and the stock market halted trading as Typhoon Utor approached.
 
Dozens of flights were canceled and bus and commuter ferry services were curtailed because of the typhoon, which was packing gale-force winds with gusts of up to 138 km per hour. One person in Hong Kong was reported to be injured. Strong winds blew down 15 trees and two satellite dishes off rooftops, the South China Morning Post newspaper reported, but otherwise the city emerged largely unscathed. About 110 flights at city's airport were canceled while another 241 flights were delayed.
 
The storm, which also brought rough seas and pouring rain, was centered about 250km west-southwest of Hong Kong at about 1 pm local time. Forecasters said Utor's intensity had weakened and it was expected to move northwest at about 16 km per hour toward China's Guangdong province. Along the coast of Guangdong, authorities were calling fishing boats to port and securing buildings and equipment at aquaculture farms. The storm was expected to make landfall near the city of Maoming in the afternoon before traveling northwest into Guangxi province.
 
As of late Tuesday, more than 3,000 passengers were stranded at Sanya and Haikou airports on Hainan, according to China's official Xinhua news agency. State broadcaster CCTV reported that 94 flights at Meilan Airport in Hainan had been cancelled. Some train and shipping services were also suspended, with waves of over 10 metres expected in some coastal zones. Utor was the worst typhoon to hit the Philippines this year, killing six people and displacing more than 30,000 families as it caused landslides and floods and disrupted power and communications links.

 

 

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2013/08/201381413915928828.html

 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

 

A typhoon struck the south coast of China on Wednesday, forcing airlines to cancel flights and halting stock exchange trading in the financial centre of Hong Kong after leaving a trail of destruction in the Philippines. The Hong Kong weather observatory raised its No. 8 tropical cyclone signal early in the day, its third highest alert, but had lowered it by the afternoon as Typhoon Utor moved inland west of the territory.
 
Heavy rains and gale force winds lashed Hong Kong and uprooted trees, with heavy disruptions to shipping services and flights. Markets, schools and businesses closed for the day. China's State Oceanic Administration issued a first-level emergency response late on Tuesday and fishing boats and other vessels were called back to port in western Guangdong.
 
Nearly 200 workers were rescued from an artificial island on the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge as conditions deteriorated, local police said. On the tropical resort island of Hainan, west of the storm's path, 27,000 boats returned to port while more than 98,000 people were evacuated from low-lying areas, the official Xinhua news agency reported.
 
As of late Tuesday, over 3,000 passengers were stranded at Sanya and Haikou airports on Hainan. Some train and shipping services were also suspended, with waves of over 10 metres (32 feet) expected in some coastal zones. Utor was the worst typhoon to hit the Philippines this year, killing six people and displacing over 30,000 families as it caused landslides and floods and disrupted power and communications links.
 

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/08/14/uk-hongkong-typhoon-idUKBRE97D0BM20130814


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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Batten down the hatches:

 

 

More than 158,000 people in southern China have been relocated as authorities in the provinces of Guangdong and Hainan prepare for the arrival of Typhoon Utor. The island province of Hainan has relocated 98,000 people, and 60,215 people have been relocated in Maoming City, Guangdong Province, which is likely to be hit hard by the typhoon, local authorities said Wednesday.
 
People forced to relocate mainly include the elderly and those residing in fishing vessels, makeshift shelters and other unstable structures. Authorities in Maoming, where a strong typhoon in 2010 left more than 100 dead and missing, have ordered all fishing vessels to return to port. Meanwhile, all 26,926 shipping boats in Hainan have returned to port to take shelter from the storm. Locals are advised to stay indoors, and authorities are also closely monitoring reservoirs for potential hazards.
 
Utor, the 11th typhoon and also the strongest to hit China this year, is expected to make landfall on the western coast of Guangdong sometime between Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening, then it will move onto Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region on Wednesday night and linger there for about four days.
 

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013-08/14/c_132630618.htm

 

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Utor is moving inland and weakening fast. However, Utor's southern band remains over Hainan Island and has exploded into life, there's some seriously high rainfall totals coming out of that. Even though the tropical storm will weaken fast over land, rainfall will remain a serious threat for a few days yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

 

Typhoon Utor is currently fighting some dry air as it continues to push to the northwest. There is an apparent eye with the typhoon, but the dry air is starting to make the eye wall collapse on the northern side of the system. The main threat with this typhoon will continue to be the heavy rains that could trigger flash flooding and mudslides.

Posted Image

Super Typhoon Utor approaching the Philippines on Sunday, August 11, 2013. Image Credit: NASA

On August 11, Utor was a super typhoon producing sustained maximum wind speeds of 150 mph. The storm was at its peak intensity, and is currently ranked as the strongest typhoon to have formed across the globe so far for 2013. Utor struck the northern Philippine island of Luzon early Monday morning, producing heavy rain, significant storm surge and sustained winds around 140 mph. It is estimated by the Republic of the Philippines that Utor made landfall near Casiguran. So far, the agency is reporting at least two deaths. There have been as many as 55 people that have been reported missing after Utor struck the region. Over one hundred homes were totally damaged and nearly 1,000 more sustained some type of damage.

Posted Image

Infrared rainbow imagery of Typhoon Utor striking China. Image Credit: NOAA

Bottom line: Typhoon Utor is pushing into southeast China today (August 13, 2013), with plenty of rain, gusty winds and expected flash flooding. This storm has already killed at least two people and damaged over 1,000 homes in the Philippines. Rainfall totals over six inches will be possible in a few spots as the storm is rather large and contains plenty of moisture. Typhoon Utor is considered to be the strongest tropical cyclone to have formed across the globe for 2013.

 

http://earthsky.org/earth/typhoon-utor-striking-china

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