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Tropical Storm Flossie


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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Tropical Depression 06E has formed from invest 98E, located at about 15N, 122W, 950 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The depression has sustained winds of 30kts. 06E has formed a decent amount of centralised convection, and may not be far off becoming a tropical storm. However, as the storm has formed so far west well away from the toasty eastern half of the basin, it doesn't have long over waters warm enough to support intensification; about 48 hours in fact. In this time, as shear is low, 06E should at least become a moderate to strong tropical storm, if there is no surprise rapid intensification. As 06E crosses into cooler waters in a couple days time, weakening will begin. Strong ridging to the north is expected to guide 06E on a typical west-northwest to westward heading through it's lifetime.

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

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Doesn't look like it will make it to Hawaii:

 

Tropical Depression 06E: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 117 hours lead

 

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Doesn't look like it will make it to Hawaii

Indeed, the cool sea temps and dry air do a good job at protecting Hawaii, particularly this early on in the season.06E has become Tropical Storm Flossie, as winds have reached 35kts. Some further strengthening is expected over the next 36 hours.
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

 

Tropical Storm Flossie will remain on a path to Hawaii through next week. Flossie is more than a thousand miles away from land, but that distance will shrink through next week as the tropical storm remains on a west-northwest track toward Hawaii. Over the warm waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean, Flossie took shape early Thursday morning. The arrival of Flossie in Hawaii is anticipated around Monday night or Tuesday.
 
The good news is that Flossie should not be a tropical storm at that time. After becoming a stronger tropical storm through Friday, Flossie is expected weaken to a tropical rainstorm by Tuesday. Another bit of good news is that many locations are running below average in terms of rainfall over the last year so rainfall from this system will be beneficial, as long as it is not too heavy.
 
That does not mean that Flossie will pass unnoticed across Hawaii. Enhanced shower activity will spread from east to west across the islands Monday night through Wednesday, threatening to put a damper on outdoor activities. AccuWeather.com meteorologists will be monitoring the possibility for localized downpours, while residents and visitors may even see rare flashes of lightning. Flossie should also kick up the surf along the shores of Hawaii, creating hazards for beachgoers.

 

 

 

 
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Flossie has strengthened modestly over the last 24 hours and sustained winds are now at 45kts. The storm has some deep convection over the LLCC, and good banding features, with a primary band stretching from the eastern quadrant southwards. Flossie could strengthen a little more over the next 6-12hrs before sea temps shelve off quickly along track and the storm moves into a much drier airmass. The shear is set to remain low however, so weakening will be slow. Current track forecasts actually have Flossie making landfall directly on Hawaii, as a tropical depression.

post-1820-0-06515300-1374859573_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Flossie's intensity is now up to 50kts. The storm has a symmetrical central dense overcast, and if it had a little longer over warm water then it definitely would have become a hurricane. As it stands, the chances of this are slim as Flossie is already crossing into cooler water.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Flossie went against expectations and strengthened to 60kts earlier today, and an eye began to form in the central dense overcast. However, Flossie seems to have weakened since, as the eye of sorts that showed earlier has now gone and the convection associated with Flossie has began to wane. Winds are down to 55kts. NHC have handed over resonsibilty to the CPHC as Flossie is now moving into the Central Pacific basin. As Flossie has remained stronger for longer than expected, it could still be a tropical storm as it impacts Hawaii, so watches and warnings could soon be issued here.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Flossie weakened to 45kts as it crossed into the Central Pacific, but has now re-strengthened to 50kts. Sea temps are marginally warm under Flossie, but do increase on the westward track. However, shear is expected to increase and dry air is expected to continue to affect Flossie. Nevertheless, Flossie is closing in on Hawaii, and a tropical storm watch has been issued here. Waters west of Hawaii become very warm, and it's a long shot given the shear and dry air ahead, but if the shear were to ease as all when Flossie moves over this water, Flossie could restrengthen. As it stands, CPHC still forecast dissipation west of Hawaii.

 

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Coincidental I know, but Flossie from 2006 followed a very similar track and also impacted Hawaii, though that Flossie became a cat 4 hurricane. Interesting also that Barbara earlier this year followed an extremely similar track to Barbara from 2007, though this time Barbara was a hurricane and in 2007 it was only a tropical storm.

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Flossie crossed Hawaii and has now degenerated into a convectionless remnant low. Dry air, shear and land interaction aided in Flossie's demise. Although waters warm beneath the low as it moves to the west, regneration is not expected due to continued dry air and shear.

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