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2013 Chase - Tour 2 Countdown


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Tentatively, the forecasts for the end of next week are looking promising for those starting out on tour two. It must be difficult suppressing the excitement at this point because after this weeks lull potential for hitting the road running is edging nearer.

 

Day 6 has a weak trough to the west of the plains introducing lots of moisture

 

post-4523-0-56230300-1367655445_thumb.pn

 

post-4523-0-50806100-1367655541_thumb.pn with a very distinctive dry line

 

Looking at the surface winds I can imagine the warm southerly flow and strong LLJ over eastern Texas.

 

With the CAPE building

 

post-4523-0-79031500-1367655687_thumb.pn

 

and temps building

 

post-4523-0-88936600-1367655713_thumb.pn

 

things could go bang on Day 1

 

post-4523-0-02121600-1367655888_thumb.pn

 

I think that I will try and be around Vernon, TX  on Thurs morning.

 

Question is what time on Wednesday does the last guest arrive as it looks like they may miss out on the Best Western at Irving as you all head West.

 

 

post-4523-0-60001800-1367655526_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands

Reading this thread is seriously distracting me from Packing!!!

Anyone else on the BA0193 flight from Heathrow on Tuesday morn?

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

If I was going Jo, I would be looking something like this now:

 

post-4523-0-10207300-1367671193_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Current dew point in Wichita Falls, TX is a shocking -5ºC! How that will change by Wed/Thurs.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Urmmm

 

I think it is something called the "LLJ" Low Level Jet which can transport gulf moisture at warp speeds, dont worry it will get there easy enough!

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Urmmm

 

I think it is something called the "LLJ" Low Level Jet which can transport gulf moisture at warp speeds, dont worry it will get there easy enough!

 

I found it difficult to grasp the concept of that LLJ until I saw it. I remember my first day in Dallas watching the low level clouds racing north, knowing that that was the moisture feed.

 

Models still look good for Wed onwards towards next weekend whereas potential then becomes more messy and southerly based as a Northern Rockies ridge takes hold. I reckon that there is good potential for supercell activity on the western OK and TX panhandle border region come Wed evening transferring further SW into TX by Thurs evening. Not a bad spot and time to be arriving.

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Posted
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands

Kathryn- I'm on the 11.55 flight so you'll be in the sky before me :( I get to Dfw about 4....

I've assembled most of my stuff, but then looked at the price of toiletries in Walmart online and now having a serious rethink! And I can't find my camera remote. Waah!

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham
  • Location: Horsham

Jo - think we are being picked up together, I arrive just after 4, via Atlanta. I'm heading to Brighton tomorrow and will hopefully pick up a remote release myself, and anything else I annoyingly already own just can't find!

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Yh will pick you girls up together, just get to the Car Rentals on the Blue Link Bus, Kathryn strangely enough you might get through quicker than Jo as you will probably have to clear customs in Atlanta whereas Jo will probably be queuing up a la Alton Towers stylee with the other 1,000 Non US Residents in the arrivals hall.

 

Cant remember if you clear customs on your first leg of the journey or at the end though.

 

Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands

Coolio! Alton towers but with miserable security guards and unnecessary groping? Oh goody!!

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

9. If your on Tom Lynch's tour  , be prepared to be interviewed by him at some stage , or perhaps by a turkey laugh.png

Chicken get it right blum.gif

Edited by cookie
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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

Chicken get it right blum.gif

 

I heard rumour George is to fitted with a parachute in preparation to be taken up in James M's quadcopter

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

Yh will pick you girls up together, just get to the Car Rentals on the Blue Link Bus, Kathryn strangely enough you might get through quicker than Jo as you will probably have to clear customs in Atlanta whereas Jo will probably be queuing up a la Alton Towers stylee with the other 1,000 Non US Residents in the arrivals hall.

 

Cant remember if you clear customs on your first leg of the journey or at the end though.

 

Paul

You would normally clear customs at your point of entry into the USA.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Well, good luck to those heading to the airport.

 

They may be interested to know that Wed is coming out as a slight risk day with the western OK and TX border very achievable for a bonus day chase.

 

post-4523-0-51620300-1367826194_thumb.gi

 

Tornado risk looks low but could get a good structured LP supercell.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

IMO tor potential is in the 5% + zone in the slight risk area but the parameter not covered by the SPC is the cap which may preclude all but a localized initiation until late in the afternoon.
The synoptics have been on the table for so long now it's encouraging to see something more defined in the synopsis, with the chances of eroding EML and CAPE overlay highest in the Altus, OK area for Thurs 00Z. Only moderate dps may see storm bases failing to get surface based but the chances of decent structure and/or the odd tornado are far from negligible IMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

Sipping a cold Sam Adams Boston beer in Philly waiting for my connection, man I've missed this beer!

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Still looks good for WED bonus day for a dryline supercell.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

Indeed. In a nutshell, Weds is all about punching the cap and Thurs is about locating the boundaries - with any outflow boundary helping to enhance the potential. Whatever happens, the targets for the next few days are all in the N TX/OK panhandle region so not far to go for now.
I'm sure once the advance team settle in we'll see the first daily discussion thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Would dearly love to get into the Progged Supercells in the Texas Panhandle today but alas picking guests up at 6pm will not allow us, but tomorrow we are sending 1 car into the Dryline play and keeping one back for the wednesday arrivals, we will not have streaming tomorrow (That can wait until Thursday) but everything almost set-up already in the 2 cars. A few pictures below

 

post-24-0-96369800-1367935960_thumb.jpg - Wires Everywhere

 

post-24-0-01382200-1367935995_thumb.jpg - 2 of the 3 Chase Vehicles!

 

Paul S

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

 

attachicon.gif007.JPG - 2 of the 3 Chase Vehicles!

 

Paul S

 

'One black one, one white one, and one with . . . . ' acute.gif 

Good to see you've arrived and getting ready for action.

 

For today the 13Z RAP doesn't break too much out before 00Z. Best chance of a decent cell would be around Plainview, TX according to the composite.

Weds evening and things look quite a bit better with more robust moisture return and helicity more supportive of supercells in the TX panhandle and my original target of Altus, OK (going on dryline).

Edited by nsrobins
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