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Winter Model Discussion 18Z 3/2/13 onwards.

chionomaniac

By chionomaniac
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Timmytour Accomplished

Timmytour

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
Posted (edited)

Blimey....two models sticking to their guns...and they are pointing in different directions!

Or so it seems at T90....is the pub run moving everything further east and even more keen to move the Atlantic in?

Edited by Timmytour
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Gary_R_Walker Newbie

Gary_R_Walker

Posted
  • Location: North Lowestoft
  • Location: North Lowestoft
Posted

Woud love to see the GFS get on board. If it doesn't and the ECm verifies, it will nevertheless always play a big part in the way i feel the weathers going to develop.

If it doesn't, and the ECM doesn't verify, I will still have a high regard for Steve and his analysis and predictive skills.

For me this is like seeing a game go to penalties with the ECm having scored the first one and GFS having missed it. We still can't really say who's going to win, and even when we know which has won, we'd be a little restrained afterwards in saying they did so because they were the better team

That makes about as much sense as the models do. So in some strange way you have summed up the futile nature of weather model watching. Without doubt the least reliable scientific computer models in any form of modern science. And long may that continue. It's the weather.

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-uksnow- Explorer

-uksnow-

Posted
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, Heat, Thunderstorms
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
Posted

we gunna get wrong very shortly.

What on earth does this even mean!?

GFS seems to have taken a step towards the ECM with the further development of the low south of Greenland, with more support for the 12z ECM tonight i'm now starting to be a bit more brought in to the idea of the ECM...

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Author
Posted

18Z GFS takes the tiniest step towards the ECM when one looks at the size of the PV and trigger low at T+102. But it is small.

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Yarmy Maestro

Yarmy

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
Posted

That makes about as much sense as the models do. So in some strange way you have summed up the futile nature of weather model watching. Without doubt the least reliable scientific computer models in any form of modern science. And long may that continue. It's the weather.

Couldn't disagree more. Considering the complexity of the problem, they are borderline miraculous. Compare for Earthquake prediction models: zero progress in decades of trying.

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

Cheshire gap showers showing up well on NAE. Parts of NW England could wake yo prolonged snow showers Tuesday morning but of course those of us in NW England have been looking forward to this good old Northwesterly for a while. Should deliver though not that cold at the surface.

13020512_0318.gif13020512_0318.gif

Edited by Mucka
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MR EXTREMES Experienced

MR EXTREMES

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Posted

small difference again on the gfs heights building a little sooner on the gfs and a little futher north and west.

although low coming out of the eastern seaboard is a little more ampilfied but running through all the frames until its most recent it does also look like it could well come inline with the ecm or middle ground as suggested i think were gonna be ok for some extended cold.

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-uksnow- Explorer

-uksnow-

Posted
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, Heat, Thunderstorms
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
Posted

the T120 FAX is completely ukmo gm and nowt ecm. looks interesting at day 5 though.

fax120s.gif?03-12

and the UKMO

UW120-21.GIF?03-18

hmmmm

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Tamara Maestro

Tamara

Posted
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal
  • Weather Preferences: The most likely outcome. The MJO is only half the story!
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal
Posted

The viewpoints on here continue to be very interesting..smile.png Tentatively I would suggest that the ECM ensembles are interesting too in their own waysmile.png

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

Sorry but there is something fishy about the snow warning tomorrow for parts of the UK

fishy_zps72f6cc56.png?t=1359928198

rofl.gifrofl.gif

care to explain please Gavin in spite of so many likes?

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

Here is the total snow accumulation by Tues afternoon... Don't think anyone's going to get "battered" http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=weas&HH=45&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Author
Posted

care to explain please Gavin in spite of so many likes?

The fish shaped yellow warning over NI and NWEng, John!

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Changes now starting to be seen. 18z at 138 vs 12z at the same stage. Looks an upgrade to my very much untrained eye!

gfs-0-138.png?18gfs-0-144.png?12

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

care to explain please Gavin in spite of so many likes?

The answer lies in the shape of the southernmost warning. Once you see it it's quite easy to plaice where he's coming from...

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

The fish shaped yellow warning over NI and NWEng, John!

best I go to bed I think, all this is too much for my old brain

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Here is the total snow accumulation by Tues afternoon... Don't think anyone's going to get "battered" http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Accumulations were always going to be ifficult to come by and I think best chance is Tuesday morning. Showers will probably turn to hail and rain in the afternoon as the warm sector passes through but turning to snow again through Tuesday night.

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted (edited)

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-138.png?18

Notice the GFS is flaunting its biggest weakness today & the 18z shows it beginning to back down- The GFS will want to move the entire energy West to East with no seperation / trough disruption that allows systems to seperate.

For the last 2 days this has been the case with the GFS, well now we find that the energy in the atlantic is beginning to seperate- 1 pulse going NE & the other SE- however the 18z wont quite get there & the shortwaves will have minimal distance between them-

eventually when the GFS catches up that shortwave diving Se in the atlantic may be in the same place, but the rest of the energy will be a long way further north west- hence the whole blocking will be NW....

S

Edited by Steve Murr
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

best I go to bed I think, all this is too much for my old brain

Not to worry, John. I think it looks like an alien!

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Mair Snaw Veteran

Mair Snaw

Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
Posted

Is that hmmmmm in a good way or a bad way? Thanks GSL

Think its in a good way, i think thats 1020hp over Scandie possible that the front stalls over the east. hope ive read that right?

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

I think this probably counts as a GFS 'backtrack'!?

gfs-0-162.png?18

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