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Winter Model Discussion 18Z 3/2/13 onwards.


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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Please carry on here.

Please be polite and try and justify your posts with reasoned analysis and charts where appropriate. No bickering, trolling or anything off topic.

We are seeing a lot of postings with musings from twitter - please only post these if they are relevent to the models and are taken in context. Please quote the source and give a link - otherwise your post may disappear as this is not the rumour model thread.

Thank you.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Hard to say atm which way we go after this week's northerly, as there's quite alot of support from the 12z EPS postage stamps for the slider low to occur next weekend as per 12z EC deteministic:

http://www.ecmwf.int...t!2013020312!!/

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

http://www.knmi.nl/e...M_06260_NWT.png

ZERO scatter. pro-tweetastic.

Thought that would be the case, just looking at the mean (lazy me blum.gif) it looked like strong agreement up to T192

Spanner definitely thrown in the works at Met HQ

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Hard to say atm which way we go after this week's northerly, as there's quite alot of support from the 12z EPS postage stamps for the slider low to occur next weekend as per 12z EC deteministic:

http://www.ecmwf.int...t!2013020312!!/

and thats what happened last cold spell but difference this time is there is an alantic ridge which complicates things a little.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs

ECM ensembles very reflective of the OP which is a surprise given the shaky foundations of the evolution. As Nick S says though, if the ECM is handling the system over the US wrongly it very likely tilts matters the wrong way for the UK, given that we have no margin for error anyway based on tonights output.

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Posted
  • Location: Hemel Hempstead, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hemel Hempstead, Hertfordshire

ECM ensembles very reflective of the OP which is a surprise given the shaky foundations of the evolution. As Nick S says though, if the ECM is handling the system over the US wrongly it very likely tilts matters the wrong way for the UK, given that we have no margin for error anyway based on tonights output.

You would've thought though, with all those ensembles tweaked slightly to bring difference in to the runs, the scatter would be greater?

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

So all 51 ensemble members are handling the system over the US wrong ? Give me strength.

rofl.gifrofl.gif .id suspect that thats not quite the case
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

As of now, I still remain very unconvinced about the upcoming 'Big Freeze'...We may be able to predict what a model's next move will be, but model outputs are not weather...

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Reposted from JH from last thread

How about we have a touch of reality and realism in here from a few of you?

How newcomers are supposed to pick up what is happening when there is so much niggling going on I do not know.

For their benefit, on Net Wx free version, link below is a link showing how the different models are portraying the weather out to T+240 (for those that go that far).

http://www.netweathe...modelcomp;sess=

A tip Do NOT try to put surface detail on beyond about T+96 no matter what any model shows. It will not be like that at T+00. Look at the black line on each chart to see if the shape it has is the same on each model. If it is then even at T+240 one can have a reasonable amount of confidence in what the upper air, which is what that black line is showing, being near enough as it is shown. If there is much difference then step back 24 hours until it does look the same on each chart.

For instance, the 12 output, showing at the moment (as of 2016 Sunday 3 February=it will update with the next model outputs), at T+240 they are not really alike in the west of the chart. ECMWF has a trough which GFS does not hence quite different weather will develop as a result of that.

Try the T+216 hours, and again there is a difference, this time its the its the position of the ridge, one has it over Europe the other west of the UK.

So try the T+192 = still a difference in the position of that upper ridge

The 168=nope, one has a flattish flow the other has not-put in very simple terms

T+144 and not that far out but some differences so to the T+120 and it is fairly close on the major two but it comes from the T+96 which GFS showed quite a ridge with ECMWF not as marked one, so down to the 72 then the 48 and the 24 hour, and all of those charts, looking initially at the upper air using the black line are pretty close.

That then allows us to take a closer look at each model and what it is suggesting for the surface.

If one does that say using the 00 and 12z runs it will give a far more balanced view of what is likely in the time scales I've dealt with.

Of course you could become a jh convert and largely use the 500mb anomaly charts for the longer time scales, that is 6-15 days ahead, T+144 to 240 and beyond!

Hope that helps to show new folk how to have a go at what the models are showing and how much belief we can put in them

One final thing, no matter how clever any of us think we are, old man weather loves to make us look foolish-but it can be fun, but oh why do some of you have to keep having a dig at someone else. pack it in then this forum would be a much friendlier place-honest.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

http://www.knmi.nl/e...M_06260_NWT.png

ZERO scatter. pro-tweetastic.

Those are very impressive but will the London ones have so little scatter?

Either way they are encouraging. Big day tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Winters
  • Location: Huddersfield

ECM ensembles very reflective of the OP which is a surprise given the shaky foundations of the evolution. As Nick S says though, if the ECM is handling the system over the US wrongly it very likely tilts matters the wrong way for the UK, given that we have no margin for error anyway based on tonights output.

Hi Ian

Just wondered because I saw a post from sm on the other thread and I am sure he said that with the ECM there is room for some eastward correction but I notice you and nick reckon its more high risk

Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

I will say for the first time, my impression of an easterly has risen from low to moderate chance. Still a long way to go until we laugh at GFS again (or not of course). Of course a cold spell not to develop, about 90% tonights ECM esembles would have to be very wrong at T90 with the development of that low off the eastern seaboard. Of course it can be.

Pub run incoming, I suspect it won't follow the ECM but will create a messy battleground over the UK

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

http://www.knmi.nl/e...M_06260_NWT.png

ZERO scatter. pro-tweetastic.

Very Promising ECM ensembles.

Even the GFS op would be in that lot though because de Bilt is just that further east.

Hopefully we will see the same for the London ensembles. Has anyone viewed the clusters yet?

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

From Matt Hugo

Fascinating set of 12z EC ENS with 31 ensemble members support the Det model with trough disruption around 168hrs.

Without question the 12z EC ENS support the 12 EC model more this evening which extends the colder weather into/beyond next weekend.

Until the consistency develops its hard to side with a model but the ECMWF model may well just 'win' this battle now...

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Posted
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.

As of now, I still remain very unconvinced about the upcoming 'Big Freeze'...We may be able to predict what a model's next move will be, but model outputs are not weather...

LOL !

Well is there any point in posting in the mod discussion thread then?

As you say the model outputs are not the weather..

Well yes to some extent true however the models are the closest thing we do have in terms of being able to paint a picture of what the weather holds and this will always be the case.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Very Promising ECM ensembles.

Even the GFS op would be in that lot though because de Bilt is just that further east.

Hopefully we will see the same for the London ensembles. Has anyone viewed the clusters yet?

as nick f says. good support for the slider next weekend. the spreads show the energy headed ne mid run goes way ne through svaalbard and beyond. the other split energy heads se into iberia. all good for maintaining us under the influence of the euro trough. at days 9 and 10 the uk falls right into battleground territory on a n/s axis though day 10 shows the block to the east fighting back. quite vague by then though. ens mean at day 10 is very similar to the 00z run but backed west again by a few hundred miles.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

31 out of 52 ecm ensembles have the trough disrupted / slider low at 168hrs. On that basis it's got about a 60-% chance. On the basis that the majority of other models are still against the easterly I would give it a 40% chance overall which is up on the 30% I gave it last night. Getting a bit tireing now... Hopefully we can have some model consensus tommorow!

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds

ECM ensembles very reflective of the OP which is a surprise given the shaky foundations of the evolution. As Nick S says though, if the ECM is handling the system over the US wrongly it very likely tilts matters the wrong way for the UK, given that we have no margin for error anyway based on tonights output.

I think you may be correct Ian, maybe all 51 ensemble members are handling the US pattern wrong good.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl

Fascinating stuff and with GFS and ECM very different from T168, i will wait to see what UKMO has to show tomorrow as i felt they were most accurate in December 2012 and last cold spell in Jan 2013(Can't comment on previous years as only joined forum late Oct 2012).Would love ECM to be right as it would give most of UK snow opportunities at different times in next 10 days but i just have a heart ruling head feeling and after disappointment of "Beast from East" not materialising last December feel cautious about prolonged cold spell.

P.S.Just seen BBC24 forecast and only seems NW of UK will get snow in next 2 days with NE of UK getting Snow Wednesday.Midlands Southwards i feel very low risk of snow this working week.Hope for upgrades on that!!

Having viewed the updated fax charts they did show troughs in the flow which could deliver more widespread snow showers. These things will change and it will probably come down to now casting and looking at the radar. I do agree with what you say but in this type of setup surprises do happen.

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

Woud love to see the GFS get on board. If it doesn't and the ECm verifies, it will nevertheless always play a big part in the way i feel the weathers going to develop.

If it doesn't, and the ECM doesn't verify, I will still have a high regard for Steve and his analysis and predictive skills.

For me this is like seeing a game go to penalties with the ECm having scored the first one and GFS having missed it. We still can't really say who's going to win, and even when we know which has won, we'd be a little restrained afterwards in saying they did so because they were the better team

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

Woud love to see the GFS get on board. If it doesn't and the ECm verifies, it will nevertheless always play a big part in the way i feel the weathers going to develop.

If it doesn't, and the ECM doesn't verify, I will still have a high regard for Steve and his analysis and predictive skills.

For me this is like seeing a game go to penalties with the ECm having scored the first one and GFS having missed it. We still can't really say who's going to win, and even when we know which has won, we'd be a little restrained afterwards in saying they did so because they were the better team

GFS is England in a domestic competition shootout, always crashes out.. ECM once again standing by its guns, the mean very impressive, I feel GFS/UKMO will come onboard through tomorrow ( well I hope they do!).. Interesting times!
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Woud love to see the GFS get on board. If it doesn't and the ECm verifies, it will nevertheless always play a big part in the way i feel the weathers going to develop.

If it doesn't, and the ECM doesn't verify, I will still have a high regard for Steve and his analysis and predictive skills.

For me this is like seeing a game go to penalties with the ECm having scored the first one and GFS having missed it. We still can't really say who's going to win, and even when we know which has won, we'd be a little restrained afterwards in saying they did so because they were the better team

Fair dos, each to their own. I think the ECM op has caught something early and lead with it, now the ensembles go with it with other models moving towards it.

As for your analogy, for the love of god don't chose one of the models to be England rofl.gif

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