Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 12th January 2013>

[Polar Bear]

In the days before computers there was an element of suprise, catching every weather forecast you could was the only way to go, how about everyone closing down there systems until tomorrow night and have a taste of the old days!!!!!!!!!!lol

great idea... Dare you to post that on the MOD thread...... Then run for cover....

[noggin]

Quite since 3:30 with some very heavy bursts at times here in East Devon, though broken up and showery now. River is quite high after rising pretty quickly. Rain today 11.6mm according to weather station.

The Netweather social radar shows 10/10 snow in a few locations around Devon/Cornwall including Exeter and Plymouth and Truro.. hmm lol

Am in East Devon this weekend.

Re your mention of the river rising quickly (which river are you referring to, BTW, as I'm East Devon born and bred), some roads around me are starting to flood already, after just a few hours' light-ish rain. The ground is just so saturated. Some fields have been permanently flooded for over 4 months now.

[Mark Parsons]

great idea... Dare you to post that on the MOD thread...... Then run for cover....

I would probably be completely erased from Netweather, never to be heard of again lol!

[Jayfromcardiff]

Interestingly the GFS does give is something Tuesday morning;

The good thing is even if we do miss out on Monday, all models bar the ECM give us further potential all next week.

If things go to plan we could see quite a bit of snow, especially if we see any tomorrow night and monday. Full of potential over the next few days especially Tuesday now which looks very interesting!

[iowpompeylee]

I love the cold and the snow.and me more than anyone would love to see snow for us all.but I just cannot see the temps getting low enough for us all.im still hopefull but I'm thinking deep down that this cold spell episode might end up another damp squib for the south and snow for the north :-/ ESP with the ECM starting to flip the other way...I'm hoping as always though

[Wilxy]

yep we certainly havn't really downgraded this morning still lots of potential in the models next week with undercutting lows.

I love the cold and the snow.and me more than anyone would love to see snow for us all.but I just cannot see the temps getting low enough for us all.im still hopefull but I'm thinking deep down that this cold spell episode might end up another damp squib for the south and snow for the north :-/ ESP with the ECM starting to flip the other way...I'm hoping as always though

Did you get thunder last night cause my friend on the IOW gave me a ring around 12 saying he had thunder?

[iowpompeylee]

We had torrential hail and was woken up by it.i didn't hear the thunder by I've heard from a few people that there was.fingers crossed for this week

[A.J]

Thought I'd post this to help less experiencd members to get a handle on snow forecasting and the parameters required. Created by Net Weather's former Chief Forecaster John Holmes

[Wilxy]

We had torrential hail and was woken up by it.i didn't hear the thunder by I've heard from a few people that there was.fingers crossed for this week

i love the weather the IOW gets apparently it can get quite nasty there sometimes but exciting.

[philglossop]

Raining here again- roads aren't flooding.

As for snow- if the likes of December 2010 can't deliver here bar an inch or so, I can't see us getting January 1987 event.

I'd love to be wrong mind.

[dec10snow]

Morning guys! Not looking great today, but remember, it can still change at very short term!

Should have added, it's also raining here!

Edited January 12, 2013 by dec10snow

[quantock girl]

Cold rain has forced me back inside just in time to catch the BBC weather a few minutes ago.

Looks like BBC are going for that band of rain to turn to snow for the SW (not the far SW though - sorry guys, but things can still change...) on Monday, rather than travelling further East. I know things will change, but that forecast falls more in line with the fax charts posted this morning. Still evolving, still changing, but at least a chance!!

[Sainsbo]

Last BBC forecast shows snow quite widely over Gloustechire/Wilts and parts of Dorset on Monday. Just a litte further west and everyone can be happy!

[124alex]

Last BBC forecast shows snow quite widely over Gloustechire/Wilts and parts of Dorset on Monday. Just a litte further west and everyone can be happy!

bits of somerset too!

[dec10snow]

Cold rain has forced me back inside just in time to catch the BBC weather a few minutes ago.

Looks like BBC are going for that band of rain to turn to snow for the SW (not the far SW though - sorry guys, but things can still change...) on Monday, rather than travelling further East. I know things will change, but that forecast falls more in line with the fax charts posted this morning. Still evolving, still changing, but at least a chance!!

What do you mean by the far southwest?

Edit: okay don't worry, sainsbo cleared it up

Edited January 12, 2013 by dec10snow

[cerneman]

Last BBC forecast shows snow quite widely over Gloustechire/Wilts and parts of Dorset on Monday. Just a litte further west and everyone can be happy!

Yes just saw that,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,River here responding Quickly to rain, Ground so very sodden, Would not take much to overflow banks again

[Nights King]

Current temperature outside 3.5c with a gradual fall this morning.

shall see how this goes as we head past mid dayalthough not holding my breath.

[124alex]

W COUNTRY F'cast change: area of snow moves SE across region Sun eve/night. Snow likely anywhere approx Mendips N'wards: 1-2cm & 5cm uplands

W COUNTRY Sunday eve snow mostly over Glos uplands/ Mendips Plateau / uplands N Wilts. Maybe to 5cm these areas; 1-2cm lower Bristol, S Glos

From Fergie

[Mark Parsons]

This is doing my head in,yes it will no it wont, i'm off see you all later!

[khodds]

Current temperature outside 3.5c with a gradual fall this morning.

shall see how this goes as we head past mid dayalthough not holding my breath.

I'm coming up to your neck of the woods (mendips) tonight Mullender. Hope I see a few flakes falling. Tho like you im Not holding my breath tho. It's 5.2c here now so falling gradually.

[AWD]

W COUNTRY F'cast change: area of snow moves SE across region Sun eve/night. Snow likely anywhere approx Mendips N'wards: 1-2cm & 5cm uplands

W COUNTRY Sunday eve snow mostly over Glos uplands/ Mendips Plateau / uplands N Wilts. Maybe to 5cm these areas; 1-2cm lower Bristol, S Glos

From Fergie

That's a good improvement if indeed nothing major. Mullender will be happy.

This is from the first front the FAC charts showed.

Interesting times.

[Bristawl Si]

Trend may become the West's friend!

[gottolovethisweather]

Interestingly the GFS does give is something Tuesday morning;

The good thing is even if we do miss out on Monday, all models bar the ECM give us further potential next week.

Yes AWD and further to the points you make, I would stress that the more reliable GEFS 12z ensembles hinted at what you say above, when I look back at my post from yesterday.

Berkshire's best chances of SNOW suggested Tuesday 15th, Wednesday 16th and possibly Saturday 19th January as dates to watch. Further West, it was the period right through from Tuesday 15th to the 18th January which remains of interest.

I am not saying, that there is not any hope before the dates stated above, my view is that anything beforehand will be a nice BONUS. Also, I base the above on sound analysis from quite a few professional's viewpoint.

• Many leading agencies now believe that ensemble forecasting is the way forward for
  
• anything beyond 5 days – and sometimes even shorter.
  

Basically, I think we should be looking further ahead into next week for our BEST chances, as we simply need to get more entrenched air over us as time ticks by.

Edited January 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

Trend may become the West's friend!

The trend is my best mate currently. :p

[noggin]

I posted a post just now, and it's gone.

I was reporting that there is quite a bit of blue sky here and the sun is coming through a bit and dazzling me by reflecting on the laptop.

What was this boding in the way of snow, I wondered?