Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 12th January 2013>

[Gibby]

Hi Folks, Here's my thoughts on the output in general terms for our area. Today's events will be a bit of a non starter in my opinion with cloud and cold rain the most likely course of events through the day with the rain becoming lighter and more intermittent in slowly falling temperatures (Temps were 4.4C an hour ago now 3.8C). Tonight clouds will break eventually with a slight frost and some icy stretches over the hills, but slow cloud clearance may save us from the worst of frost. As per Monday I think most of our region is still too far West on current predictions with Eastern parts of the region at risk of snow which may turn to rain before dying out from the West later. As per later next week a greater chance of snow over a wider area seems likely as the cold advects West over the whole region. Beyond that its hard to call and discounting the ECM run for now further cold weather seems likely over the region with rain and snow events continuing well into the end of next week and beyond but we, as always in the SW will be living on the edge as to whether it is snow that falls or rain. That's how i see it this morning. See you all later.

[Beast of Plympton]

Just read Gibbys report in the model forum, he seems to saying little or nothing in the way of snow for the west....

I am no forecaster and have limited knowledge of the charts.

Penny for any more experienced thoughts? 2 pennies if its really good!

Ian

Hi Folks, Here's my thoughts on the output in general terms for our area. Today's events will be a bit of a non starter in my opinion with cloud and cold rain the most likely course of events through the day with the rain becoming lighter and more intermittent in slowly falling temperatures (Temps were 4.4C an hour ago now 3.8C). Tonight clouds will break eventually with a slight frost and some icy stretches over the hills, but slow cloud clearance may save us from the worst of frost. As per Monday I think most of our region is still too far West on current predictions with Eastern parts of the region at risk of snow which may turn to rain before dying out from the West later. As per later next week a greater chance of snow over a wider area seems likely as the cold advects West over the whole region. Beyond that its hard to call and discounting the ECM run for now further cold weather seems likely over the region with rain and snow events continuing well into the end of next week and beyond but we, as always in the SW will be living on the edge as to whether it is snow that falls or rain. That's how i see it this morning. See you all later.

Speak of the devil!! You read my mind Gibby!!

[Evening thunder]

Quite since 3:30 with some very heavy bursts at times here in East Devon, though broken up and showery now. River is quite high after rising pretty quickly. Rain today 11.6mm according to weather station.

The Netweather social radar shows 10/10 snow in a few locations around Devon/Cornwall including Exeter and Plymouth and Truro.. hmm lol

Am in East Devon this weekend.

[Iceberg]

Latest nae is out in full it does shift slightly to the east but still has snow for Somerset Dorset, wilts, glos etc at t42 ans snow for Dorset, wilts, glos etc at t48.

Light snow it has to be said.

[Bristawl Si]

Morning all!

Still up in the air for Monday then.

I'm not even bothered, for now, with later in the week - let's see what happens for Sunday night, Monday.

[caz100]

ekkkk so Cornwall Truro may see a sprinkle, how exciting, when is that ?

[ARTDEMOLE]

Rain is as good as what we shall be getting...4.5c. ESE 10mph....Just up the hill from Gibby so have to agree with the posts...Well done that man....

[Dave Kightley]

ekkkk so Cornwall Truro may see a sprinkle, how exciting, when is that ?

You'l be lucky as it's being a pain not shifting past Bristol lol

Latest nae is out in full it does shift slightly to the east but still has snow for Somerset Dorset, wilts, glos etc at t42 ans snow for Dorset, wilts, glos etc at t48.

Light snow it has to be said.

Take it and run. lol Edited January 12, 2013 by Dave Kightley

[Evening thunder]

ekkkk so Cornwall Truro may see a sprinkle, how exciting, when is that ?

If that was from my post I was referring to the Netweather 'social radar' where people on twitter report current conditions and it is plotted on the map, and some appear to be not 100% truthful reports lol. I don't think Truro has much chance in the next few days :/ but if it stays cold for a while who knows what may happen down the line

[Aceman]

Let's assume we're getting nothing, anything we do miraculously get will be a bonus! Time to book a holiday

[AWD]

NAE 48 hour chart;

All it would need is a 50-100 mile shift west. Still possible.

At least GTLTW will be happy with that chart!

[Beast of Plympton]

Quite since 3:30 with some very heavy bursts at times here in East Devon, though broken up and showery now. River is quite high after rising pretty quickly. Rain today 11.6mm according to weather station.

The Netweather social radar shows 10/10 snow in a few locations around Devon/Cornwall including Exeter and Plymouth and Truro.. hmm lol

Am in East Devon this weekend.

Hi Snowmad, sounds good.... where can I find this radar?

[divadee]

NAE 48 hour chart;

All it would need is a 50-100 mile shift west. Still possible.

At least GTLTW will be happy with that chart!

A shift westwards would be better for us here in bournemouth as well. Come on shift west!!!

[iowpompeylee]

Let's not beat around the bush just been out in ryde on the Isle of Wight and its windy,raining and considerably mild.i will eat my hat if we have a drop of the white stuff later tonight :-/

[AWD]

06z GFS shows snow - rain - snow on Monday for many of us north and east of Somerset/Dorset. Possibly all snow in parts of Wiltshire.

Would of been better has it not made that mild sector a little more pronounced.

Heavy snowfall for central England and the South East on this run.

Edited January 12, 2013 by AWD

[wallopweather]

Just driven to work in Amesbury the car registering a constant +3.5 degrees on the 10 mile drive here in steady rain. Biggest shock this morning was the amounts of surface water on the country roads, in several places it was across the road and the fields look absolutely saturated. Shows how little the water levels have dropped since the last period of heavy rain

Edited January 12, 2013 by wallopweather

[latitude]

No real shift west on the 06z run.

Looks like the pattern is pretty much certain now.

Snow moving into the Bristol region overnight turning to rain for a period before the colder uppers move in again. By then the PPN has gone.

Devon and Cornwall get just rain. But the colder uppers will be back from later Monday into next week by the looks of it.

Edited January 12, 2013 by latitude

[Duane S.]

Rain is as good as what we shall be getting...4.5c. ESE 10mph....Just up the hill from Gibby so have to agree with the posts...Well done that man....

Gibby has given a great forecast based on the real-time information that is available but this isn't cut and dry, far from it. As the main troghs drops through the UK I wouldn't be surprised to see a small mesoscale type feature form in behind it, bringing some joy to the south western quarter. These are notoriously difficuly to get right inside 24 hours, let alone this far out.

[Mark Parsons]

In the days before computers there was an element of suprise, catching every weather forecast you could was the only way to go, how about everyone closing down there systems until tomorrow night and have a taste of the old days!!!!!!!!!!lol

[caz100]

ok well wasn't really expecting any, little bit of snow excitement for me for a minute lol, its dry and sunny with blue skies, so my son is out and playing , so hes happy enjoy the snow watch...

[Iceberg]

Monday is now very very messy and complicated (when is it not).

Two charts both 06z so latest models nae and gfs, neither of them covered themselves with glory tbh with today's weather 24 hrs out. Bth underestimating both the precip intensity and how far north it would be.

Both charts showing 1000-850 thicknesses I.e how cold the air is near the surface, essentially blue is cold enough for snow under this set up.

Nae is obviously better, but gfs at higher res does still bring the first band as snow early Sunday night, then a bad of rain/sleet for most as it develops the closed circulation over the sw, then the feeder band behind for Monday is cold again and of snow.

Looking at previous models etc there doesnt seem much support for the gfs solution of swinging the warm sector east under a close low.

In short expect major changes, but various possibilities.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Iceberg

[AWD]

No real shift west on the 06z run.

Looks like the pattern is pretty much certain now.

Snow moving into the Bristol region overnight turning to rain for a period before the colder uppers move in again. By then the PPN has gone.

Devon and Cornwall get just rain. But the colder uppers will be back from later Monday into next week by the looks of it.

Nothing is certain until the event has arrived. I remember times in the past when T6 as been wrong and snow as fell further west/east/south/north as predicted.

I agree there is increased confidence based on the overnight model data for us to be a tad too far west for the main event, but I will not be finalising the outcome until stuff falls from the sky

Onto the 12z data, lets see if we can get anything from them. Step forward last night, step back this morning. Need a shift west tonight otherwise we just got to hope on the off chance the models and Met Office are wrong in the day.

And get rid of the ruddy warm sector!

Edited January 12, 2013 by AWD

[Jayfromcardiff]

Never know, if the cold proves strong maybe the ppn might grind to a hold around the midlands area and stall - wishful thinking haha! I think the cut off line will be Bristol and i'll miss out by a short margin as per.

[Polar Bear]

NAE 48 hour chart;

All it would need is a 50-100 mile shift west. Still possible.

At least GTLTW will be happy with that chart!

and me! ... Rain currently in Newbury albeit light now.. Temps defo feel like they are dropping ( haven't had a chance to check local readings) . Did have a look at the midlands thread and appears more like wet snow for some.. Hoping it does continue south later. Have to admit the light or colour of clouds seems to be changing .. Maybes imagination or wishful thinking..

[AWD]

Interestingly the GFS does give is something Tuesday morning;

The good thing is even if we do miss out on Monday, all models bar the ECM give us further potential next week.

Edited January 12, 2013 by AWD