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Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards


reef

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Posted
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales

As a canadian living in south east wales I am very excited with the current model runs ....I have been reading through the thread since 15.00 and its got better and better. The Ecm was a real cliff hanger but really chuffed to se it agree with the GFS models of the last few days.

I must say its GFS 1 ECM O on this upcoming event.

As a novice at reading the models in any great detail can anyone tell what the chances are of seeing the white stuff on the weekend based on the current model outputs ?

would be gutted to miss out !!

PS left trouser leg** off with met off etc for being so scared to put their necks on the lie a bit more!!

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

Atlantic, Bartlett, Early Spring, Zonal, Faux Cold,

Your boys took one hell of a beating

(normal caveats apply!)

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Posted
  • Location: Reading, Berkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Thundery or Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Reading, Berkshire

Wow, just wow sums up tonights model runs! Just incredible! Never seen so much snow potential at this range before nor so heavily all agreed by the models (or can't remember ever seeing so) On a selfish note Saturday remains my main interest, could be a very snowy day for Reading and much of Central/SE parts if it verified, don't want to get too attached to anything past that lol

The ECM is just insane though having two successive lows sweep through wrapped up in the cold uppers, i can't imagine the amount of snow that would drop in favoured spots ohmy.png Even Devon could get a good covering from the second low, though it could be marginal especially at the coast.

Edited by Supercell 89
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

It would be nice to see how that compares to a standard weather pattern for our neck of the woods at +96,

As I get the feeling that the chat you posted is not that bad.

PS I wouldn't post to many net weather extra charts, but nice to know what you can get with extra subscription.

It might not be that bad in relative terms, but when a small change could mean the difference between full scale cold or the Atlantic coming back in, it suddenly becomes a lot more important. The most likely outcome now is for colder weather to push in through the weekend with snow for some, beyond into next week growing confidence that it's going to turn MUCH colder still but obviously we're still unconfident on that front

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

When do you all think the papers will start printing the headlines?

just look deep into fantasy world .the papers will be calling it the day after tomorrow weather!!

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Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather what else!
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset

It might not be that bad in relative terms, but when a small change could mean the difference between full scale cold or the Atlantic coming back in, it suddenly becomes a lot more important. The most likely outcome now is for colder weather to push in through the weekend with snow for some, beyond into next week growing confidence that it's going to turn MUCH colder still but obviously we're still unconfident on that front

Fully agree with you, as Steve m and nick s have said, the crucial time frame is relatively close.

Finger's crossed.

Edited by thunderman24
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Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire

When do you all think the papers will start printing the headlines?

The Express is going to probably read 'UK SET FOR BBQ AND 35C TEMPS NEXT WEEK'

Thats how much faith I have in that paper.

SM

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Posted
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.

Great to see some consistency between the models. Remember the Cohen climatology? Well the Greenland heights fit right in with that and also a certain Mr Rampling's thoughts and the strat position and the MJO forecasts. When we bang on about strat warmings it is about these synoptics that they can create (I know that they haven't verified yet but we are headed in the right direction).

Evening Chino,

I am trying to learn about the strat side and its effects with your excellent thread. I am just a bit bamboozled as i thought the potential that we see before us has nothing to do with a warming and the potential effects of a warming would not be felt mid-late January?

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow, Thunderstorms & Summer Plumes
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk

WTF, I dont know what to say.

115 people like this post...most people I've ever seen do this on this forum on 1 post lol!

Edited by Chris D
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Posted
  • Location: Southampton 10 meters above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Frosty & Sunny
  • Location: Southampton 10 meters above mean sea level

Atlantic, Bartlett, Early Spring, Zonal, Faux Cold,

Your boys took one hell of a beating

(normal caveats apply!)

It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings! MORE runs needed excl.png

But I like this one...

11_120_850tmp.png?cb=256

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Posted
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock

Yeah... But that GEFS is playing on my mind... :-)

I won't allow myself get too carried away until this time tomorrow!

Surely the GEFS are going to be wrong? Steve Murr says its all down to the split in the jet around tip of greenland. The GEFS have a lower resolution and different start data, so of course they will resolve the split differently.

I would still back the UkMO, ECM and GFS even if all 20 members of the GEFs show the atlantic influence.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington

well according to the ECM the fun starts at t72 and never lets up that at least a week of cold and snow with conditions getting steadily more extreme. If ECM's 240 chart varified http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif!! It would stay cold for at least another five days after 240 which would be almost 2 weeks of intense winter conditions, everyone would get snow out of those charts, everyone!!

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Posted
  • Location: Portishead
  • Location: Portishead

Can anybody explain what this means in complete newbie terms? A poster called Iceberg said this earlier :

"First off we've got the GFS; probably not as good as the 06Z beyond the reliable and that doesnt matter tbh, upto T144 we should see some good continuity hopefully.

Then Meto and the smaller models, again an inch towards the 06 GFS would be good.

Finally the ECM, A little birdy has told me that the the 12Z and 00Z ECms from the last two runs had a very different 300-100mb temp profile across sections of the atlantic sourced from a sat sweep (one sat sweep for both), the 12z today should be the first ecm with a new updated sat sweep and my gut tells me that ecm will revert to GH height rises in the medium term."

Does that mean that the ECM had the wrong data fro the previous two runs and that is why there is a big turn around?

Put simply, progressive weather chart runs are based on updated satellite data being recorded inbetween the runs. At times there are a fewer amount of Satellites in a given area so therefore the data may be more unreliable or out of date (only by a few hours).

You can actually get charts illustrating how many satellites recorded the data over a given area, which were accepted as accurate and which were disregarded!

Anyhow, I would say that Iceberg was essentially saying that the 12z has an updated satellite sweep of the data received of areas of the Atlantic, therefor increasing the 'accuracy' of the 12z over the previous 2 runs.

Edited by Paul T
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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m

From looking at the esembles it looks like the gfs 12z was a cold outliar in the way it keeps the very cold air over the UK between 13th and 21st january.

t850West~Yorkshire.png

Most other perpetration's go with what I'm thinking, initial cold airflow around the weekend, becoming less cold (as our high tries to retrogress towards greenland with warmer air riding over it from the north west), with it then becoming cold again. How cold and snowy it will become at that stage is very much in question though.

Edited by Harsh Climate
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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted · Hidden by reef, January 8, 2013 - Enough
Hidden by reef, January 8, 2013 - Enough

well...... do we think Ian Brown feels like a man who fell into a barrel of t*ts and came out sucking his thumb.......?

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Posted
  • Location: East Anglia
  • Location: East Anglia

Really nice to see cross model agreement, I don’t however expect that to continue out to the ranges we have seen this evening on every run, out to 120 – 144 will do. ECM ensembles the next to navigate so expect some panic if the OP has little support. It’s the next couple of days operational runs that interest me because it’s still too early for handing out plaudits and we know if it can go wrong it will go wrong.

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Posted
  • Location: Deal
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Deal

I really feel this will be a short lived cool snap that is being massively overdone by the models & will stick my neck on the line to say there will be very little snow at low levels in England,mainly sleet & mainly dry in Scotland, the easterly's will only last a few days not allowing the really cold air to arrive before a slow breakdown from the west. I know this is not what people want to hear & is defiantly not what I want to be posting on here as I am a massive snow fan. I am no where near as knowledgeable as a lot of people on here but I do tend to have a knack of being right when it comes to forecasting weather. But I am hoping that I will be wrong & really don't mind if I get slated for being wrong providing we get the cold weather everyone is after ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Regardless of the stunning post 96 output from the 12zs. The T96 period has solid cross model support and it has snow potential written all over it,

ECM

Recm961.gif

GFS

Rtavn961.png

UKMO

Rukm961.gif

GEM

Rgem961.gif

JMA

Rjma961.gif

NOGAPS

Rngp961.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Plenty to be upbeat about in the model runs this evening that`s for sure.I think the hunt for cold is nearly over.

So we can keep this thread for Model discussion if any of you want to just chat or exchange general views about snow etc our chatroom is available.

Alternatively members are welcome to ramp,go nuts or simply express their feelings over the weather charts etc. in here.

http://forum.netweat...n-ramp-go-nuts/

Great runs for cold lovers this evening but let`s keep this thread on topic.

Thanks all.smile.png

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