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Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards


reef

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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

Just be reading through the thread to get a feel of the excitment in here. 42 pages since the

early hours of this morning. MADNESS.

Incredible runs this evening but you have to say a massive hats off to the GFS twice this week

it looks to have called things right in regards to handling the energy coming out of the states

with the energy in the Atlantic. The ECM definitely playing second fiddle catch up here not that

anyone will be really that bothered when you have cross model agreement a mega cold spell

coming up.

Truely amazing synoptics being shown now people are not going to know whats hit them after

the benign weather we have been experiencing. This SSW owes us big time if it was this that

altered the weather back in December and boy it looks as though it will pay up.

Don't forget to nip to the supermarket for the snow shovells before they run out.

Edited by cooling climate
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Posted
  • Location: lizard pen south cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: summer thunderstorms snow snow snow
  • Location: lizard pen south cornwall

Can't see even Cornwall missing out if this run comes off.

dont you believe it . Getting snow to the uk is one thing,getting it down here is quite another.

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Posted
  • Location: Blackpool, Lancashire
  • Location: Blackpool, Lancashire

I hate to ask but from a selfish IMBY point of view should I get remotely excited for us in the west of Ireland??

If not enjoy your cold spell those who will get itgood.gif

I'm still wondering if I'll get snow in Blackpool, we'll have to wait and see.

Should these runs come off however, a cold snap will hit the entire of the UK and Ireland

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Posted
  • Location: Dunstable 446ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: cold with frost & snow in winter; hot and dry in summer
  • Location: Dunstable 446ft ASL

What an evening of model watching!! I do feel as though its been coming to be honest. Lets enjoy it while it lasts as these moments dont come along very often. Hats off to IB for coming on and facing up. Lets hope it proves to be as special on the ground as these charts are suggesting. Highly unlikely I know but we can dream !

Enjoy......

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Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

So what are the verification stats at day 4?

Surely it cant go Pete Tong for the weekend at least?

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Location: Cambridge

Can anybody explain what this means in complete newbie terms? A poster called Iceberg said this earlier :

"First off we've got the GFS; probably not as good as the 06Z beyond the reliable and that doesnt matter tbh, upto T144 we should see some good continuity hopefully.

Then Meto and the smaller models, again an inch towards the 06 GFS would be good.

Finally the ECM, A little birdy has told me that the the 12Z and 00Z ECms from the last two runs had a very different 300-100mb temp profile across sections of the atlantic sourced from a sat sweep (one sat sweep for both), the 12z today should be the first ecm with a new updated sat sweep and my gut tells me that ecm will revert to GH height rises in the medium term."

Does that mean that the ECM had the wrong data fro the previous two runs and that is why there is a big turn around?

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Posted
  • Location: Hindolveston North Norfolk 68m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Warm summers Cold Frosty winters
  • Location: Hindolveston North Norfolk 68m asl

BBC look east, just giving a cooling trend with daytime max over the weekend 5c and a min overnight low 2c no mention of any wintry precipitation think they will be needing to update a touch rofl.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Some great runs, what is nice to see is the UKMO totally on board, if there is a model that is going to not go for a cold spell and be right more often than it isn't, it'll be the UKMO.

ECM is a superb run, big hints of a shift tonight in the models, though obviously still plenty of questions to be answered. Even so, with such a powerful warming with repeated warming bursts, I just can't see any organised PV any time soon after this recent SSW.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

These are the times that really shred the nerves because as SM mentioned the key components start relatively early.

So its not like viewing a great chart well into FI. You sort of expect that to not verify, here its so close you can almost smell the snow!

You'd be hard pressed to find a better set up for the UK than that shown by the ECM. It probably wont turn out like that in terms of detail but if you get the right upstream pattern before 144hrs then the knock on effect from that is a good chance of some proper wintry weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Savoy Circus W10 / W3
  • Location: Savoy Circus W10 / W3

This is what i would refer to as the Anvil (or Hammer) of Doom = Cobra Meetings (if they can even manage to communicate)

At least we will have something to blame the economy on if this were to come off

post-10554-0-62491100-1357672269_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

Hmm, looks ok :-)

For the last 48 hours we have seen a strengthening Scandi high. I have suspected that this would become more and more prominant in the output and I know John Holmes was commenting the other day that conditions were rife for this.

In my mind the key difference this time is that this is a proper cold scandi high not our usual displaced euro high or ridge from a high pressure cell 4000 miles away. If I have a niggle this evening its not about mild weather it is that the scandi high will continue to exert more and more influence and pressure will rise. It's a very small niggle though and things look really good tonight.

At the range of 4 days always back the opp runs.

Jason

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Truly remarkable charts from ECM this evening, and then to have cma with all the big 3 too. I am starting to get excited, but i am fully aware - whether it be snow in winter or storms in summer, things can still change and this may come to very little. Not wanting to burst anyone's bubble, my bubble is currently growing by each run, but its not set in stone yet.

Well, i'd say the fact its going to get cold is set in stone - but snowfall (whether it will, where it will, how much) is still yet to be decided.

However, if things did come off as on the ECM - there would be some of the deepest snow seen in a long time for many :)

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Posted
  • Location: Savoy Circus W10 / W3
  • Location: Savoy Circus W10 / W3

Can anybody explain what this means in complete newbie terms? A poster called Iceberg said this earlier :

"First off we've got the GFS; probably not as good as the 06Z beyond the reliable and that doesnt matter tbh, upto T144 we should see some good continuity hopefully.

Then Meto and the smaller models, again an inch towards the 06 GFS would be good.

Finally the ECM, A little birdy has told me that the the 12Z and 00Z ECms from the last two runs had a very different 300-100mb temp profile across sections of the atlantic sourced from a sat sweep (one sat sweep for both), the 12z today should be the first ecm with a new updated sat sweep and my gut tells me that ecm will revert to GH height rises in the medium term."

Does that mean that the ECM had the wrong data fro the previous two runs and that is why there is a big turn around?

Thanks for reminding everyone about this - it certainly piqued my interest when I read it (hat tip to Iceberg)

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

A possibility for the SW in the next few weeks Fred.

No......PRIME position at times in my outlook.....and within 9-12 days

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers and cold snowy winters
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells

Checking over the other forecast sites fo my area of Watford, the 'weatheroutlook' is the only one to have snow for Saturday evening - suspect we have a forecaster's nightmare in the offing.

Most of those sites only update every six hours or so and will be using old data.

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Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL

Without going into ramp mode - those days are gone-

SPLIT flow = 100% WIN.- so if the split flow lands at 96 over the western tip of greenland it will be 100% chance of varification for the UK.

So rememeber whilst those fab charts are in seemingly FI tonight the split flow is just T96 for greenland-

S

Steve I was thinking to myself earlier the week that with your turn around in slight negativity to any snow chances would in turn bring about the opposite in reality!

Low and behold and Bingo!!!! So keep as you were mate lol it worked a treat.......we hope :)

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

Yeah... But that GEFS is playing on my mind... :-)

I won't allow myself get too carried away until this time tomorrow!

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

Just be reading through the thread to get a feel of the excitment in here. 42 pages since the

early hours of this morning. MADNESS.

Incredible runs this evening but you have to say a massive hats off to the GFS twice this week

it looks to have called things right in regards to handling the energy coming out of the states

with the energy in the Atlantic. The ECM definitely playing second fiddle catch up here not that

anyone will be really that bothered when you have cross model agreement a mega cold spell

coming up.

Truely amazing synoptics being shown now people are not going to know whats hit them after

the benign weather we have been experiencing. This SSW owes us big time if it was this that

altered the weather back in December and boy it looks as though it will pay up.

Don't forget to nip to the supermarket for the snow shovells before they run out.

I agree mate , I'm really impressed with the gfs consistency the last 4 runs , seems as though it has the right minerals this time, if we get to thurs and the wkend snow event is still there then I will really believe , but fantastic trends.

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Posted
  • Location: Brussels, Belgium
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy weather in winter, dry and warm weather in summer
  • Location: Brussels, Belgium

I'm still wondering if I'll get snow in Blackpool, we'll have to wait and see.

I think all of us should see snow in some snow should these models verify. If you live in North-West England or Northern/Western Ireland a northerly should do the trick (some of the later frames show this). An easterly would be the only good thing for my area because it would be able to cross a substantial body of water, whereas a northerly would leave us fairly out of the way (such as in December 2010).

I wish we could all share in the delight! :( I suggest we all pack our bags and head to the south and eastern coasts! :D

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Posted
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf

What we want now is the GEFS Suite to start settling down and the ECM Ensemble suite to start also settling down at mid range...Along with Ops and controls to be consistant...ly cold...then ill be happy...(along with the chinese model on board later)biggrin.png

Edited by ChartViewer
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Re: TV Forecasts

They'll still be using old data, watch the 10:30 forecast after the news, I'd have thought they'd be using the new 12z data by then!

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow , thunderstorms and wind
  • Location: Dublin, ireland

Just watched the weather forecast on Irish TV (they use the ECM for their forecasts). They're still going for westerlies next week! They obviously haven't seen the latest output! biggrin.png

Yes, This mornings 7.55am forecast from "Met Eireann" certainly is not going for cold, I have kept a copy of it to see if it verifies.

"There will be frost and icy patches Friday night and Saturday night but there is a possibility of cloudy, milder weather again moving in from the Atlantic during Sunday and Sunday night bringing temperatures back up to between 8 and 12 degrees for next week with some wet and windy spells likely."

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

lol! just got back from work and hardly nothing has been answered apart from a cooling towards this weekend...I think for the sake of my own health I'll stay away from this board until the weekend (still will be up in the air),

I love looking at the models at this time of year and thought the debacle of last February was enough but this has been eclipsed!

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