Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards

[SnowBallz]

Ian Fergie did indeed make mention of the very latest updated models

Exciting times ahead...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Ian F just mentioned that it s going to get cold on weekend and although he showed rain he emphasised it could be a fair bit more wintry. He then said updated models show even colder into next week but also that model confidence is at record low levels..........great forecast and very viewer friendly

BFTP

Edited January 8, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[ChartViewer]

BOM216

BOM240

[Tom D]

Interestingly the GEFS control is very similar to the UKMO up to around t+108 hours, before we see the importance of a link up between the Iberian high and the Greenland high for preventing the Atlantic breaking through and upsetting everyone.

GEFS control t+96 http://modeles.meteo...s-0-1-96.png?12

UKMO t+96 http://www.meteociel...96-21.GIF?08-18

Please note the short wave over S Greenland, which is more pronounced in the ECM operational at t+96

ECM t+96 http://www.meteociel...812/ECM1-96.GIF

By t+144 we see how important that is with regards to the link-up of the aforementioned highs.

GEFS control t+144 http://modeles.meteo...-0-1-144.png?12

UKMO t+144 http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?08-18

That doesn't mean to say it's not been a great set of 12z runs but it's far from a smooth ride from here.

Edited January 8, 2013 by Tom D

[UV-RAY]

Oh well you get enough...now it's our turn lol

We haven't seen snow since December 2011.

[trisnow]

I've changed to watch him.......fingers crossed

BFTP

I also rushed to find BBC Points West when I saw this and Ian did us proud! lol Even going so far as to say that the rain icon they were showing for saturday may not be representative of what will actually happen according to the very latest models that have just come out that are a lot more wintry! Whoop!

[Jonan92]

Amazing

[nick sussex]

what about the shortwaves Nick? only joking

Give me time I'm still recovering from the ECM output! lol

I'm almost lost for words, but you know me! I was hoping for some backtrack from the ECM but even I'm shocked at one of the biggest I've ever seen from it.

[iowpompeylee]

The pub run will be huge tonight.will be curious to see how many are on at 430am :-)

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013010812/ECH1-240.GIF?08-0

here she comes- just slightly delayed with that huge block in control-

I would plant FI tonight around 120 to see where the track of that energy is going from Greenland.... anywhere south of south east is perfect-

S

[bluearmy]

great shame on ecm at day 10............................................. that the run finishes !!!

[TEITS]

Those are for Monday

Bit more marginal in the west and south west through the weekend

Yes I know and the poster was referring to Monday I thought with regards to the LP sinking SE.

Shame the ECM doesn't go any further because it would get even colder from the NE!

[Stu_London]

I would put FI slightly later because even the ensembles agree on the initial thrust of cold from the E as the mean drops to -9C. The next stage of uncertainty for me is on Monday and whether the 12Z ECM is right with the LP sinking SE as the 06Z suggested.

I think the cold for the weekend is pretty nailed on - we've seen the ppn chop and change right up to the last minute, so actual snow might be a concern as well as some marginality the further west you are earlier in the weekend.

All set up for great model and actual weather observing.

[Methuselah]

Sorry peeps. but I WILL NOT get excited!

[cornish snow]

David Brain on spotlight a minute ago no mention of cold next week . Just a bit colder over the weekend with rain .

mind you,this is cornwall afterall. Dont want the palm trees getting snowed on.

[tight isobar]

Lets take a back seat for one mo, and be honest most of the real is in latter frames...but you have to be honest,its coming one way or the other.heights cannot now be disscounted, or otherwise..

[Backtrack]

Caution is advised - We've seen two ECM's at the milder end of it's ensembles, now it's exploring the colder option. More runs needed.

[Jason74]

Splendid snowy runs from the 12z suite, however I would urge a note of caution based on the GFS ensembles.

Cold snap ON

Cold spell still to bag.

IMBY - :-)

Absolutely.

More runs needed, I feel.

[TwisterGirl81]

We haven't seen snow since December 2011.

We've not seen snow since Jan '10 I don't think and you guys get bucketfuls

[cold snap]

Give me time I'm still recovering from the ECM output! lol

I'm almost lost for words, but you know me! I was hoping for some backtrack from the ECM but even I'm shocked at one of the biggest I've ever seen from it.

So nick when will the gfs backtrack towards the ECM ?

If you see what I mean

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

David Brain on spotlight a minute ago no mention of cold next week . Just a bit colder over the weekend with rain .

mind you,this is cornwall afterall. Dont want the palm trees getting snowed on.

I think Ian Ferguson said last night that the 12z data is not used in forecasts at this time in the day, hense no mention of cold (model inconsistency too won't help).

[mike Meehan]

David Brain on spotlight a minute ago no mention of cold next week . Just a bit colder over the weekend with rain .

mind you,this is cornwall afterall. Dont want the palm trees getting snowed on.

Why not - they get snowed on in Southern France

[kumquat]

David Brain on spotlight a minute ago no mention of cold next week . Just a bit colder over the weekend with rain .

mind you,this is cornwall afterall. Dont want the palm trees getting snowed on.

Can't see even Cornwall missing out if this run comes off.

[mcweather]

northern Blocking and a shortwave in the southwest approaches around the 18/19th January

It couldn't be could it? lol

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1881/Rrea00118810119.gif

for newbies who don't get where i'm coming from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blizzard_of_January_1881

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

David Brain on spotlight a minute ago no mention of cold next week . Just a bit colder over the weekend with rain .

mind you,this is cornwall afterall. Dont want the palm trees getting snowed on.

You live on the lizard peninsula? Must be hard pushed to get snow there unless its an exceptional month like Dec 2010.