Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Split flow is the player, jet to then send energy south. ECM T216 will we see the LP assault from SW for mega snowfest...after the first one? Or another assault from the North Sea

BFTP

Edited January 8, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[snowking]

JMA

Still cold but could do better (still very good in the shorter term)

Fortunately even the GEM has been verifying better than the JMA of late

SK

[Wilxy]

OH MY LIFE!!!!!!!

Cross model agreement ??????????

1947 , 1962/3 , 1979 , 1983 , 1987 , 1990/91 , 2009/10 Dec 2010 , 2013???

Don't get carried away, YET!

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Latest from Matt Hugo

Matthew Hugoâ€@MattHugo81

Haha! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif … Anyone else's brain about to explode or is it just me. I can't remember such a period of volatility in the models

[Stu_London]

you would want to see tomorrow morning's suite show some consistency and the ensembles settle down a little before calling this with certainty.

FI back to down to about +100 today in my opinion

[UV-RAY]

From a purely selfish point of view those of us in the North and West look like missing out on the snow fun this weekend.

[TAFKAP]

Would love to hear some expert analysis from Ian Brown this evening. Any thoughts on the ECM 12z output Ian?

[MR EXTREMES]

Matt Hugo reins us in on Twitter with a note if caution:

@MattHugo81: The bigger picture (GFS ENS) paint a much milder scenario! http://t.co/eW1tkQu5 | 2 cold model runs doesn't automatically mean cold weather.

talk about burst everyones bubble no dissrespect to his forecasting skills lol

[snowice]

Lol! I'm getting worried about you, you're obsessed with that Chinese model!

That ECM 168hrs has got me all light headed I need to go and lie down!

what about the shortwaves Nick? only joking

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013010812/ECH1-216.GIF?08-0

Next wave arriving at 216 - expect a big shortwave in the SW approaches at 240 delivering big snow event for the UK

S

[Tamara]

Assuming that the Azores High is correctly modelled the way that the operationals all suggest tonight, then the chances of a cold spell are very much increased and extended. We get the southwards disruption of the lower heights to the north and pressure then rises above it to the north over Iceland and Greenland.

[MR EXTREMES]

216 erm brrrrr

[Cheshire Freeze]

Matt Hugo reins us in on Twitter with a note if caution:

@MattHugo81: The bigger picture (GFS ENS) paint a much milder scenario! http://t.co/eW1tkQu5 | 2 cold model runs doesn't automatically mean cold weather.

That's exactly why I was urging caution earlier RE GFS ensembles. A good 18z and better ensemble suite would go some way to settling my nerves!

[phil nw.]

Talk about backtracks by the ECM!

Stunning, absolutely truly sensational, jaw dropping, unbelievable 168hrs output! Can I squeeze any more superlatives in!

Yes it was strange those previous 2 ECM runs Nick-when the Ens mean Hts remained solid for a cold outlook as have the GEF`S for the last few days.

I must admit though these runs today have stunned me wrt the stronger and earlier cold signal. All runs coming together for once with the pattern for the first 4-5 days

Superb stuff !

Edited January 8, 2013 by phil n.warks.

[Stu_London]

Sorry but that's rubbish.

http://www.meteociel...M0-144.GIF?08-0

Those are for Monday

Bit more marginal in the west and south west through the weekend

[Stuie]

If this all goes Pete Tong this time, what are the mod`s going to do with all their spare time?

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Matthew Hugoâ€@MattHugo81

The 12z ECM model has pressure between 30 to 35mb higher than the 00z run to the NW of the UK. AKA complete lack of consistency. Still...

[Continental Climate]

I think i may trudge up to the best cathedral on planet earth and have a little pray to the weather gods tonite http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif!!

[MR EXTREMES]

http://www.meteociel...H1-216.GIF?08-0

Next wave arriving at 216 - expect a big shortwave in the SW approaches at 240 delivering big snow event for the UK

S

and look at all the height over greenland epic truely epic infact 09/10 was epic but snowfall amounts could be exceeding 09/10

[SandraD77]

Can't help but urge caution in terms of expectation! It seems to me that every few runs ppl are going from utter despair to unapologetic jubilance. Cold would very much need to become firmly entrenched before sustained or regular snow events could be considered. I tend to follow Simon Keeling as he seems to be fairly spot on and presents well backed up and unbiased forecasts. At present he's opting for a brief cold incursion over the weekend and then a trend to (and I stress) cooler period with interludes of cold and mild till mid Feb! Now before members jump down my throat about not being able to reliably predict past 72hrs out, I actually agree, but Mr Keeling watches trends and he's been pretty much spot on this winter (as was he last winter).

BTW I too badly would love snow and prolonged cold but I'm a realist and rather than go into a deep depression oe becoming elated with every model run, I weigh up potential based on output and expert analysis!

[TwisterGirl81]

From a purely selfish point of view those of us in the North and West look like missing out on the snow fun this weekend.

Oh well you get enough...now it's our turn lol

[TEITS]

you would want to see tomorrow morning's suite show some consistency and the ensembles settle down a little before calling this with certainty.

FI back to down to about +100 today in my opinion

I would put FI slightly later because even the ensembles agree on the initial thrust of cold from the E as the mean drops to -9C. The next stage of uncertainty for me is on Monday and whether the 12Z ECM is right with the LP sinking SE as the 06Z suggested.

[jimbo36]

I feel there will be some disappointed and slightly peturbed horses by tomorrow. These current models won't verify due to UNIB PVA not coming on board. This weekend will be cool and drizzly before the Atlantic rushes back in on Monday.

[cold snap]

Just want to say well done net weather for making this site the best on the web

Epic viewing

[Robbie Garrett]

Checklist, go...

ECMWF.... GO!

GFS...... GO!

UKMO.... GO!

Would be an utter Tuttake for the models to backtrack on this....

CFS.................. GO!! it's outlook is stunning...