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Netweather Winter Forecast


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Ok so this is the first post I have ever written on netweather.

I discovered all of the different weather websites last year, after I became a little fixated about the possiblility of bad weather. I love cold weather but hate snow (please don't hate me smile.png!!).

I have found myself become a little obsessed again this year.

I am comparing all weather possibilites to how bad it was in December 2010 in Newcastle - I hated it!!!

I do find all of these posts interesting and admit I don't know how to read the weather charts but think that I will make it my new hobbie from January onwards - and then maybe next year I will be in a better position to get more involved with these conversations smile.png

I have watched Stewarts forecast and please correct me if I am wrong - I am getting the impression that December is going to be colder than last year and may be slightly colder than average but as far as prolonged cold and major snow events e.t.c that is forecast as happening in the new year more so in January?

Welcome, Nicola...Any chance you could pop your location into your profile, please?good.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Well done GP for a well reasoned and explained winter forecast,and all done while battling man-flu

by the looks of it!

May all your oscillations be negative..biggrin.png

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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

Great forecast GP, well explained and without doubt the best forecaster on the web. I like the way that even though if the forecast does not go according to plan we can look back and see what factors changed to effect the forecast.

Looking forward to winter plenty of late nights model watching, will drive my wife crazysmiliz39.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Pontardawe, Neath-Port Talbot 78m asl
  • Location: Pontardawe, Neath-Port Talbot 78m asl

thanks for all the hard work GP and everyone else at net weather....a fine piece of work....and well if it works out half as accurate as the previous few years forcasts I'll be just a little excited...good luck

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington

Good forecast GP must say this gives me renewed confidence after the model let down of the last couple of days. I especially like your 80% confidence rating for a cold december and high confidence for January and when you said that you wouldnt be surprised that if somewhere in Europe is 4c below average in december or Jan (that somewhere could be the UK) WELL DONE!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

Top stuff GP - a great blend of technical and easy to understand stuff.

Interesting to note u use the CFS as one of the tools, whereas Meto do not.

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Posted
  • Location: Dead Centre of the Vale of Clwyd
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Sancerre.
  • Location: Dead Centre of the Vale of Clwyd

Thanks Stewart, really appreciate the effort you put into these forecasts, acknowledging the fact that you are putting a lot on the line in doing this. Another point - either I am understanding more of what you are saying (I really do try!) or you are getting better at explaining, but I get everything in the forecast. Damned fine communication for a difficult subject. Well done you - again.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

As usual excellent work Stewart and Netweather! Definately has a look of 2009/10 about it particularly for December and January. The only slight gripe I have with it is the picture quality particularly with the in depth version. It's a little wobbly and blurd. Apart from that excellent and very well explained!

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

Really detailed but easy to understand forecast GP. I particularly liked the clear explanations of the factors you are taking into consideration, whilst discussing the potential outcomes this winter.

Well done to the Netweather team - it will be interesting to see how it all pans out!

Edited by Chris K
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Posted
  • Location: Hindolveston North Norfolk 68m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Warm summers Cold Frosty winters
  • Location: Hindolveston North Norfolk 68m asl

Thanks Stewart...very informative...great presentation..an interesting winter ahead plenty to keep us watching

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

GP - super stuff. You've really spoilt us with this presentation, many thanks

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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

I have looked through the slide show forecast and i enjoyed every frame, excellent presentation! Thankyou!

Must say that the amount of information presented is incredible in all your posts and forecasts Stewart(GP), so technical yet so well explained. I look foward to the video forecast!

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Thanks Ian, very informative and has helped me a lot to boost my understanding.

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Posted
  • Location: Gloucestershire [prev. Bucks and Devon]
  • Weather Preferences: Snow deprived so anything white.
  • Location: Gloucestershire [prev. Bucks and Devon]

never showed my appreciation earlier when i watched it. Enjoyed that.

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Very well explained forecast Stewart (and its free!) Hope your forecast comes to fruition not just as you predict cold but getting it 'spot on' would surely dent the reputations of those 'professionals' that charge for their mid/long range forecasts.

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Posted
  • Location: Ashford, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Ashford, Kent

The Parable of the Model Thread

In the time of Cameron, in the land of Netweather there was a thread where prophets and soothsayers gathered with the naysayers to foresee the future of the winter.

In this time of withered sun and neutral ENSO anticipation of a colder than average winter had been for-seen by the one they called Glacier Point, a new messiah, King of the Nerds!

I his wisdom he had prophesized a cooler time , a time of frost and of snow, a time where peace may reign in the land of Netweather and all would be still and quiet and frozen.

And LO! It came to pass that the mechanical mind of the GFS did hint at a period when the month of November would roll into December that the mythical northern blocking would occur! There was great excitement and happiness from the masses and much debate on the exact nature of the promised cold spell. Lines were drawn on charts, and minds great and small bent their will onto the task of foresight into the future weather. As time rolled on towards the fabled time the GFS began it’s backtrack, yes cold would come but it looked feeble and weak and there was much wailing and gnashing of teeth!

"Oh great Glacier Point!" they cried

"Why hast thou forsaken us?"

There came a deep rumbling from the depths of Netweather, a rumbling which became a roar! The ground split asunder the masses and the nerds fled for they were very afraid!

From the bowels of Netweather there came a great light, a light bright and clean like freshly fallen snow! And there came from the light a voice such as that of the tinkling of slowly melting icicles dripping into a puddle or something.

" I am Paul! LORD of Netweather!!! And I give unto you my winter forecast! Oh you of little faith! Glacier Point has shown you the light and yet you did not believe! Now hear him speak and let none be afraid for it is news of great JOY!"

There then appeared from the light a screen and on this screen appeared Glacier Point in all his glory.

" I am Glacier Point! And I bring you great news! The coming season will indeed be cold!"

The nerds rejoiced and resumed their squabbling …

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Posted
  • Location: Dunstable 446ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: cold with frost & snow in winter; hot and dry in summer
  • Location: Dunstable 446ft ASL

Just watched the video through. Great job with this. Very easy to follow and understand. Not drowned in detail just key headlines which makes it easy for a novice like me to follow the key messages. Lets hope the NAO in Feb doesn't get too far west although we may need a relief from the cold by then if severest case scenario pans out !

Cheers

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