Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion

[SunnySouthCoast]

Funnily enough, here in Havant we seem to get more snow than Portsmouth does... seems to be just that bit further inland and away from the dreaded Channel!

SM

Yes on Portsea Island we are surrounded by the sea & get the UHI effect as well. Go up to Horndean/Clanfield & they get even more than Havant, then past Butser Hill towards Petersfield it's like a different country!

[Dean E]

Yes on Portsea Island we are surrounded by the sea & get the UHI effect as well. Go up to Horndean/Clanfield & they get even more than Havant, then past Butser Hill towards Petersfield it's like a different country!

Yes! Remember that all to well from last year, actually 3 events panned out the same

Portsmouth: No Snow

Havant: Dusting

Horndean: Light covering

Petersfield: Total whiteout...

2010 was oh so very different. I think this year may top that...

SM

[Mark Neal.]

.

Hey Gtltw, yep there is a record amount of warnings and alerts spanning the country although the south west looks the worst.

http://www.environme...oods/31618.aspx

I see tonight there is still that band giving it some over the south west and Wales which just must be total misery to most.

I am the iPhone so find it hard to check back but it wouldn't surprise me if the kennet is on alert now which is notable giving the way the river is managed.

I drove past Oxford today and looking at the state of the river the flooded fields west only reminds me when we went on severe warning during 2007 and I and friends were evacuated when I lived there... We really need this high to get a wiggle on .. But the potential of freezing temps is worrying and not helpful. At least with snow you can see the extent of problems. If that makes sense?

Was thinking the same thing while on way to work today, had the looks of july 2007 again. Just posted something similar in London & SE thread.

[AWD]

Bad day in the MOD thread.. Many a toy being thrown out many a pram.

And to think, it's not even winter yet! :p

Edited November 27, 2012 by AWD

[Bristawl Si]

Bad day in the MOD throws. Many a toy being thrown out many a pram.

And to think, it's not even winter yet! :p

True AWD - but why have the models suddenly flipped? It's not as though it was 'anyone' jumping on the cold train these last couple of weeks.

GP and others (the respected ones on NW) were quite bullish about a decent cold spell (not a snap) for next couple of weeks - they've been confident for a couple of weeks now - it just goes to show it's still as difficult as ever to forecast more than a week ahead.

[AWD]

True AWD - but why have the models suddenly flipped? It's not as though it was 'anyone' jumping on the cold train these last couple of weeks.

GP and others (the respected ones on NW) were quite bullish about a decent cold spell (not a snap) for next couple of weeks - they've been confident for a couple of weeks now - it just goes to show it's still as difficult as ever to forecast more than a week ahead.

I don't know BB, that's something your going to have to ask them. I'm just glad it's so early in the season & not at the end, we have time & more chances to get it right yet.

My guess is the unusual & differing Stratospheric & tropospheric conditions are toying with model data. But your better off asking someone who knows what they are talking about.

Still, a week or so of cold conditions with a few frosts ain't that bad. Should make for a nice, chilly & crisp outdoors weekend.

I agree with the difficulty in forecasting beyond a week. Whether the outlook beyond a week is mild or cold, I take it as FI. Which is why I'm not going as far as some in the MOD thread & writing weeks off. There are some very emotional & reactive people in there, I thought I was bad, but I think there are worse in there! lol.

Edited November 27, 2012 by AWD

[Gibby]

A rather cold and damp morning currently at 5.8C

http://www.norton-ra...co.uk/page8.htm

[Nights King]

I'm a little confused.. Don't have much time to really look until this evening but is it just the initial cold spell that has been downgraded or is it all up the spout?

Meto forecast still indicates a brief breakdown of cold followed by renewed cold later on?

[AWD]

I'm a little confused.. Don't have much time to really look until this evening but is it just the initial cold spell that has been downgraded or is it all up the spout?

Meto forecast still indicates a brief breakdown of cold followed by renewed cold later on?

I don't think anyone has a clue right now, but there are currently some really good posts in the MOD thread so get in there before lunacy takes over again.

Looking dry & cold after today for the rest of the week & weekend. That's all I will say for now.

[Frosty_wsm]

I'm a little confused.. Don't have much time to really look until this evening but is it just the initial cold spell that has been downgraded or is it all up the spout?

Meto forecast still indicates a brief breakdown of cold followed by renewed cold later on?

models chopping and changing all the time but plenty of talk of possible slider lp's, trouble with them is the south west is usually wet while the further north and east you are in the uk the better chance of snow, the further south and west those lp's are on their track the better if any slider scenarios happen that is.

[124alex]

models chopping and changing all the time but plenty of talk of possible slider lp's, trouble with them is the south west is usually wet while the further north and east you are in the uk the better chance of snow, the further south and west those lp's are on their track the better if any slider scenarios happen that is.

so we wouldnt get anything out of it?

[Frosty_wsm]

so we wouldnt get anything out of it?

never say never as they say, were not in the picture at the moment for snow, more Birmingham northwards ish but as Steve m said in the mod thread, there's a define shift SW in the pattern and the positioning of lp systems, the more the pattern shifts SW the better for us.

[AWD]

Who wants to demolish the M4?

It's creeping into the MOD thread.

[gottolovethisweather]

Who wants to demolish the M4?

It's creeping into the MOD thread.

I have a sneaky feeling, you'll be hearing a lot more about this M4 business as the confidence builds on channel lows etc.

Reading between the lines, even GPs winter forecast is swinging towards such a likelihood at times, mostly during January and February.

[AWD]

I have a sneaky feeling, you'll be hearing a lot more about this M4 business as the confidence builds on channel lows etc.

Reading between the lines, even GPs winter forecast is swinging towards such a likelihood at times, mostly during January and February.

Hopefully for very positive & snowy reasons. As has been said in the MOD thread, its amazing how a motorway has been a regular defining line between snow & rain over the past couple of decades. (With exceptions of course).

[gottolovethisweather]

Hopefully for very positive & snowy reasons. As has been said in the MOD thread, its amazing how a motorway has been a regular defining line between snow & rain over the past couple of decades. (With exceptions of course).

Yes indeed and Newbury often falls on the boundary, not that I worry too much about it as the downs to my West or Northwest will get their share of lying snow. Some parts are nearly 900 feet above sea level. I am down in a valley, albeit, thankfully away from the rivers etc.

[Nights King]

Yes indeed and Newbury often falls on the boundary, not that I worry too much about it as the downs to my West or Northwest will get their share of lying snow. Some parts are nearly 900 feet above sea level. I am down in a valley, albeit, thankfully away from the rivers etc.

Not even my height can save me from that evil M4 corridor! Like you said though just got to hope the south coast is the new 'M4 corridor!'

[SunnySouthCoast]

Yes! Remember that all to well from last year, actually 3 events panned out the same

Portsmouth: No Snow

Havant: Dusting

Horndean: Light covering

Petersfield: Total whiteout...

2010 was oh so very different. I think this year may top that...

SM

Yep, last winter we had no snow here at all, infact the whole winter was mild apart from a 10 day period in February.

2010 was exceptional, we had the most snow in Portsmouth since 1982! I admire your optimism, but I don't think we will see a repeat of 2010 any time in the near future & I know the Net Weather long range winter forecast has gone for a colder than average winter, but to be fair the guy who made the forecast was pretty sure we were heading into the freezer at the end of this week, so I take that winter forecast with a very large pinch of salt

[124alex]

Can someone explain briefly what the scenarios are for this week, i go into the model thread and i am lost! Is the UK going to see snow or just cold frosty weather? Is the sw likely to see any snow, if any?

[AWD]

Can someone explain briefly what the scenarios are for this week, i go into the model thread and i am lost! Is the UK going to see snow or just cold frosty weather? Is the sw likely to see any snow, if any?

At this stage; How long is a piece of string.

Too far out regarding snow potential. As things currently stand its further NE that are being modelled snow, but its likely to change a lot this week both on location a d whether it will actually happen or not.

For now, cold & dry for the south for the rest of the week looks the best bet.

[124alex]

At this stage; How long is a piece of string.

Too far out regarding snow potential. As things currently stand its further NE that are being modelled snow, but its likely to change a lot this week both on location a d whether it will actually happen or not.

For now, cold & dry for the south for the rest of the week looks the best bet.

Depends how long you cut it and thanks for very much i go in there and there all saying different things for the weekend

[gottolovethisweather]

Depends how long you cut it and thanks for very much i go in there and there all saying different things for the weekend

That is most probably because FI begins at around that time, alex.

Your best choice of guidance regrading the nearer term will be the MetO Fax charts and whilst doing so, check your local preipitation forecasts against where the 528 DAM line is projected to be, with regard to potential for snowfall. Currently, I don't see much likelihood of any significant wintriness, if any, for your region up until at least Saturday 1st December. Things can change however, sometimes at very short notice.

Don't be afraid to PM certain members if you are unsure of anything.

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited November 27, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Mesoscale]

im about 20m ASL so thats not good for me haha!

Yep, last winter we had no snow here at all, infact the whole winter was mild apart from a 10 day period in February.2010 was exceptional, we had the most snow in Portsmouth since 1982! I admire your optimism, but I don't think we will see a repeat of 2010 any time in the near future & I know the Net Weather long range winter forecast has gone for a colder than average winter, but to be fair the guy who made the forecast was pretty sure we were heading into the freezer at the end of this week, so I take that winter forecast with a very large pinch of salt

we had snow feb this year by the docks. Edited November 27, 2012 by Mesoscale

[SunnySouthCoast]

im about 20m ASL so thats not good for me haha!we had snow feb this year by the docks.

I'm only about 1m asl! Did your snow In February settle? Areas just inland from Portsmouth had a short lived dusting, but here we got just rain

[jethro]

Who wants to demolish the M4?

It's creeping into the MOD thread.

Me.

Can someone explain briefly what the scenarios are for this week, i go into the model thread and i am lost! Is the UK going to see snow or just cold frosty weather? Is the sw likely to see any snow, if any?

If you put your location into your avatar, it would help people give you a more definitive answer to your question; Somerset's a big county with widely varying weather.

I'm only about 1m asl! Did your snow In February settle? Areas just inland from Portsmouth had a short lived dusting, but here we got just rain

You may be right about your height but it's worth checking here: http://www.streetmap.co.uk/ Just enter your postcode.

Height above sea level is worked out from Newlyn in Cornwall, not the local coastline.