Model Output Discussion - 18z - 25th Nov onward

[nick sussex]

Having looked at the ECM ensemble mean for 96hrs I would be shocked if the UKMO modified their raw output for that time, the ECM mean is better than the operational run.

[Isolated Frost]

I bet everyone a sportsman £1 that the UKMO dont modify the output to ECM

S

You can see the shortwave already at 72, that wasn't there at 96 for yesterday's 12z Steve-- the long-term effect is a removal of early cold.. I'm expecting a major backtrack towards the GFS and ECM as the UKMO-GM has seen this already-

[Matty M]

ECM Ensembles aren't that disastrous really.....

Very surprised if UKM modify at T120hrs as many ECM ENS members similar enough to it.

[karlos1983]

Not sure I can handle watching !!!🙈

[Tim Bland]

MattHugo on twitter highlighting that he expects the 96 and 120 to be modified from the UKMO after discussion- probably negatively

I bet my house the faxes copy the ukmo output. I will eat my hat the day they don't. I believe we are going to reach a compromise. The Atlantic will push in from the west / south West before the block builds back later in the week. Could be a decent dump before it turns to rain, then we are back to wintry showers and hunting the next big cold plunge

[Matty M]

You can look run by run here if you dare!

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/getchart/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!132!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2012112612!!chart.gif

[chionomaniac]

I think we will have a new thread for this evenings output.

Please finish off in here whilst I arrange a new thread.

Edited November 26, 2012 by chionomaniac

[PubliusEnigma]

Can someone show me a chart where the 528 dam line or lower is lying across the country before the

first front from the west advances over the weekend. Without this I'm far from convinced of a much

mentioned snow event pushing in from the west or south west..

[SMU]

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

ECM Control & OP possible outliers or better resolved than the ensembles-

S

[Isolated Frost]

Here is yesterday's 120 - Fax

and then the ECM 96 (corresponding time)

The trough on the ECM mean today is further ne, and the shortwave that affected it previously is affecting W Norway-- on the UKM-GM 120 yesterday- the trough was placed o/ n poland- and there was no shortwave previous to t96- so no complications down the line-

I think the ECM ENS will dictate the UKMO-GM regardless- as Matt pretty much denounced the UKMO in the FAX output by highlighting it's relative lack of model support- I wouldn't mind being proven wrong by Steve et al, but the hints at 72 are strong enough-

[SMU]

Can someone show me a chart where the 528 dam line or lower is lying across the country before the

first front from the west advances over the weekend. Without this I'm far from convinced of a much

mentioned snow event pushing in from the west or south west..

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2012112612/J144-21.GIF?26-12

[Swave Snow]

Here is yesterday's 120 - Fax

and then the ECM 96 (corresponding time)

The trough on the ECM mean today is further ne, and the shortwave that affected it previously is affecting W Norway-- on the UKM-GM 120 yesterday- the trough was placed o/ n poland- and there was no shortwave previous to t96- so no complications down the line-

I think the ECM ENS will dictate the UKMO-GM regardless- as Matt pretty much denounced the UKMO in the FAX output by highlighting it's relative lack of model support- I wouldn't mind being proven wrong by Steve et al, but the hints at 72 are strong enough-

They are also Strong enough the other way. So it still wait for more models to chow what is happening. Did any body see the little low form over London Today??

[Bobby]

Even if the UKMO is right, there'd a few day cold snap, then if it went out beyond +144 it would very likely show the Atlantic moving in eventually and that's about the best case scenario. There isn't a single model or barely even a ensemble run that's not showing a breakdown.

NOGAPS looks like UKMO at 144, but 24 hours later the Atlantic moving in

NOGAPS:

UKMO:

Then NOGPAS +36 hours later

Hardly mild but no big freeze we're after. There's still potential for another cold snap later in the month, pehaps better, and winter hasn't even started so plenty of reasons to be positive.

Not popular maybe but that's how I'm calling it.

Edited November 26, 2012 by Barb-

[bradymk]

A decent set of ECM Ensembles and the mean is not bad at all, especially for t96 and also right at the end where the ensemble mean also hints at heights rising once again to the W/NW.

Matthew

[chionomaniac]

Closing now, new thread here