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Paul

Model Output Discussion - 18z - 25th Nov onward

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The 6z is an improvement because of the fact the block holds for longer and rebuffs the first SW , it is a big Improvement up to +120 and that has got to be nearing FI in this situation . (Well it is FI as we have other Models showing a different solution . Interesting week coming up on the Models thats for sure.

so many conflicting post its hard to trawl through, interesting times ahead there's no doubt about that, but what will be the outcome.

cheers fromey

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At work so can't post much.

But if one looks critically at the jet stream charts for the critical period around the southern tip of Greenland, it becomes very obvious where the difficulty in modeling occurs. It very much looks like the GFS does not know where to put that weak jet. Re blocking will be the theme here!

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GFS sticking by it's guns and lending the ECM, GEM etc good support in bringing the energy eastwards over the Atlantic, the UKMO has support from the NOGAPS - not something i'd like the brag about!

Those saying that the 6z is an improvement are incorrect and misleading to others trying to learn here, The whole pattern has flattened out with a full on Atlantic attack.

The fun and games continue another day!

We are at least guaranteed a wintry mix around eastern and northern coasts for Friday through to maybe Sunday, so not all lost. Becoming less cold/milder as we move into the new week next

week. UKMO all on its own now. WIll it fall into line with the others come 3.30 today. ? :o

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Dont think ive ever seen a Chart look so messy as this at T144 on the GFS, absolutely hopless to get an idea of what may happen afterwards or before, too many shortwaves that simply cant come off? Surely?

Rtavn1441.png

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gfs still clueless looking at my location the 06z has pressure of 1022mb at T144, compared to 1030 on the 00z, i also think the handling of the energy is very different on this run compared to the 00z. So no consistence yet.

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GFS sticking by it's guns and lending the ECM, GEM, CFS etc good support in bringing the energy eastwards over the Atlantic, the UKMO has support from the NOGAPS - not something i'd like the brag about!

Those saying that the 6z is an improvement are incorrect and misleading to others trying to learn here, at face value the whole pattern has flattened out with a full on Atlantic attack.

The fun and games continue another day!

I am sorry i totally disagree. If you were comparing the 6z to the 0z it is 100% leaning towards the UKM solution, it ramped up the low around Newfoundland leading to more amplification. It was only the splitting of the energy post 120hrs that slowly got through the block.

The 6z HAS leaned back from the 0z and only take very minor changes on the 6z to complete it's movement towards a UKM solution.

EDIT: Looking past around 96-120hrs is pointless at this point in proceedings.

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GFS sticking by it's guns and lending the ECM, GEM, CFS etc good support in bringing the energy eastwards over the Atlantic, the UKMO has support from the NOGAPS - not something i'd like the brag about!

Those saying that the 6z is an improvement are incorrect and misleading to others trying to learn here, at face value the whole pattern has flattened out with a full on Atlantic attack.

The fun and games continue another day!

Your post is misleading. The 06z is an definate inprovement if you want cold compared to 0z. At the moment where is FI?? The low pressure around the southern tip of greenland is acting differently. That is what it is showing at face value, in the so called reliable.

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GFS sticking by it's guns and lending the ECM, GEM, CFS etc good support in bringing the energy eastwards over the Atlantic, the UKMO has support from the NOGAPS - not something i'd like the brag about!

Those saying that the 6z is an improvement are incorrect and misleading to others trying to learn here, at face value the whole pattern has flattened out with a full on Atlantic attack.

The fun and games continue another day!

Not sure u agree with that, can't post charts, have a look at the 06z it's a lot more amplified than the oz , easy for you to see by a country mile , at 180hrs compare the difference, the low to our north is much further south and a lot weaker.

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Until the next one... It's simply not true. There is a signal in the vast volumes of data to indicate that some energy may seep through what is not a particularly strong block. The difference between the block holding and breaking is very small, but the results after that have big differences.

To rephrase your post above, on the occasions when the UKMO was right, does this mean that the ECM and GFS were the biggest c*ck ups in history? Hyperbole always seems to increase exponentially during times such as these!

The point I was making is that we've had enough consistency for colder weather across the UK that the height anomaly charts have indicated this and the MO have even upgraded their thoughts on cold in their longer range outputs. If we see everything collapse, it's not exactly going to be a minor c*ck up is it?

I suspect the lack of data across Greenland is causing all sorts of problems with the outputs, obviously if that energy heads East instead of North the block collapses and it has a knock on effect for the rest of the run. The UKMO has remained solid so I think we can take some comfort in that, it's usually the UKMO showing milder air breaking through whilst ECM and GFS remain solid on cold, only to see a backtrack from the ECM and GFS. Hopefully that'll be the case this time.

Until then though, things are on a very thin, pointed knife edge.

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A question for JH,with the 500mb charts showing good blocking and the ecm/gfs not in the same place,do you think they will both u turn to the ukmo which shows the blocking more favourable like the 500mb charts?.Regards

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GFS sticking by it's guns and lending the ECM, GEM, CFS etc good support in bringing the energy eastwards over the Atlantic, the UKMO has support from the NOGAPS - not something i'd like to brag about!

Those saying that the 6z is an improvement are incorrect and misleading to others trying to learn here, at face value the whole pattern has flattened out with a full on Atlantic attack.

The fun and games continue another day!

If you look at all the Models and the Ensembles , there is huge difference in the timing of the Atlantic coming through , the GEM mean for example still as the block there at +150 . My theory is , the longer the block holds on , the more WAA goes in to Greenland and the Block may have a chance to stable. I believe this is why the UKMO , NO Gaps and various ensemble members still do not want to let go of the Colder solution .

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Jesus christ that GFS chart is absolutely disgusting if you're looking for a clean evolution to cold, why do these pesky shortwaves always ruin it? Arctic high and Greenie ridge and we still can't pull in the proper cold, only in the uk could we have perfect sypnotics and miss out. On the flip side being positive, the UKMO has stuck to its guns and has been extremely solid in its output, still it would take a brave man to back it over the ECM/GFS at this time range. Such messy charts though, its a real shame to see but I'm still positive we'll get a good outcome, possibly from a reload but again that's out of a reliable time frame. Still let's pray the UKMO have got this right.

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At work so can't post much.

But if one looks critically at the jet stream charts for the critical period around the southern tip of Greenland, it becomes very obvious where the difficulty in modeling occurs. It very much looks like the GFS does not know where to put that weak jet. Re blocking will be the theme here!

That sounds like your siding with the ukmo ed? The 06z is a much improvement on the 0z , block holds longer this wkend, then the vortex segment/low over the Atlantic looks much weaker and further south.

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Even being somewhat new to looking at the charts, my general common sense tell me why focus on T120 onwards when the models are not showing any sort of consistency even in the earlier time frame. Other than it seems UKMO.

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Good Grief.. I know the GFS is supposedly renowned for being the most successful at picking up early trends. BUT if this is right

it smacks in the face of the seasoned experts around who have strongly touted a blocked and colder outlook as we

move into the new month. This is as zonal as it gets? What is causing this change to come about. OR is this outlook completely

wrong ?

Rtavn2521.png

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Personally i just think all the models are underestimating the block if it were that convinced of breaking the block then why do the models other than the UKMO go round in circles?

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GFS sticking by it's guns and lending the ECM, GEM, CFS etc good support in bringing the energy eastwards over the Atlantic, the UKMO has support from the NOGAPS - not something i'd like to brag about!

Those saying that the 6z is an improvement are incorrect and misleading to others trying to learn here, at face value the whole pattern has flattened out with a full on Atlantic attack.

The fun and games continue another day!

It is an improvement, the arrival of the Atlantic has been delayed,pressure over the Arctic is higher and pressure over Europe is lower.Im sorry but the pattern is far better at 96 hours on the 06z than it is on the 00z.

yes, the pattern does flatten eventually, but I firmly believe that 96 hours is FI in this setup.

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so many conflicting post its hard to trawl through, interesting times ahead there's no doubt about that, but what will be the outcome.

cheers fromey

Well only the weather gods know that , But I do not believe the 6z GFS or the 00z ECM have got this nailed at all to be honest. I think were going to see a lot of changes over the next couple of days , but I think the Block will hold on for longer and even if a Low pressure does get through , I think we will see the Azores extending Northwards behind .

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Good Grief.. I know the GFS is supposedly renowned for being the most successful at picking up early trends. BUT if this is right

it smacks in the face of the seasoned experts around who have strongly touted a blocked and colder outlook as we

move into the new month. This is as zonal as it gets? What is causing this change to come about. OR is this outlook completely

wrong ?

Rtavn2521.png

DO NOT BE TOOK IN BY THE DEFAULT GFS FI

Always has a zonal outlook, goes against every single teleconnection out there, high to our south east ??? Come on get reall gfs, no support long term whatsoever ever . Look forward to the 12z

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I am sorry i totally disagree. If you were comparing the 6z to the 0z it is 100% leaning towards the UKM solution, it ramped up the low around Newfoundland leading to more amplification. It was only the splitting of the energy post 120hrs that slowly got through the block.

The 6z HAS leaned back from the 0z and only take very minor changes on the 6z to complete it's movement towards a UKM solution.

EDIT: Looking past around 96-120hrs is pointless at this point in proceedings.

As I said earlier all of your posts are conflicting big time and making it impossible for an amateur to read/view/ take on runs and come to a reasonable solution.

Time for me to take a break I think and come back tomorrow, hopefully there will be some agreement and I'm not just talking about the models.

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The 06z goes the same way as the 0z, a strongly positive NAO developing.

I don't understand why you wish for that sort of rubbish and I don't think the outlook will be decided by the gfs 06z op run either, there is still plenty of other evidence in favour of a cold blocked spell which you always appear to ignore.

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Is the delay in GP's winter forecast due to doubts how this will pan out?

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Just wondering if anyone can provide me with a link to the 00z as i was not about early to view be interesting to compare both between 00z & 06z between +90 & +150?

Thanks in advance smile.png

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Personally i just think all the models are underestimating the block if it were that convinced of breaking the block then why do the models other than the UKMO go round in circles?

Either the UKMO hasn't picked up the new signal yet, OR it's sticking with the cold because that's whats going to happen. We wont know until next week I suppose

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I'm sorry, I must be viewing a totally different 6z to some of you - ignoring timings etc did the Atlantic break through or not on this run?

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