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Model Output Discussion - 18z - 25th Nov onward


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: St. Helens
  • Location: St. Helens

There's still some days left in the models yet while we go through the cold spell. For the moment while we are going to experience blocking im not going to right it off before its happened.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

Well I am continuing with my support for the UKMO's version of events . It is not just the UKMO that would have to be wrong for an Atlantic based solution , All the background signals that have been showing for nearly a Month would have to be wrong as well, Negative AO , Nao do not bode well with a West to East flat pattern and all the guidance is suggesting these are heading well negative . Strat is now warming with even the possibility of a SSW . Even if the High does get to close to the UK , all I can see happening is it rebuilding behind as there is no strong P/V anywhere near Greenland. We are still 5/6 days away from when the Cold was showing anyway so Model's have time to switch back.

Eyes down for a hopefully bitter cold 6z.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Just read several pages of utter drivel, models discussed like a school boys crush, she love me, she loves me not. Synoptics evolve; they are not just born, stuck on to a page and then stay in stasis waiting for the day when they become real weather. These same conversations happen year after year but some people never learn. It’s simple really you can trust the models out to 72hrs most of the time however after that every passing day should be viewed with increasing amounts of scepticism. What the models show this morning is that the way forwards post 72hrs is far from settled and a number of people would be well advised to hold back on the, I told you so statements for the time being

Well I have trust in what the ukmo is showing, as it's the only model which has not veered all over the place in the last few days, it was nice to see the ecm backtrack somewhat from the 12z last night. Turning wintry by the weekend is still the favourite, how long will it last is another matter, my hunch is a reload or two as we go further into december.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

For all those panicking this morning take a look at the 6 - 10 cpc product today - anything remotely zonal there? Nuff said.

610day.03.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Epping, Essex
  • Location: Epping, Essex

Well according to gibby's summary above - The Atlantic looks increasingly likely to dominate with any cold and any significant wintry weather looking unlikely

Rather conflicts with some posts in here I have to say. As an amature and learning, confused is an understatement

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Posted
  • Location: Scottish Borders (SE) 150m/492ft
  • Weather Preferences: Lightning, Snow
  • Location: Scottish Borders (SE) 150m/492ft

And just as I posted on page 9 - http://forum.netweat...60#entry2416273 the ECM has done this time and time again - and exactly as I posted it has done before the ECM suddenly comes back on board and EXACTLY as I posted has happened before the GFS which everyone was hoping was right - backtracked to the ECM output - which then decided to backtrack to the UKMO output. Seriously people - check the archives - this situation is far from new - and everytime it happens people act surprised like it hasn't happened before - it has - and it will continue to happen in the future. *sigh* I despair at some of the people on here.....

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes

Just a reminder, if you are getting a bit annoyed with someone's posts, we have the ignore function so you can stop them from appearing for more stress free model thread viewing smile.png

http://forum.netweat...ea=ignoredusers

Except they then appear in someones irritated reply to them - can we switch someone's reply to an unwanted poster off as well?

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

Well according to gibby's summary above - The Atlantic looks increasingly likely to dominate with any cold and any significant wintry weather looking unlikely

Rather conflicts with some posts in here I have to say. As an amature and learning, confused is an understatement

morning, i believe Gibby looks at what the models are showing now, and breaks it down to simple words for us to understand.

i may be wrong,but that's my take on it.

cheers

fromey

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

And still the Metoffice sticks to it's guns, there must be a really good reason for that?

I think we've still got time for the mother of all u-turns with the other models?

Everything is right for cold, so it'd be amazing bad luck to remain zonal, watch this space :-)

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Posted
  • Location: Epping, Essex
  • Location: Epping, Essex

morning, i believe Gibby looks at what the models are showing now, and breaks it down to simple words for us to understand.

i may be wrong,but that's my take on it.

cheers

fromey

I understand, but all members on here are following the same models are they not? So my confusion is Conflicting posts left right and centre.

Anyway here comes the 06z

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Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport

For all those panicking this morning take a look at the 6 - 10 cpc product today - anything remotely zonal there? Nuff said.

610day.03.gif

I am not 100% sure but I don't think these update over the weekend so the one you see is from Friday, you are better off using the ECM/GFS 500MB over the weekend.

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

I understand, but all members on here are following the same models are they not? So my confusion is Conflicting posts left right and centre.

Anyway here comes the 06z

That's what discussion is all about though. Gibby is showing a straight down the line assessment of what the models are showing at that point - a snapshot in time if you like. That's great and much appreciated but effectively that's working on the basis that what the models are showing is correct, which of course isn't always the case. What others do is perhaps try to read more in between the lines, compare current runs with trends from previous runs, knowledge of model bias, ensembles, other underlying indicators etc and it's at that point where opinions can diverge.

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

And just as I posted on page 9 - http://forum.netweat...60#entry2416273 the ECM has done this time and time again - and exactly as I posted it has done before the ECM suddenly comes back on board and EXACTLY as I posted has happened before the GFS which everyone was hoping was right - backtracked to the ECM output - which then decided to backtrack to the UKMO output. Seriously people - check the archives - this situation is far from new - and everytime it happens people act surprised like it hasn't happened before - it has - and it will continue to happen in the future. *sigh* I despair at some of the people on here.....

I distinctly remember this happening a lot during 09/10 winter, and the dec10 also, pick up a trend, then drop it in the medium range , only to pick it up again at t96 , always happens , and the ECM will lead the way with this then when it comes bk on board , the gfs picks up what the ECM said , happens all the time, it brings nerves and then joy when all is resolved.

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Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire

06z at T90 and that low near Greenland seems a little deeper and to the west of the tip of Greenland. Which was highlighted as an area to watch.

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Looking at the 500mb charts from NOAA shown by IF and the issue from ECMWF-GFS this morning. I am holding off making any predictions today as I want, as always, a couple of days data before deciding.

Yes the block in high latitudes is there but what is not there compared to their outputs 2-3 days ago is the pronounced ridge south of 60N giving a flow north of west into the UK. There is a tendency on all 3 over the past 24 hours to show a W'ly type of flow into the UK south of 60-65N. Nor is the previously pretty solid way in which all 3 dealt with the trough over and east of the UK helping to reinforce this pattern.

Like I've just said I am not giving a forecast just observing. The NAEFS for 00z is not yet available.

that's the problem with relying too much on mean charts far out, they can still change suddenly.

In fact, the trend since last Tue/Wed has been for a weaker ridge to our west. The ridge we are going to get later this week is much weaker and less expnasive than what the ensembles and the NOAA charts were showing during most of last week

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Posted
  • Location: Epping, Essex
  • Location: Epping, Essex

That's what discussion is all about though. Gibby is showing a straight down the line assessment of what the models are showing at that point - a snapshot in time if you like. That's great and much appreciated but effectively that's working on the basis that what the models are showing is correct, which of course isn't always the case. What others do is perhaps try to read more in between the lines, compare current runs with trends from previous runs, knowledge of model bias, ensembles, other underlying indicators etc and it's at that point where opinions can diverge.

Ok thanks.

I'm learning! from one set of models I still find it bizarre how one post can read 'Atlantic domination' and yet another 'cold still on the way'

I know it's discussion but for me that's extreme conflict and couldn't be more opposite

Let's make it clear before members jump on me, I am in no way shape or form dissing Gibby's posts- he is excellent.

All I am trying to establish is how his summary can reading 'Atlantic' and another senior member read 'cold and look east' when we are all looking at the same run

Edited by Dexter29
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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

Looks like its going to be a flop, i remember loads of times gone by when all looked excellent only to be let down, but hey thats the nature of the UK`s weather. I`m sure we will get a cold snap this winter.

The 6z GFS is moving towards the UKM which has being firm on its outlook.

It is for coldies, a 'good' run.

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Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset

Well according to gibby's summary above - The Atlantic looks increasingly likely to dominate with any cold and any significant wintry weather looking unlikely

Rather conflicts with some posts in here I have to say. As an amature and learning, confused is an understatement

I think Gibby only goes by what the model's are showing are a certain time and with only the UKMO not drunk at the moment.. The outlook will look a disaster! I don't see whats bad about the Atlantic knocking on the door as long it bring 1 foot of snow here

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Posted
  • Location: Eastry, Kent CT13 0HF
  • Location: Eastry, Kent CT13 0HF

looks like GFS is struggling as to know what to do with that LP, worryingly it is intensifying it and keeping it static currently. On the plus side we got a better easterly forming at +114.

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

So the 6z moves towards the UKM solution. No point really focusing beyond T108hrs where the critical synoptics develop.

Them being the Newfoundland Low and also it would be desirable to sort out the shortwaves over west Norway to enable cold to envelope the UK&IRE prior to any future attack. It would also enable high pressure to protect us from any Atlantic attack.

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