Model Output Discussion 25/11/2012 12Z onwards

[SnOwFeSt]

With such a huge split in the polar vortex, it's all interesting model watching over the next few days. People get far too hung up on each run it's crazy.

The overall pattern looks very promising and once the cold sets in, you don't need very low 850 temps to see decent snowfall down the line. After several days of -5 850 temps, the surface temps will be pretty frigid. any attempted attack from the west should see Some decent snow events for some (remember dec 2010).

The pattern looks great and I'll start paying attention to the details from Wednesday or Thursday onwards. This has the potential to be very special though.

[ITSY]

Oh my.

[bluearmy]

so is the higher res ECM right in the timeframe it was designed to excel in? I suspect not though a repeat of this in the morning will no doubt skew the output in this direction somewhat.

[Geordiesnow]

ECM 144 isnt to bad actually -

THe low gets into greenland & starts sending energy SE -

So initially the UK will warm up- however its not destroying the huge cold pool to the east-

I am slightly happier now-

lets see the 168

S

Oh don't worry people, just wait until 168 hours yet again to celebrate some substancial cold weather perhaps.

Can't get away from the reality Steve that the ECM is an AWFUL run but a plausible one if the low pressure overrides any Atlantic ridge, I won't give two hoots what the rest of the run shows, its a real kick in the teeth that chart is and if it did came off, it would really put a mockery of all this cold spell chasing because all we get is a chilly snap followed by milder air coming in again and very little snowfall(if any) to speak of.

Still, its only one run, and the chart will never look exactly like that at 0 hours but still a concern nonetheless though.

Although the early part of the run may look sorta like the UKMO with the Low pressure system in a better place, it still sends this into Scandinavia, so does the GFS so yet again, UKMO is on its own and whilst its consistent, one change towards the GFS/ECM, then it means little.

[cooling climate]

What is going on with the ECM (scratches head). The UKMO run tonight looks even more

solid in its output at t120 and t144. You can expect the lesser models to make big errors

at fairly short range but the ECM. Follow the UKMO and GFS 12z operational and bin the

rest.

[Snowy Easterlies]

if the ECM and the minor models are correct its time to call the GFS and UKMO cannon fodder

ECM T144 is such a typical chart for this part of the world, ridge toppling such a common synoptic

Edited November 25, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[The Eagle]

GEM 96 hrs

ECM 96 hrs

Hate to say it but this looks ominous at such a short range as 96 hrs.

[Swave Snow]

Remember the ensembles still need to be seen for the ECM and they were going up this morning. Hence why you cannot take them at face value in these rare setups. I have to show my card and say that as of today the change has started my favorite tool the satellite shows the cold air seeping down from the arctic as we speak.

[Gael_Force]

I wouldn't worry about it - seen it all before - just as GFS comes onboard with the desired outcome, the ECMWF throws a wobbly and cause panic. I take it you remember much the same played out in Nov/Dec '10 when it was proved the Euro WASN'T infallible.

[Mr Frost]

Yes, it looks like a bit of a battle between GFS/UKMO and the ECM/minor models.

Even I feel a bit deflated after that 120/144 ECM chart. Not to worry though, HOPEFULLY from a snow lover point of view the ECM is having a wobble in the mid frames.

Edited November 25, 2012 by Mr Frost

[BlueHedgehog074]

To be honest, it's just one run anyway, so even if it does go downhill, there's still a reasonable chance that ECMWF outlook won't come off. Just have to hope that model isn't going to start picking out a new trend, but at least there is always that chance of a reload anyway.

[nick sussex]

ECM 144 isnt to bad actually -

THe low gets into greenland & starts sending energy SE -

So initially the UK will warm up- however its not destroying the huge cold pool to the east-

I am slightly happier now-

lets see the 168

S

Lol! Wow in my time dealing with clients this is the best case of self-soothing I've seen!

Bless you Steve for trying to lift the spirits, hopefully the ECM has gone AWOL here but really it would be something to see the ECM so badly wrong at that timeframe.

[Frosty.]

At 72hrs it looked all so good, then went downhill as the failure for that Canadian low to develop and head up west into Greenland.Thats harpooned the festive spirit! I'm off to see what NOAA have to say, hopefully they've trashed the ECM!

I think the Ecm would look better with beer goggles on, i'm sure it will be the runt of the litter tonight with still plenty of good support for a freeze COLD SPELL lasting 10-12 days, maybe longer, not my words, the words of the wise john holmes. Edited November 25, 2012 by Frosty039

[Panayiotis]

Looks like people use the term outliar far too much as well lol, I don't really see an outliar out of all the perpetrations!

Let's not forget though in the winter of 2010/11 many times did we have agreement in the esembles of a return to mild only for them to be proven wrong time and time again! Also we saw so called 'cold outliars' prove to be trend setter's and in fact correct when they seemed to have little backing.

People seem to be looking for fine details and shortwaves over a week out, complete madness! .

What we know is the AO and NAO are expected to go quite a lot negative so that says one thing to me at this time of year, COLD and BLOCKING. So what we are seeing is a great start to winter, a couple of months ago I think we would all have given our left arms for charts like these.

Yes but the AO and NAO only reflect what the models show.

[xioni]

EC is poor already from 72-96h as it doesn't send enough energy southeastwards underneath the block. Even then it's so easy to go either way but this will be a 'warm' run esp for the UK, where it might even go mild.

Even the UKMO which looks great at 144h could still g wrong after this as the high is weak and enough energy could spill westwards (e.g. BOM).

It could all be a wobble and tomorrow EC could be much better again, but what I don't agree with various posters is that we shouldn't look at 'rogue' op runs but focus more on the ensemble and the 'large scale'.

At these time scales (<180h) and when small shortwaves can play a big role, op runs are equally important and can often pick up a trend first and the ensembles can be as fickle and change suddenly.

Anyway here's to EC being a random wobble tonight

[Ice BIast]

Lets just wait and see if there's a reload later in the run.

[Polar Maritime]

as promised a pdf for the next 2 weeks about the overall weather pattern

3-500mb patterns for going into December 2012.pdf

Thanks John, im shure now some can put there knifes away and get back on the sofa !

[January Snowstorm]

And it gets worse at 168hrs

Lol where to now??? The asylum me thinks

[Ian Brown]

Well for any of us who were model watching prior to 2009, this kind of thing happened virtually every time at the T120-T144 range.

ECM T144 not bad ? ? It's game over for cold going well forward from there.

[Adam lufc]

In my opinion this is just typical. The hardest place on earth to get anything decent. Extremely unfair and so distressing. Days of excitement dashed. A bold statement but in my opinion the very much minor models have randomly gone and got this spot on! The ecm is almost identical to them and even the ensembles have drastically changed to those outputs. Typical and even more so the east of us once again receives snow n cold.

[SMU]

have you given up on ukmo gfs 12z then?

Where does it say that?-

The ECM 144 is a long way away from the GFS & UKMO which are pretty similar- &

the ECM feels fast & very flat- its not to say it wont happen, but my money is still on the UKMO-

ECM 192 is total game over.- lets hope its a cannon fodder run!

S

[Ice BIast]

Developments to the west at T192

[Isolated Frost]

ECM goes COMPLETELY against the H5 anomalies and anything else wrt teleconnections- one of many solutions I'm sure- I wouldn't exactly pin hopes on the GFS either tbf- all eyes on the FAX as this spell gets into the short term..

Just watch the many solutions-- Tuesday will be the vital day for model watchers if we're talking about the UK pattern- the hemispherical pattern is set in stone... calm down folks- one run of many to come

[danm]

ECM at 168 and 192 is frankly terrible, no hiding from that. It has thrown a spanner in the works of what were excellent GFS and UKMO 12z's.

The ECM ensembles have been excellent in recent days, so as ever this run, while cannot be ignored, may be on its own.

[Barry12]

it's only one run, if it shows this again tomorrow i will be worried.