Model Output Discussion 25/11/2012 12Z onwards

[andymusic]

Joe B is still on track with this twitter piccy

Edited November 25, 2012 by andymusic

[Mark Neal.]

So winters over then?

By the way some people have reacted on here you would of thought so, it doesn't even start to next saturday (meteorologically speaking). One poor ECM run and a few small models show a horror show and its panic. Plenty of time to go this winter, and from what i have read the last few weeks we are entering a good time, strat looks in better state and background signals also good. There are too many kneejerk reactions i feel at times.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

In my opinion this is just typical. The hardest place on earth to get anything decent. Extremely unfair and so distressing. Days of excitement dashed. A bold statement but in my opinion the very much minor models have randomly gone and got this spot on! The ecm is almost identical to them and even the ensembles have drastically changed to those outputs. Typical and even more so the east of us once again receives snow n cold.

I really cannot believe this and others, every single day if you listen to the experienced ones they say do not get hung up on one run, an hour ago you was saying how amazing this cold was goin to be and this place was buzzin, are you guys honestly that emotionally fickle? The trend has been set in teleconnections and other drivers some time ago and that is for extensive northern blocking , models have wobbles, sometimes they underestimate the block , sometimes they pick up something for a few days, it happens every year , only for things to be resolved in the morning, if you take advise from ones that no what they are talking about then you will no to stop doin this ppl, how many wks ago did chio and gp and others like John say there was signs of a massive pattern change , and were they right ? Yes. So let things unfold over the days and chill out, the ECM goes against teleconnections and the whole pattern we about to enter into, pls GET A GRIP FOLKS.

[snowstorm445]

Minority (or sometimes even majority) of plausable models show cold: "Let's be cautious! It's not cast in stone! Calm down!"

Majority (and at the moment minority) of plausible models showing mild: "Awful! Awful! No signs of cold weather! Must be true!"

Can everyone please take a deep breath and stop freaking out at the slightest hint of mild! Yesterday the ECM was on board with the UKMO and against the GFS in favour of a cold spell. Now it's played a role reversal and the ECM is the odd one out. Until there is proper consistency, and I mean a few days of consistency, not just a one model run and a few minors, then we can have some form of confidence on what lies ahead.

We get this despair everytime something like this crops up, so I won't be holding my breath. Take a chill pill people!

[cooling climate]

It's game over - incredible how the weather can make fools of us. To be fair it was always possible that the Arctic High would not be able to make the link, so difficult is the modelling in that area.

Whenever an Arctic High link up has failed and there have been many over the years - you have had all the eggs in that basket because the jet has broken through at a Northern latitude and you are raising pressure from the South, so it is another 10 days at the very least before you can get another shot.

Interesting to see if Choino could shed some light on if it was the cooling of the Strat in the first third of November that has tilted this in the direction we are now seeing.

I wonder how this post will look when the ensembles come out later or when we wake up

in the morning lol. No need to panick.

[Harsh Climate]

Yes but the AO and NAO only reflect what the models show.

Yes but the AO and NAO only reflect what the models show.

http://www.cpc.ncep....ex/ao.sprd2.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep....na/nao.fcst.gif

Yes and there is a lot of agreement for the AO and NAO been around -3 next saturday so I find it hard to believe the atlantic will just smash through as easily on the ECM for the same day.

Look at how the atlantic smashes through the block on the ECM at 144H

Wherea's on the GFS at 144h the atlantic depression waiting in the wings sweeps over the top of our blocking high allowing us to stay in the cold air. The gfs scenario is much more likely in a negative NAO and AO. You say they are only based on the output but look at how strong the agreement is and how close the perpetrations are clumped together, I believe that more than '1 ECM RUN' any day!

Edited November 25, 2012 by Harsh Climate

[danm]

It's game over - incredible how the weather can make fools of us.

So days of excellent operational outputs,ever improving ensemble suites, excellent composites all showing high latitude blocking and a Euro trough + all the info regarding the teleconnections that GP, Chiono and others have shared should all be binned because of a couple of poor operational runs?! No thank you. T

[TEITS]

Let me just throw something in here.

If the ECM+ less reliable models i.e NOGAPS, BOM, GEM etc were predicting bitter E,lys and the UKMO/GFS was saying no and predicting mild W,lys, what would some of the posts on this thread be saying?

I shall answer this and say some will back the UKMO/GFS because its the lesser models that are backing the ECM therefore it must be wrong. We would also see comments such as "the UKMO always handles these synoptics much better".

When you interpret the model output you should always do this without allowing your bias to affect your judgement. I would love the UKMO to be correct but frankly at the moment I don't know which will be correct. The comments such as "Game over" are just silly and unfortunately some do not learn from the same mistakes!

[PubliusEnigma]

Where does it say that?-

The ECM 144 is a long way away from the GFS & UKMO which are pretty similar- &

the ECM feels fast & very flat- its not to say it wont happen, but my money is still on the UKMO-

ECM 192 is total game over.- lets hope its a cannon fodder run!

S

The Canadian Low has steamrollered east and smashed the block to smithereens.

Im not sure I believe the ECM. Its transferred the entire remnants of the PV and moved

it from NE Canada across to Scandinavia ?

I dont like the look of this one bit.. Its going in the Bin for now. The UKMO has been solid and the GFS more reliable in the last

24 hours at least.

[cyclonic happiness]

Yep, let us just see what the 18z has to show and the other are quite right, the ECM throw a hissy fit right before the 2010 winter spell and everyone was shocked and horrified.

It's simply too early to write off a cold spell yet.

[Matty M]

The ECM is not too surprising.

The shift happened overnight.

Last nights 12z ECM Ensembles were brilliant.

However there was a big change this morning.

And this has been compounded by this 12z ECM run.

[Ice BIast]

Uh oh, the JMA follows the ECM, and its not a bad model.

[johnholmes]

It's game over - incredible how the weather can make fools of us. To be fair it was always possible that the Arctic High would not be able to make the link, so difficult is the modelling in that area.

Whenever an Arctic High link up has failed and there have been many over the years - you have had all the eggs in that basket because the jet has broken through at a Northern latitude and you are raising pressure from the South, so it is another 10 days at the very least before you can get another shot.

Interesting to see if Choino could shed some light on if it was the cooling of the Strat in the first third of November that has tilted this in the direction we are now seeing.

Ian if you really believe this then that is fine you are perfectly entitled to your opinion. However I would like some 'meat' so to speak to show your theory is sound, charts or more explanation please?

Edited November 25, 2012 by Paul

[The Eagle]

For:

UKMO

GFS operational

Against

ECM

BOM

NOGAPS

GEM

CFS

Ho hum...not going to say writing is on the wall. But it nearly is. If the GFS operational goes the same way on the 18z that would be that really. Going with one model against the rest would be silly after that.

[Dexter29]

I know it's only 1 op run but can the ECM be so wrong at that timeframe?

Has the ECM ever been so off the mark before at that timeframe?

[lorenzo]

ECM piling in with the drama at 120, then better at 144..then disappointing from a cold perspective. Still think FI is 96 hrs out at this point, prior to the Greenland progression ECM making more of the LP in the North Pacific than GFS / UKMO. Why is it always a Sunday when we get this without the forensic benefit of CPC analysis !

ECM GFS UKMO

GFS anomaly for the last 12z runs posted yesterday demonstrated a leaning to deepen lows at that South Greenland tip., whether this actually stalls their eastward progression or not - unsure. If so the ECM solution shown would be logical.

As GP said what seems like days ago the operational runs are best ignored at times, albeit we haven't been igoring them because more often than not over recent days they have showed us some great eye candy progressions. I agree the winning model getting it this wrong, at this range unlikely, but perhaps not impossible.

The game over post I do not agree with, yes many have been chasing cold evolutions.. for me there is still plenty of cold in play.

Edit to add charts

Edited November 25, 2012 by lorenzo

[Mark Bayley]

Yep, and whilst the ECM has been a little bit inconsistent in its outputs, it has been consistent in sending that trough into Scandi for many runs now, the GFS agrees with this(I still don't understand how the GFS has backed the UKMO in people's eyes) so whilst the UKMO has perhaps rather surprisingly has not backed down, the ECM has not either, still I did not expect to see a horror show of a run like this though.

The UKMO was nearly on the money in the last cold snap but for a late change of a shortwave heading from the Labrador Sea into Greenland which killed off the Greenland high much quicker than it should so it will be interesting too see which model is right on this occasion. UKMO is really the only model I can see which has got snow potential within 120 hours, the GFS is not cold enough for low level snow until a later timeframe.

Of course, if the ECM is too keen on sending a bit too much energy further East, then the rest of its output will be wrong, however if the GFS/UKMO have not picked this up, then their outputs will be totally wrong! The GFS only backs the UKMO up regarding the Atlantic ridge but still disagrees with the positioning of the trough/low pressure system towards our east which determines how cold any cold set up gets!

If you look at the NH view you will see the UKMO is similar to the GFS in that they both send the low up western greeland, while the ECM just sends it straight through.

To be fair the ECM is still quite good, sure in the shorter term it is not as good as the UKMO and GFS, however upstream blocking remains, the PV remains disrupted, and heights are again building over Greenland towards the end of the run. This is supported by current stratospheric output, and some of the MJO forecasts as my post yesterday alluded to.

Edited November 25, 2012 by Mark Bayley

[Ian Brown]

Ah you haven't changed have you . So days of excellent operational outputs,ever improving ensemble suites, excellent composites all showing high latitude blocking and a Euro trough + all the info regarding the teleconnections that GP, Chiono and others have shared should all be binned because of a couple of poor operational runs?! No thank you. The ECM may be right, it may have picked upon a trend, but "game over"? You are on nothing more than a wind up.

What I'm saying is that it is game over for this cold spell if the ECM, NOGAPS,BOM, GEM, and most of the GFS ensembles verify. Anyone who has been around any length of time will know that getting the Arctic High into play without shortwaves getting in the way has been nigh on impossible since January 1987.

If the link fails you are not looking at a quick second bite of the cherry because the JET HAS BROKEN THROUGH AT NORTHERN LATITUDES and you are then dependent on the next pattern change down the line, whenever that may come.

[January Snowstorm]

I really cannot believe this and others, every single day if you listen to the experienced ones they say do not get hung up on one run,

Am sorry but the ECM this morning and last night had the same trend

Also a lot of the minor models back the ECM

Also the ensembles have been trending away from severe cold for several days now

So it's not one run its been building for sevral days and this is the climax of it.

You are right though we were all excited an hour ago so there is still hope the UKMO has it right

I suppose the reason there is disappointment is the odds of a cold spell currently stand around 30% at bext whereas 2 days ago they pbly stood at 85%

So disappointment is well founded, but this could easily swing back to cold again

[MR EXTREMES]

if the ECM and the minor models are correct its time to call the GFS and UKMO cannon fodder

ECM T144 is such a typical chart for this part of the world, ridge toppling such a common synoptic

not at all it does not end the cold outlook it takes longer to get there.

the heights to our north are well and truely embedded i think post like this just proves that some just cant understand that models do wobble.

tomorrow will see the return of a more stable model runs,

look at this mornings and lastnights ecm bom and jma runs total flip its a wobble bigtime.

[Paul]

Any danger we can discuss what is actually in the models rather than so many of these, 'winter is over', 'told you so', angst filled, over the top, dramatic posts which are either designed to create reaction (maybe some want to annoy, maybe some are desperate to be told that all will be ok and that they can build a snow man afterall so post as negatively as possible in the hope that others will disagree), whatever the reason though, some objectivity and model related discussion wouldn't go amiss.

Thanks

[LomondSnowstorm]

For:

UKMO

GFS operational

Against

ECM

BOM

NOGAPS

GEM

CFS

Ho hum...not going to say writing is on the wall. But it nearly is. If the GFS operational goes the same way on the 18z that would be that really. Going with one model against the rest would be silly after that.

I'd like to add NAEFS to the 'for' camp, whatever it's 'for', because it certainly looks more like the GFS and the UKMO than the ECM plus the minors.

[MR EXTREMES]

Am sorry but the ECM this morning and last night had the same trend

Also a lot of the minor models back the ECM

Also the ensembles have been trending away from severe cold for several days now

So it's not one run its been building for sevral days and this is the climax of it.

You are right though we were all excited an hour ago so there is still hope the UKMO has it right

I suppose the reason there is disappointment is the odds of a cold spell currently stand around 30% at bext whereas 2 days ago they pbly stood at 85%

So disappointment is well founded, but this could easily swing back to cold again

dissagree none of the models showed such a dramatic shift and teleconnections favour more than the wobbly ecm ect ect.

[Liam J]

For:

UKMO

GFS operational

Against

ECM

BOM

NOGAPS

GEM

CFS

Ho hum...not going to say writing is on the wall. But it nearly is. If the GFS operational goes the same way on the 18z that would be that really. Going with one model against the rest would be silly after that.

I'm afraid you can now add the JMA to the against list.

Only can the ECM cause so much frantic panic in this thread, we all know how good the ECM is.... The changes became apparent overnight with further back tracking on the 12z. The ECM has a massive amount of support this evening, regrettably.

Edited November 25, 2012 by Liam J

[Frosty.]

countryfile will save the day... or night even, we still have an excellent ukmo, thats 2 peachy ukmo runs today, as yesterday, and a good gfs 00z followed by an excellent 6z followed by a stonking gfs 12z. The ecm has been wobbling like a jelly in the last 2 or 3 days and apart from 1 mega run early in the week, has never really been fully onboard.