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Upcoming Cold (Chilly?) Snap


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

I'm just done this post in the model discussion thread which I hope will be of assistance to some.

There have been a few informative posts in there today, so it is well worth reading up on. drinks.gif

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

I'd be very surprised to see anything South of Scotland falling as snow during this first upcoming cold snap, I think the second shot of cold early next week might see a better opportunity for those along the NE Coasts , such as Sunderland.

Possibility of some sleet or as the Met likes to call them ''Wintery showers'' for a time over the hill tops of other places in the country at some point either this weekend or at some point next week.

As always the East looks more favored for anything falling out of the sky to be white.

FI keeps on chucking out a raging South Westerly, but at the same time it keeps putting it back run after run, which is always a good sign.

However, I still can't see this current pattern lasting beyond mid November , despite what any of the charts say.

All the time Low Pressure systems keep ejecting from Greenland and firing off towards the UK we'll be stuck in this pattern that we see emerging for next week, which is enough to keep me happy anyway. (for now).

What will be interesting is how the snow and cold air over Central Europe will effect this as GP has mentioned previously (or if it will at all), either way at least we all have something to talk about in the reliable time frame now.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Well I'm off up to Scotland tomorrow heading for Aviemore via perth up the A9, I've timed it very well coinciding with the first proper northerly outbreak of the season.....What better way to witness the transition as the Arctic air plunges southwards - Should be some stunning scenery on offer and maybe even some of the white stuff biggrin.png A bit chilly to start Friday Brrrr......

post-9615-0-97622800-1351014329_thumb.pn post-9615-0-18924700-1351014354_thumb.pn post-9615-0-46071000-1351014369_thumb.pn

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

Yorkshire have more of a chance of snow on the 29th according to this

uksnowrisk.png

All places in Yorkshire with atleast a 30% of snow, most places with a 50-55% chance.

uksnowrisk.png

Some places in the south with a 50% on the 29th.

Too be taken with a pinch of salt of course.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Yorkshire have more of a chance of snow on the 29th according to this

All places in Yorkshire with atleast a 30% of snow, most places with a 50-55% chance.

Some places in the south with a 50% on the 29th.

Too be taken with a pinch of salt of course.

Barry, I did post the t850s ensembles for West Yorkshire based on the 06z earlier. So it will be interesting to see how the 12z compares or even this time tomorrow. good.gif

You never know, you might even get two bites of the cherry at that rate. Let's hope we get a surprise or two along the way to the weekend.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

have a look in the Net Wx Guides about will it snow-the first need is for the model to be showing precipitation over the nearest grid square, if not then forget any will it won't it=it won't!

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According to the snow forecast there is a 37% chance of snow early next Monday moning, but I really doubt that will happen this far south :p

I think there is a real chance the October minimum temp record could be matched or broken here though. Record is currently -3.6, and BBC weather have Swindon down for -3 Saturday night.

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Posted
  • Location: Nelson, Caerphilly County, 175m ASL
  • Location: Nelson, Caerphilly County, 175m ASL

Possibility of hill snow at the end of the month and into November mentioned on BBC Wales weather this evening, and generally cold and unsettled.

If wintry weather is making it this far south then there's little reason why the Midlands and Southern England, depending on height, won't see something.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

A Stonker, for the time of year, ok its not going to bring a countrywide blizzard, but only 2008 has seen any better October chart verify in my lifetime.

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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

A Stonker, for the time of year, ok its not going to bring a countrywide blizzard, but only 2008 has seen any better October chart verify in my lifetime.

Look's short lived though, forecasted to get to 10C here on Sunday cray.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Look's short lived though, forecasted to get to 10C here on Sunday cray.gif

Still about 4c below the seasonal average so that's not bad :D

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Look's short lived though, forecasted to get to 10C here on Sunday cray.gif

TBH Barry, a few light flurries just dont float my boat anymore, however, it is still good for the time of year, ive only got back into this game (snow chasing) after missing out in 09, im after the big one, obviously a 2"er is better than a 1 but a 6 is better thsn a 2, a few light flurries are better than jack, but im after the big one - mid 80s / 90 / 91, im not bothered about having endless anticyclonic weather for weeks afterwards just to preserve it and although i would love a 47 winter, i am realistic enough to know its unlikely, just a big massive dumping (preferably over a foot of level snow with a convective build up to the main event, and a messy battleground breakdown afterwards and that will do me fine.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl

18_147_mslp850.png?cb=562

18Z seems to be cooking up something interesting for monday onwards, I smell a reload good.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

Based on the 18z - best chance of any white stuff will be early hours of Tuesday morning through the midlands clearing through the south east. Wet surfaces and high soil temperatures will mean very little will settle away from hills.

Hillier areas of the north and Scotland and Northern Ireland can expect some wintry showers from the weekend onwards.

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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Taking a look at the freezing level chart for next tuesday morning,(all charts same time)

12103006_2_2318.gif

why am i looking at these particular charts? let me show some more charts first then your see why,

Next the 850s upper temps:

12103006_2_2318.gif

925hpa(look at the green area)

12103006_2_2318.gif

500/1000hpa Thickness next:

12103006_2_2318.gif

And next the surprise chart..

12103006_2_2318.gif

It looks like we could be seeing more widespread snowfall moving south monday/tuesday.

GFS 18z

This is a long way off in terms of forecasting snowfall, things can change, but the way things are going i only expect it to stay the same or to upgrade.

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Going to be a case of blink and you've missed it. Steadily being downgraded with each run sadly.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Yep, looks like it's shaping up to come a little further South by Tuesday, into Wales and the Midlands?

post-6667-0-34697400-1351062055_thumb.jp

Then maybe even into East Anglia and The Home Counties?

post-6667-0-74070500-1351062226_thumb.jp

http://www.snow-fore...maps/dynamic/uk

Edited by Coast
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Yep, looks like it's shaping up to come a little further South by Tuesday, into Wales and the Midlands?

Then maybe even into East Anglia and The Home Counties?

http://www.snow-fore...maps/dynamic/uk

Indeed Coast, whilst it's still FI and rather futile behaviour, chasing snowfall at this range, I am liking the cooling trend. good.gif Hell, the ensembles for a few runs now don't show anything remotely mild for the next 10 to 12 days once we get to Friday, which is far removed from many late Octobers and early Novembers. This in itself is very positive news and it is thanks in part to the extensive Northern Blocking which is not going anywhere. The only upgrades and even downgrades that I see are from IMBY perspectives and specifically relate to snowfall.search.gif

The Met Office are consistently referring to a cooling trend over the sam timescale and even beyond, which I have reproduced below.

UK Outlook for Sunday 28 Oct 2012 to Tuesday 6 Nov 2012:

After a mainly dry, chilly start in the south, cloud and rain will spread from the north to most areas during Sunday, with hill snow probable for a time. After this clears, the UK will settle into a regime of mostly rather cold and unsettled weather, with a mixture of sunny spells and wintry showers interspersed with periods of more persistent rain, sleet and hill snow, the hill snow mainly in the north. It will often be windy, with gales probable in the north and west at times. Although occasional spells of near-normal temperatures are likely, on the whole it will be rather cold. Overnight frosts are likely to be widespread on some nights, even in the south, with a risk of icy stretches developing where surfaces remain wet.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 7 Nov 2012 to Wednesday 21 Nov 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, however there is a signal for temperatures to stay below average for November across much of the UK. Scotland is more likely than other areas to see near normal temperatures. Rainfall amounts are likely to be around average with periods of rain or showers at times and the chance of wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland. There are likely to be clear and dry spells too, leading to an overnight frost risk at times across the UK.

Met Office Issued at: 0508 on Wed 24 Oct 2012

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Gloucestershire [prev. Bucks and Devon]
  • Weather Preferences: Snow deprived so anything white.
  • Location: Gloucestershire [prev. Bucks and Devon]

Am I more likely to experience it in Buckinghamshire or Plymouth? Thinking of heading to see my folks for a weekend and might make it this one. Be nice to see some frost!

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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

Update using the latest GFS charts,

Friday morning looking very cold across the country with -5c in Scotland, -3c in Northern England and -1c in Wales. Certainly a slight upgrade from yesterday,

Saturday morning is much more widespread affecting all inland parts of the UK, getting down to -4c in some places,

Sunday morning not as cold but still cold across the far South,

Monday morning it's mainly the Highlands of Scotland getting the cold temps back,

Snow charts bear in mind they change a lot so exact details won't be known just yet,

Thursday night over the North of Scotland,

Friday morning perhaps some wintry stuff moving South,

Friday evening snow over Northern Scotland and parts of Ireland and England,

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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

Update using the latest GFS charts,

Friday morning looking very cold across the country with -5c in Scotland, -3c in Northern England and -1c in Wales. Certainly a slight upgrade from yesterday,

Saturday morning is much more widespread affecting all inland parts of the UK, getting down to -4c in some places,

Sunday morning not as cold but still cold across the far South,

Monday morning it's mainly the Highlands of Scotland getting the cold temps back,

Snow charts bear in mind they change a lot so exact details won't be known just yet,

Thursday night over the North of Scotland,

Friday morning perhaps some wintry stuff moving South,

Friday evening snow over Northern Scotland and parts of Ireland and England,

These charts can't really be taken seriously this far out like you said, but if they remain like that 12 hours before the event, that's when it gets exciting. Although with snow even that far out is difficult to predict.

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