Tropical Storm Olivia

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Storm Olivia formed yesterday well out to sea at about 117 degrees W. Olivia is strengthening pretty quickly and is now a 50kt storm. Olivia has a tight core surrounded by strong banding. Olivia has about another 36hrs to strengthen, and is forecast to become a hurricane before shear increases after this time. Olivia is currently turning towards the northwest into a weakness in the ridging to the north, after moving westwards from birth yesterday. When the shear impacts Olivia, the storm should turn back towards the west as it becomes a shallow system steered by low level easterly flow.

[Somerset Squall]

Moderate shear has affected Olivia over the last 24hrs, and the intensity has remained at 50kts. Olivia is expected to remain in a steady state over the next 24hrs as conditions are expected to remain similar as the storm crawls towards the north. Beyond this time, southwesterly shear is expected to destroy Olivia, decoupling the low and mid level circulations, leaving the remnant low level centre to turn southwestwards in the low level flow.