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Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2


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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

what ever that guy was smoking during making that forecast i would love some of that stuf. Sounds like his forecasting for antartica.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Location: Cheshire

A continual cold forecaster - last year he didn't do too well.

To quote him:

My snow & cold forecast for November & December 2011 for the UK was shocking, and that’s putting it politely, although several parts of my forecast for other parts of the planet have been ok thus far…………

Being a Firtreeonian (just invented the word) I take a certain degree of pride in predicting the weather, as do all Firtreeonians, consequently I’ve been looking through my original notes for winter 2011 / 2012 over the last few days to try find where I went wrong……Now I know where I’ve slipped up, and without giving too many of my secrets away I will say that the reason for my failure to predict the milder, as opposed to the colder conditions that I actually predicted for Nov – Dec & the first two weeks of January, has everything to do with the relationship of the Perigee Moon with the Full Moon for those periods

It appears that being a Firtreeonian isn't the only thing that he has invented.

I'll put this one in the crackpot variety.

At least he admit's that he got the early part of last winter wrong which more than can be said about certain others..

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

At least he admit's that he got the early part of last winter wrong which more than can be said about certain others..

That is true, though it does seem an extreme forecast, i'd be very suprised if he doesn't even like snow, sounds like a proper ramp! OTT biased forecast...aggressive.gif

Edited by Mark 'Ox' Neal
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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

I'll be frank with you guys. This man is definitely calling snowmageddon and some things MAY never happen in a million years...however I don't think anyone is in any position to tell him what's right and what's wrong because nobody else has a clue themselves. If you said to someone back in September 1962 that we would see one of our worst winters ever with foot after foot of snow for 3 months, would they believe you? Probably not.

Edited by Perfect Storm
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Posted
  • Location: W. Northants
  • Location: W. Northants

I'm always a little bemused when I see anyone putting out an in depth winter forecast so soon (some even put winter forecasts out in the summer) Because for me, so much depends on the evolution of SST's, ice and snow cover and other things, that occurs through autumn.

I won't really develop a firm idea until mid November at the earliest.

Of course if your relying solely on models, thats a little differant.

Edited by Gavin P
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Posted
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Blizzards, Hoarfrost, Frost and Extremes
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL

http://www.wsi.com/f4929e77-a7e9-4c8e-8f0a-63dfaa78e708/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

Don't know if this has been posted on here. Warning! Do not open link if you are a coldie! blum.gif

Yep, I believe it has been posted and in the words of John Holmes it's ''tripe''

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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom

http://www.wsi.com/f...ase-details.htm

Don't know if this has been posted on here. Warning! Do not open link if you are a coldie! blum.gif

Yeah i've had a look. I'm definitly not taking in anything it says. Not just because im a "coldie" :p but because it has no backup or any evidence. Just as i would dismiss madden's crazy forecast. As Gavin P quite rightly said, there is a minimal tripole slowly developing in the atlantic which would bias towards blocking anyways. So even the opening statement is innacurate. I know its too early but still even the models are biased towards blocking occuring mid-november. Obviously doesn't mean it will happen but at least mad-man madden could use one those as a straw to clutch at.

*Rant over* :p

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Yep, I believe it has been posted and in the words of John Holmes it's ''tripe''

I presume it's because it isn't to your fancy?

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

The GFS is starting to signs of how things could potentially start going wrong if you're a cold lover..

Let's hope it isn't a theme that starts persisting.

What makes you say this? Its the end of September... plenty of time to go yet.. and Deep Fi

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

The GFS is starting to signs of how things could potentially start going wrong if you're a cold lover..

Let's hope it isn't a theme that starts persisting.

Yep the dreaded polar vortex is shown to start materialising in FI. BUT its still early days.

I think last year a lot of the winter was spent waiting for it to weaken and it took forever, which is one reason why we were stuck with the persistent euro high for a lot of it, along with drier milder weather. (Although normally it strengthens the influence from westerlies?)

As ive said its still early and plenty of time for change. Still 2 months of autumn left. Does anyone know when the polar vortex really set in strongly last year?

Edited by Chris K
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Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Surrey
  • Location: Bramley, Surrey

Yep, I believe it has been posted and in the words of John Holmes it's ''tripe''

I may be wrong but I think Mr. Holmes was referring to this http://www.cloudyskies.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=1347&sid=c59c04c25faaff2683078383d9d53dd6

and not the link I posted?

Anywho... Neither of the aforementioned forecasts have a solid scientific backing.

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

The GFS is starting to signs of how things could potentially start going wrong if you're a cold lover..

Let's hope it isn't a theme that starts persisting.

Winters over?rolleyes.gif
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Just a reminder... It is 2 months until winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Dont want any cold synoptics yet! only 30th sep, still summer, good sign surely if the zonal train showing on GFS? will change hopefully by mid nov

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

since it is the last day of september october might bring some more info on the coming winter.

also, i know it is way to early but i am watching news 24, still no news on the snow front.

Blimey you will put yourself in an early grave

look forward to speaking to you when the Regional threads opens......

C.S

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

No, of course not, it's still something worth watching out for over the next few weeks though, same goes for the opposite scenario i.e blocking

He was being sarcastic Anonymous :)

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Posted
  • Location: Brussels, Belgium
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy weather in winter, dry and warm weather in summer
  • Location: Brussels, Belgium

Yep the dreaded polar vortex is shown to start materialising in FI. BUT its still early days.

I think last year a lot of the winter was spent waiting for it to weaken and it took forever, which is one reason why we were stuck with the persistent euro high for a lot of it, along with drier milder weather. (Although normally it strengthens the influence from westerlies?)

As ive said its still early and plenty of time for change. Still 2 months of autumn left. Does anyone know when the polar vortex really set in strongly last year?

Agreed. The fact that it is not even October and that it is in the depths of FI, which we all know to be unreliable, means there is a minimal chance that what we are seeing will win hands down and will dominate the coming winter.

The best indicator of how strong the PV will be is by looking at the NAO. The NAO measures the difference in strength between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. If it is forecast to be positive, you can expect above average heights to South (i.e. the Azores High), and below average heights to the North (i.e. the Icelandic Low), and as a result, you see a strong polar vortex, as the difference in pressure between the two pressure systems becomes larger, and thus the Jet Stream becomes more powerful and westerlies prevail. Basically, in a period of positive NAO, our normal zonal pattern prevails as a result of the strong PV.

At the moment, the NAO is forecast to stabilise at around neutral, which is why the GFS might be seeing this.

nao.sprd2.gif

A very strong PV isn't likely to happen unless we see a strongly positive NAO. Apparently the GFS tends to naturally bring in milder air at the end of its runs anyway, or so I've heard.

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Posted
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Blizzards, Hoarfrost, Frost and Extremes
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL

I presume it's because it isn't to your fancy?

Totally, but I am pretty sure it has been ridiculed by the more knowledgeable folks on this forum!

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