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Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The two factors I'm looking at this winter are: the build-up of snow cover away to the NE and, how the Jet Stream responds (or doesn't respond) to the disappearing Arctic sea-ice...To make much sense out of all the possible influences combined, seems a tad too complicated...

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Posted
  • Location: W. Northants
  • Location: W. Northants

Hi all;

Here's my second winter 2012/2013 round-up video. The video explores things like sea surface temperature anomalies, arctic sea ice and snow conver, as well as other elements, to see how conditions are evolving in terms of winter 2012/2013 as move well into autumn.

http://www.gavsweath...m/seasonal.html

More updates will follow in October. If you have any questions about the video please ask. :)

Thanks all.

Edited by Gavin P
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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

According to Glacier Point's summary, one factor I take from it is that of a current probability of increased Northern Hemisphere blocking, during the crucial part of the early winter season, i.e. November through to January.

November is late Autumn. December early winter and January Mid winter in 'old money'.

We might then avoid winters over in November when the teleconnections don't 'show' what we want 6 weeks ahead. Obvioulsy at present no one can forecast 6 weeks ahead but people will worry mid November, how I miss the days of looking out the window or the old weekly farmers forecast sorry.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Barnsley 125asl
  • Location: Barnsley 125asl

Ahhhhh Deary me, here we go with the daily express lol gotta love there "Attempt"

"An Arctic blast from Iceland will bring snow, ice, flooding and bitter gales to Britain next week, forecasters have warned.

The Daily Express reports that forecasters have warned mercury will plummet to near freezing in many areas, including the Scottish Highlands and parts of northern England, with daytime temperatures 15C lower than this time last year."rofl.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Heres the latest Richard Crabtree forecast

Could be snowmeggedon according to him

http://www.cloudyski...3078383d9d53dd6

So much Sedna, what about planet Earth!

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Posted
  • Location: Stockport
  • Weather Preferences: lots of snow
  • Location: Stockport

since it is the last day of september october might bring some more info on the coming winter.

also, i know it is way to early but i am watching news 24, still no news on the snow front.

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

Heres the latest Richard Crabtree forecast

Could be snowmeggedon according to him

http://www.cloudyski...3078383d9d53dd6

did he cut and paste the alaskan winter forecast?? even james madden would say he was being ridiculous!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.

I'd like to know what science, if any, this is based on.

I could quite easily type out a 'forecast' for any given season based on nothing more than my personal hopes but it wouldn't have any more credibility than anyone else's forecast based on their particular hopes.

Without some science to back it up, Richard Crabtree's forecast falls firmly into the above category.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Heres the latest Richard Crabtree forecast

Could be snowmeggedon according to him

http://www.cloudyski...3078383d9d53dd6

A continual cold forecaster - last year he didn't do too well.

To quote him:

My snow & cold forecast for November & December 2011 for the UK was shocking, and that’s putting it politely, although several parts of my forecast for other parts of the planet have been ok thus far…………

Being a Firtreeonian (just invented the word) I take a certain degree of pride in predicting the weather, as do all Firtreeonians, consequently I’ve been looking through my original notes for winter 2011 / 2012 over the last few days to try find where I went wrong……Now I know where I’ve slipped up, and without giving too many of my secrets away I will say that the reason for my failure to predict the milder, as opposed to the colder conditions that I actually predicted for Nov – Dec & the first two weeks of January, has everything to do with the relationship of the Perigee Moon with the Full Moon for those periods

It appears that being a Firtreeonian isn't the only thing that he has invented.

I'll put this one in the crackpot variety.

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Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe

A continual cold forecaster - last year he didn't do too well.

To quote him:

My snow & cold forecast for November & December 2011 for the UK was shocking, and that’s putting it politely, although several parts of my forecast for other parts of the planet have been ok thus far…………

Being a Firtreeonian (just invented the word) I take a certain degree of pride in predicting the weather, as do all Firtreeonians, consequently I’ve been looking through my original notes for winter 2011 / 2012 over the last few days to try find where I went wrong……Now I know where I’ve slipped up, and without giving too many of my secrets away I will say that the reason for my failure to predict the milder, as opposed to the colder conditions that I actually predicted for Nov – Dec & the first two weeks of January, has everything to do with the relationship of the Perigee Moon with the Full Moon for those periods

It appears that being a Firtreeonian isn't the only thing that he has invented.

I'll put this one in the crackpot variety.

We could put this one over in the Radical Theorem Discussion thread? The relationship of the moon to seasonal weather forecasts.......

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Posted
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley

Sorry to interupt but some people have been saying that were going to have a cold snap next week?

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Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe

Sorry to interupt but some people have been saying that were going to have a cold snap next week?

According to a certain tabloid paper we are. I don't see anything out of the ordinary though to be honest.

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Posted
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley

According to a certain tabloid paper we are. I don't see anything out of the ordinary though to be honest.

ok cheers where do they get their infomation from lol

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

November is late Autumn. December early winter and January Mid winter in 'old money'.

We might then avoid winters over in November when the teleconnections don't 'show' what we want 6 weeks ahead. Obvioulsy at present no one can forecast 6 weeks ahead but people will worry mid November, how I miss the days of looking out the window or the old weekly farmers forecast sorry.gif

Did you think I didn't know that. Ok, I slipped up, besides I did post that at 10.30pm when my brain starts to cease to function. However, I still maintain that there on in, you can start to look for signs of the coming period. Much the same can be said of late February if looking for early signs of spring. acute.gif

Also I refer to it as the crucial period because come February, given many a recent one, laying snow becomes much reduced. My crude analogy of a specific timeframe from approximately 7th November (Midway Autumn Equinox) through to 6th February (Midway Winter Equinox) I feel, is still an useful indicator.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

There is a strong mountain torque event happening which can effect things in the strat which is nice to talk about so early.

From now until march can be very exciting as well as soul destroying !!

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

I'd like to know what science, if any, this is based on.

I could quite easily type out a 'forecast' for any given season based on nothing more than my personal hopes but it wouldn't have any more credibility than anyone else's forecast based on their particular hopes.

Without some science to back it up, Richard Crabtree's forecast falls firmly into the above category.

And even then, it would still fail. rofl.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

I've never read such an accurate forecast....gobsmacked at its accuracy, though its probably going to be a tad colder even......in Siberia good.gif

BFTP

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