Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2

[syed78]

i havent seen a proper bliserd here in brum i would love to c1 i hope we get 1 this winter well i can only dream.

[Mountain Snow]

I'd much prefer stormy weather during November and first half of December, then blocked conditions thereafter. Would love a severe blizzard this year, think it would have to come from a frontal battleground situation, as where I am is too sheltered by the Pennines to the East and Scotland to the North. I would happily take one big snow event that stuck around for a week or two, then the rest of winter mild than the usual light frosts and inch of snow here and there.

Currently tucking into some Christmas chocolate log from Morrisons, way too early for Christmas stuff but it does feel like winters getting closer now!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I'd much prefer stormy weather during November and first half of December, then blocked conditions thereafter. Would love a severe blizzard this year, think it would have to come from a frontal battleground situation, as where I am is too sheltered by the Pennines to the East and Scotland to the North. I would happily take one big snow event that stuck around for a week or two, then the rest of winter mild than the usual light frosts and inch of snow here and there.

Currently tucking into some Christmas chocolate log from Morrisons, way too early for Christmas stuff but it does feel like winters getting closer now!

Not early Dec, I prefer it (if it happens at all) stormy weather during 0ct and first 2 weeks of Nov, 3rd week of Nov the snow season begins, and all I want is cold

[Aaron]

We had semi-blizzard conditions here in February, with snow blowing off the roofs of houses.

I recall a snow event, in 2004 I believe, when I was walking home and was caught out in a snowstorm with snow falling horizontally into my face - ouch, that was a true blizzard I think.

Edited September 29, 2012 by Aaron

[cheeky_monkey]

Can those long-term CFS forecasts ever be considered reliable? They always seem to flip-flop at whim.

Exactly so it is easy to cherry pick charts from 2009 or 2010 and say look they pretty much had those 2 winters nailed for cold....no doubt they would have shown lots of predictions for a mild winter too?

[Don]

Definitely true generally, but from a Highland perspective, the most impressive blizzards are often associated with large storm systems. I've seen Badenoch (the area in which Dalwhinnie and Kingussie lie) looking like a desert the morning after a storm system passed across the country, massive drifts of soft snow which contorted into almost sharp little peaks, all bathed in a weak yellow sunlight, an impressive sight!

In saying that, I'd take blocked conditions, the effects are more lasting!

Case in point:

Very impressive. Hopefully Ash high street will look like that in a few months! Snow day anyone?!

[gottolovethisweather]

Not early Dec, I prefer it (if it happens at all) stormy weather during 0ct and first 2 weeks of Nov, 3rd week of Nov the snow season begins, and all I want is cold

That is kind of how I analyse the true cold season.

http://forum.netweat...80#entry2374834

Note, my reference to the bit about the Equinox and my excitable timeframes.

Edited September 29, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Cheshire Freeze]

Exactly so it is easy to cherry pick charts from 2009 or 2010 and say look they pretty much had those 2 winters nailed for cold....no doubt they would have shown lots of predictions for a mild winter too?

There's a difference between analysing each and every CFS run and checking the CFS anomaly charts though? Any signal that may be picked out across the average of the sum of CFS runs will show in these charts.

These charts effectively portray the scenario which has the highest frequency amongst the daily CFS runs over a given period and can be very useful.

If one was to assume CFS runs were useless as chaos theory prevents any meaningful trends from appearing, one could also assume there would be a lack of clear cut bias towards any one particular synoptic eventuality, with little if any trend shown due to scenarios being equally likely and cancelling themselves out when averaged. However, this is not the case- this.can be seen by the mean height anomaly maps by the CFS, which often portray strong signals up to 4 months out.

Edited September 29, 2012 by CreweCold

[johnholmes]

Cherry picking of charts to suit a bias is well known on this and I assume other weather forums. It happens both in retrospect as mentioned above and most often when, usually the winter period, folk want to show the scenario they want to see.

Quite why folk cannot admit to that, some do so thanks for that, mystifies me, as it does not take long for their bias to show. Their posts, otherwise often quite good are thus skimmed over assuming them to be doing their usual bias bit.

As to CFS or any other long range charts-quoting one again for its 'view' looking like the poster hopes it will be is a waste of time. Like any model chart at longer time intervals its the trend NOT the specifics which should be looked at. If I had time I would collect every Met O output and every CFS output, look for trends and compare with what actually happened. How about it someone then we can see just how good or bad a particular model is?

Last autumn/early winter I looked EVERY day at CFS raw and Ensemble output and neither gave any meaningful help until into December when the Ensemble variant did give a reasonable picture of the months of January and February.

[TEITS]

As to CFS or any other long range charts-quoting one again for its 'view' looking like the poster hopes it will be is a waste of time. Like any model chart at longer time intervals its the trend NOT the specifics which should be looked at. If I had time I would collect every Met O output and every CFS output, look for trends and compare with what actually happened. How about it someone then we can see just how good or bad a particular model is?

Last autumn/early winter I looked EVERY day at CFS raw and Ensemble output and neither gave any meaningful help until into December when the Ensemble variant did give a reasonable picture of the months of January and February.

No need because you only have to look at the erractic F.I charts on the GFS to see the CFS is a waste of time. Due to my experience of following the models for many years I have noticed an improvement in the +144 to +240 time period but +300 proves as unreliable as ever. I cannot see the problem of the chaos theory being overcome in the near future either, even with computing power increasing all the time. Those slight changes early on will continue to cause those who program these computer models many more headaches.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I just posted this sunspot and winter CET analysis in the "The Hunt for White December" thread, but maybe some in here might appreciate it.

The results are the opposite of what I thought, so maybe I messed it up somewhere, but anyway, here ya go!

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Well, today I'm going to attempt some correlations between sunspots and the winter CET.

I'll be using annual sunspot numbers, based on the 12 month mean. The source is from the link to sunspot data in the opening post.

The sunspot data goes back to 1700, giving us plenty of years to find a correlation from.

The main issue with correlating sunspots and goings on in our weather, is that it isn't the sunspots themselves that influence the weather, but more so the ~11 year solar cycle they represent and the variations in the suns output, whether it be total solar irradiance, or fluctuations in a particular light wavelength.

It's long been thought that low solar activity is related to cooler temperatures on Earth and in particular, harsh winters in Europe, especially the UK. This is due to the low sunspot numbers observed during times such as the maunder minimum between about 1650 and 1715, a time when the UK experienced some very harsh winters, and when much of Europe cooled during the little ice age.

More recently, the surprise prolonged minimum experienced between 2007 and 2010 (and continued low solar activity) resulted in plenty of folk discussing the possibility of us entering another period of very low solar and sunspot activity, perhaps even a new grand minimum, with the associated severe winters. The return to cooler winters in 08/09 09/10 and 10/11 has been blamed by many on the sun, but with the rapid changes in the Arctic and the -ve PDO also occurring then, it's difficult to place blame on any one thing.

The latest research points the finger at UV variations as a contributor to cold winters in Europe.

Some papers for anyone interested

Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity?

The solar influence on the probability of relatively cold UK winters in the future

Anyhow, on to the correlations. As with all of these, feel free to point out any errors, as I'm sure there are at least some!

With sunspots there are lots of averaging and lags that can be used, so I'll try a good few here.

First off, just a graph of the Winter (DJF) CET and annual sunspot numbers, which as you might expect, has little correlation (<0.05)

Starting from here, I tried loads of different correlations, annual with a 1/2/5/11 year lag. 1/2/5/11 year averages with similar lags (detrending the CET data with the longer averages, as correlations may occur just because both solar and CET have upward trends) but very few produced a correlation coefficient higher than +/-0.1. ("1" being a perfect +ve correlation, 0 being none whatsoever, -1 being a perfect -ve correlation).

Here are some graphs from the ones I tried with.

11 Year Sunpot average and 1 Year Winter CET: Correlation +0.08

11 Year Sunspot average and detrended 11 year winter CET with an 11 year solar lag: Correlation -0.03

30 Year Sunspots and 30 Year Detrended WInter CET: Correlation: -0.08

11 Year Sunspots and 1 Year Winter CET since 1900: Correlation -0.06

11 Year Sunspots and 5 Year Average Winter CET since 1900: Correlation -0.12

Same as above but with the CET detrended: Correlation -0.27

So, what can we say from that? Well, over the long term, it seems there is little to no correlation on short time scales. When the sunspot and or CET data is averaged out for more than a decade, the correlation appears to turn weakly negative. This certainly goes against what I'd expected!

A negative correlation in this sense means the more sunpots, the lower the winter CET!

This relationship becomes stronger during since 1900, with increasing sunspot numbers from the lows of the 20s, up to the 60s, correlating negatively with a drop in winter CET values during the same time.

Perhaps, as suggested earlier, I've done something wrong! Or maybe in this case, the -ve PDO, -ve AMO and suspected increase in aerosols from pollution early to mid century caused more cooling here than the solar activity did warming? Or maybe internal natural variability just over-rides the solar influence occasionally? Perhaps I need some other measure such as total solar irradiance or UV output to get a better correlation? Hard to say.

Anyway, if anyone wants to suggest some more correlations for me to try, or tell me where I've messed up, please feel free to do so!

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[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

We had semi-blizzard conditions here in February, with snow blowing off the roofs of houses.

I recall a snow event, in 2004 I believe, when I was walking home and was caught out in a snowstorm with snow falling horizontally into my face - ouch, that was a true blizzard I think.

I remember this. it was when i was 8 and it was very exciting.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I remember this. it was when i was 8 and it was very exciting.

Feb 3-5th 2003 was very good for here, winds on the perfect angle, especially the completely unforcasted snow of Wednesday 5th, through cheshire gap

[Aaron]

Anchorage snow

http://www.borealisbroadband.net/vid-lakeotistudormega.htm

[Robbie Garrett]

Exactly so it is easy to cherry pick charts from 2009 or 2010 and say look they pretty much had those 2 winters nailed for cold....no doubt they would have shown lots of predictions for a mild winter too?

The CFS charts predicted last winter well too, they went for a mild and slightly dry winter. With February showing some cold.

[Methuselah]

Feb 3-5th 2003 was very good for here, winds on the perfect angle, especially the completely unforcasted snow of Wednesday 5th, through cheshire gap

It was brilliant, in the Sneck: about 50cm of drifting snow! It was around 18C two-days' before!

[feb1991blizzard]

I have not posted any eye candy for a few days so i will do so now. -12 uppers covering the country in the run up to xmas.

Edited September 29, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Weather-history]

Feb 3-5th 2003 was very good for here, winds on the perfect angle, especially the completely unforcasted snow of Wednesday 5th, through cheshire gap

We had snow showers during that spell gave a covering here. Missed the snow that parts of the East Midlands and Home Counties got just a few days before

[NorthernRab]

It was brilliant, in the Sneck: about 50cm of drifting snow! It was around 18C two-days' before!

Yes that was particularly amazing snow, pity it wasn't part of a more organised cold spell. Waist-deep snow in the higher parts of the city and even over a foot right beside the firth and lochs, truly memorable!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

just watched the whole of Dec 1995 on youtube (autoplay) seemed like a very good month

I remember getting a lot of snow on thurs 21st, and Sat 30th Dec

[Methuselah]

Yes that was particularly amazing snow, pity it wasn't part of a more organised cold spell. Waist-deep snow in the higher parts of the city and even over a foot right beside the firth and lochs, truly memorable!

I remember that BBC Scotland reporter (what's his name?) standing in Win Park saying, 'The snow's off,' followed shortly by, 'The snow's on again,'...And I was out trimming the hedge, in just a t-shirt (and jeans!) a few days' before...

[Chris D]

Not like it's worth anything but; November 2012 will be cold imho. (not that I mean any other months lol...)

But seriously, page 35 on a part 2 Winter 2012/13 thread is remarkable hahaha!

Edited September 29, 2012 by Chris D

[Methuselah]

just watched the whole of Dec 1995 on youtube (autoplay) seemed like a very good month

I remember getting a lot of snow on thurs 21st, and Sat 30th Dec

A whole month on Youtube!

[gottolovethisweather]

Whilst I find it very difficult to understand all the processes and terms involved, I believe a few in here may be interested in this post over on another thread.

http://forum.netweat...00#entry2375279

According to Glacier Point's summary, one factor I take from it is that of a current probability of increased Northern Hemisphere blocking, during the crucial part of the early winter season, i.e. November through to January. If this were to occur, there would be a higher chance of the United Kingdom being affected by winds predominantly from the North and more especially the East. If you are new to model watching or are simply an interested observer, please try not to notice the specifics but attempt to look for a trend going forwards. Again, of course, this can all change but the overall feel is that the late autumn/winter period, even at this early stage, could be most interesting for us cold lovers.

There is another potential problem though; I may have interpreted GP's thoughts completely wrongly. If so, will someone please shut the door behind me? Another caveat is that we are still just over two months away in Meteorological terms from actual winter itself. However, I do fancy the chances of a cold October.

*Down to 6.8c as I type this so I suspect an Air Frost will envelope a fair few places by morning.

Edited September 29, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[mackerel sky]

I would like some early air frosts so I don't have to cut the grass again. That for me would set enough of a precident. Then I look north.

Edited September 30, 2012 by mackerel sky