Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2

[summer blizzard]

In such an intense low scenario even the origin would not help us because of the warmer sector associated with it which would likely mean a rain to snow event at best, additionally with the source being so cold the cold front would likely be fairly dead once it reached England.

The best scenario for me would be a front approaching from the south west and then stalling as it slowly moved east so a October 1987 track, Channel Low tracking too far north. With that said the best single event was 6th January 2010 which saw a front stall as a wave developed from the north, i got 21cm in 10 hours.

[Backtrack]

Thanks for that! I think I'll go any slit my wrists now...!!!

Obviously no one can predict the weather for winter in September accurately, but after this year's disappointing weather all year round, I am not expecting for a turn of fortunes come late-November!

Edited September 27, 2012 by Backtrack

[Thundery wintry showers]

One scenario that hasn't been mentioned yet is the situation where we get embedded fronts and troughs in an arctic or continental airstream, which can bring belts of organised snowfall in an otherwise showery regime. This happened widely on the 5th/6th January 2010. The snowfalls over SE Scotland and NE England on the evenings of the 26th and 27th November 2010 were similarly enhanced by weak occluded fronts out in the North Sea. Such disturbances are often still associated with pools of comparitively warm air, but nothing like the warm airmasses that get into the mix around depressions associated with Atlantic fronts.

The 27th January 1996 was a good "easterly" example- many of us saw sunshine and snow showers on the 26th, and then a weak front moved over on the 27th and gave mostly cloudy weather with snow for southern Scotland and the northern half of England.

However many of the biggest snowfalls in central and western Britain, which are sheltered from North Sea convection, have historically arisen from "battleground" events with Atlantic weather systems pushing in and then stalling against cold arctic and/or continental air. In those situations areas on the poleward flank of the fronts can pick up large amounts of snow, although to the south and west of that it will often turn milder with rain, so we end up with euphoria for some snow lovers and disappointment for others depending on location. In most places near the North Sea, though, frontal battlegrounds tend to produce rather less than convection off the North Sea.

[shedhead]

The 16th December also brought the biggest snow event of the winter to the Tyne and Wear area. A small band of rain moved northwards overnight 15th/16th, ahead of the main frontal belt that affected Stoke, and then it retreated southwards, turning to snow as it did so. As a result, Cleadon had a few centimetres of snow, with more than that in some inland places and on higher ground. Showers followed behind off the North Sea although they turned to hail and sleet as a pool of slightly milder air moved in, and this trimmed away some of the snow cover. Nonetheless, there was more than 50% snow cover at Cleadon on the mornings of the 17th and 18th.

All very interesting, but I thought this thread was supposed to be looking forward to Winter 12/13, not looking back at snowfall events in 11/12.

[garbagebags]

All very interesting, but I thought this thread was supposed to be looking forward to Winter 12/13, not looking back at snowfall events in 11/12.

Only by looking at the past can we make sense of the future

[Met4Cast]

All very interesting, but I thought this thread was supposed to be looking forward to Winter 12/13, not looking back at snowfall events in 11/12.

Nothing wrong with talking about past winters, surely? It's not like we can really gauge anything new about the up-coming winter today.

[Mark Neal.]

Nothing wrong with talking about past winters, surely? It's not like we can really gauge anything new about the up-coming winter today.

Spot on, i don't see what the problem is with discussing our favourite winters etc.. it basically is leading us upto the coming winter, plus we can look at patterns and also what we would like to see this year in reference to what we have experienced in the past.

[Optimus Prime]

All very interesting, but I thought this thread was supposed to be looking forward to Winter 12/13, not looking back at snowfall events in 11/12.

Not really looking forward to the winter as you put it. Here come the dark mild drizzly days and at a time of the year when people start to get miserable and nature outside looks dead.

I'm looking forward to summer 2013. Or April 2013.

[Snowstorm1]

Im really looking forward to the winter as you put it. Here come the dark cold snowy days and the time of the year when people start to get happy and nature outside looks beautiful covered in the white crisp snowfall.

I'm looking forward to summer 2013. Or April 2013.

Edited the post for you mate

[gsteruk]

Not really looking forward to the winter as you put it. Here come the dark mild drizzly days and at a time of the year when people start to get miserable and nature outside looks dead.

I'm looking forward to summer 2013. Or April 2013.

why are you browsing and posting in a winter thread then?? lol

[Methuselah]

Bearing in mind that winter is still around 9 weeks' away...reminiscing about weather that's actually happened seems only reasonable. How many different ways are there, for saying: I want it to snow, or I want another '47/'63?

[zEROwantsnow]

http://www.snsk.no/longyearbyen.145587.en.html

looks nice ^^

[Snowman31]

Yep, it all depends on the direction of the wind. I had a Thames streamer bring 1 foot of snow in 2010 but the Thames streamer in 2009 gave me about 2 inches whilst London got 8inches, the direction of the flow is key to Thames Streamers and who gets the snowfall from them.

Low pressure systems are driven by warmer air within the system (very basically speaking, its more complicated) and the more intense the system, the warmer the warm sector. Ideally what we'd want is a weaker, shallower area of Low Pressure coming down, the warm sector, whilst still warmer than the surrounding air would probably be cold enough to keep the snow as snowfall.

Low Pressure systems are risky business when it comes to snowfall, I'd much rather an area of Low Pressure Eastwards to the South of the UK tightening Isobars strengthening winds from the East and giving sufficient forcing for heavy showers/bands of snow to develop from the North Sea.

I assume being in the NW of London would mean I would needa SE'ly wind direction?

[TEITS]

Personally I prefer convective snowfall compared to frontal. The simple reason being is heavy snowfalls can occur from E/NE,lys in my location and at times the airmass can be bitterly cold. This means the type of snow is often powdery and the snow ratio is excellent. The lying snow lasted ages during Dec 2009 due to a combination of weak sun, low temps but also the type of snow that had fallen. I often find frontal snowfall is more marginal and at times the dewpoints are much higher compared to a cold convective E,ly.

[Snowmadsam]

One scenario that hasn't been mentioned yet is the situation where we get embedded fronts and troughs in an arctic or continental airstream, which can bring belts of organised snowfall in an otherwise showery regime. This happened widely on the 5th/6th January 2010. The snowfalls over SE Scotland and NE England on the evenings of the 26th and 27th November 2010 were similarly enhanced by weak occluded fronts out in the North Sea. Such disturbances are often still associated with pools of comparitively warm air, but nothing like the warm airmasses that get into the mix around depressions associated with Atlantic fronts.

The 27th January 1996 was a good "easterly" example- many of us saw sunshine and snow showers on the 26th, and then a weak front moved over on the 27th and gave mostly cloudy weather with snow for southern Scotland and the northern half of England.

However many of the biggest snowfalls in central and western Britain, which are sheltered from North Sea convection, have historically arisen from "battleground" events with Atlantic weather systems pushing in and then stalling against cold arctic and/or continental air. In those situations areas on the poleward flank of the fronts can pick up large amounts of snow, although to the south and west of that it will often turn milder with rain, so we end up with euphoria for some snow lovers and disappointment for others depending on location. In most places near the North Sea, though, frontal battlegrounds tend to produce rather less than convection off the North Sea.

The Western Side of Wales can also benefit from the Pembrokeshire Dangler...this occurred in November 2005 and brought quite a lot of snowfall.

[Nights King]

Personally I prefer convective snowfall compared to frontal. The simple reason being is heavy snowfalls can occur from E/NE,lys in my location and at times the airmass can be bitterly cold. This means the type of snow is often powdery and the snow ratio is excellent. The lying snow lasted ages during Dec 2009 due to a combination of weak sun, low temps but also the type of snow that had fallen. I often find frontal snowfall is more marginal and at times the dewpoints are much higher compared to a cold convective E,ly.

I like snow which ever direction it is from however in our case an easterly doesn't often produce more than the odd flurry for us here in west and a northerly is also dire as you watch wales block all the showers so for me it has to be an atlantic battleground or channel low scenario. The odds are low like winning like the lottery... but get all your numbers right and you win big! I think it was a week in feb 2009 maybe when we ended up with over 2 foot over a few days from several marginal events. Elevation helps too.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I generally have to rely on troughs from easterly winds, although I am far enough East to get decent snow off convection, (but not as much as near coast)

frontal snow generally marginal for me, (although nothing marginal about 04 Feb this year), channel lows useless, I am too far north

need the low to track across S midlands, like 18-20 Nov 1996, seems like a 1 in 30 year event

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

What is the best scenario for people in nw england?

[cheeky_monkey]

What is the best scenario for people in nw england?

you tell us you live there

[Jackfrost]

I generally have to rely on troughs from easterly winds, although I am far enough East to get decent snow off convection, (but not as much as near coast)

frontal snow generally marginal for me, (although nothing marginal about 04 Feb this year), channel lows useless, I am too far north

need the low to track across S midlands, like 18-20 Nov 1996, seems like a 1 in 30 year event

Have to say I don't envy you people up there. The West and South Midlands seem to struggle more than anywhere else in the UK when it comes to substantial snowfalls.

Easterlies are fairly useless around here. It's not uncommon to get snow from them but the high ground of South and East Wales is normally the Western extent of snow from an Easterly, and by that point it's usually light and patchy.

However, I seem to be in a good position for both streamers on a N/NWly and especially battleground events. Significant snowfalls (3" +) I can remember since 2000, off the top of my head:

Frontal:

March 21 2001

March 11 2004

March 13 2006

February 7-8 2007 (Double event)

Four or five in 2009-10

December 22 2010

Came close twice in February 2012. Perhaps the most frustrating two weeks of weather I can remember.

Streamer:

February 26 2004

November 25 2005

March 1 2006

December 3 2010

December 17 2010

Plus several others from other sources (ie, channel lows and the odd polar low).

Does anybody in South Wales or the Bristol area remember the fantastic Bristol Channel streamer which set up late on the night of December 21st 2009? It was a rare set up, totally unexpected and left us with quite a bit of snow on the ground on Christmas Day.

Also, can anybody remember the late, heavy snowfall on April 14th 1999 and what its source was? Polar low? Channel low? There was also a very substantial fall, I believe, on December 19th 1999. I was only 9 at the time, but I can remember it snowing in the morning but only starting to stick around dusk, but by later that evening we were stuck in town after a day of Christmas shopping with traffic having ground to a halt. December 27th 2000 also stands out in my memory.

Edited September 27, 2012 by Jackfrost

[Weather-history]

What is the best scenario for people in nw england?

This is one of them, unfortunately the video quality is not brilliant.

A stationary front as with early Feb 96

Edited September 27, 2012 by Weather-history

[Met4Cast]

There was a snow event quite a few years back now (sometime between now and 2003) which brought a fair amount of snow to the South-East at least, the snow began in the morning and kept coming down heavily until the early afternoon, I remember because I was at school and the snow stopped almost the second the school closed and a gradual thaw set in.

Probably not much help!

[johnholmes]

What is the best scenario for people in nw england?

It depends on exactly what you mean by NW England. The Stockport area=

the Cheshire Gap shower set up, assuming it is cold enough for showers to fall as snow, polar lows have been known to give considerable snowfall when they pass over or WEST not EAST of the Stockport area. There can be quite a variation between the north and south of Stockport as well, partly dependent on the actual wind flow and partly dependent on your height.

hope that gives you some ideas. I had 21 years experience of winters in that area, Manchester Airport and Bramhall.

1964-1985

Edited September 27, 2012 by johnholmes

[I remember Atlantic 252]

What is the best scenario for people in nw england?

lived there long? Dec 20-22 2009 setup is perfect for you, even Jan 5th 2010

Edited September 27, 2012 by ihatetherain

[cheeky_monkey]

There was a snow event quite a few years back now (sometime between now and 2003) which brought a fair amount of snow to the South-East at least, the snow began in the morning and kept coming down heavily until the early afternoon, I remember because I was at school and the snow stopped almost the second the school closed and a gradual thaw set in.

Probably not much help!

sounds like end of feb beginning of march 2005