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Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2

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What about a winter storm lasting 24 hours? Oh how I have longed for a proper winter storm.

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What about a winter storm lasting 24 hours? Oh how I have longed for a proper winter storm.

Channel low :)

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I'd have to say heavy snow showers too, I agree with them building a lot more excitement. A Thames streamer would be ideal too, as long as it's a proper Thames Streamer and actually comes over land like 2010 - I've never really experienced a decent snowfall from frontal events, being born in the early 90's frontal events have always brought a period of snow followed by rain in my mind so I'm always expecting dissapointment from them.

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My favoured setup is an occlusion stalling from just about any direction.

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Thames streamer!!! Of course heavy showers are good too, frontal snow tends to have warm air behind it, or moves through quickly. But I will take anything. Can't be too fussed due to my location.

still learning so can anyone tell me what a Thames streamer is? am guessing a lot of snow caused by been near a river. I live in Hull which is along the Humber is it possible to get them here what needs to happen to cause then and what are the effects?

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No idea why I've not contributed to this thread as I am a massive cold lover.

However, this year I am expecting a milder than average winter, based purely on my thoughts for this autumn, that being below average temperatures and above average rainfall.

I don't think it seems feasible to have such a long run of below average months in a row.

That's just my way of thinking, but after such a rubbish year of weather, why would winter turn out to be any more than a huge disappointment?

still learning so can anyone tell me what a Thames streamer is? am guessing a lot of snow caused by been near a river. I live in Hull which is along the Humber is it possible to get them here what needs to happen to cause then and what are the effects?

A long line of showers that runs in, or near to the Thames caused by higher SST's creating instability. Same as in the North Sea or Irish Sea really.

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still learning so can anyone tell me what a Thames streamer is? am guessing a lot of snow caused by been near a river. I live in Hull which is along the Humber is it possible to get them here what needs to happen to cause then and what are the effects?

I think you'll find this archived thread dedicated to the Feb 2009 streamer event very helpful - a lot of detail on the event and the synoptic setup smile.pnghttp://forum.netweat...-12nd-feb-2009/

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I'm going to throw this out there and you guys can advise me as to whether this is possible or not?

I would imagine that the best set-up for snow would be an intense almost "tropical storm" type Low coming from the NNE sort of Svalbard direction racing down towards us over the Norwegian sea and picking up more and more moisture and just slamming into the UK and stalling. If the UK was already cold then surely that would have the potential to dump feet and feet of snow. Is this ever possible?

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For me, as a fan of convective type weather and sunshine, I prefer the scenario of sunshine mixed with heavy snow showers- they may be more hit-and-miss but they provide dramatically-changing conditions, and more spectacular cloud formations. I feel that it's a shame that the weak winter sun doesn't generate much convection inland, with showers often restricted to coastal areas, as I think the sort of showery northerlies that we get in April, but with maximum temperatures close to freezing, would be very exciting to watch.

I wouldn't say "no" to a major frontal snow event though, even if it involved snow turning to rain. My main concern is that when we get "marginal" frontal snow events, sometimes the precipitation ends up as rain or sleet throughout and the weather ends up grey, raw and, to my mind, rather depressing. If a showery setup ends up on the wrong side of marginal the result tends to be a mix of sunshine and hail/sleet showers.

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I think you'll find this archived thread dedicated to the Feb 2009 streamer event very helpful - a lot of detail on the event and the synoptic setup smile.pnghttp://forum.netweat...-12nd-feb-2009/

thank you for that I think I understand now lol
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Heavy thundery showers are my favorite as it produces such large amounts of snow. frontal events because of where I am positioned always end up with 10% snow and the rest is sleet or rain which is a big let down.

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No idea why I've not contributed to this thread as I am a massive cold lover.

However, this year I am expecting a milder than average winter, based purely on my thoughts for this autumn, that being below average temperatures and above average rainfall.

I don't think it seems feasible to have such a long run of below average months in a row.

That's just my way of thinking, but after such a rubbish year of weather, why would winter turn out to be any more than a huge disappointment?

A long line of showers that runs in, or near to the Thames caused by higher SST's creating instability. Same as in the North Sea or Irish Sea really.

Thanks for that! I think I'll go any slit my wrists now...!!! crazy.giftease.gif

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I'm going to throw this out there and you guys can advise me as to whether this is possible or not?

I would imagine that the best set-up for snow would be an intense almost "tropical storm" type Low coming from the NNE sort of Svalbard direction racing down towards us over the Norwegian sea and picking up more and more moisture and just slamming into the UK and stalling. If the UK was already cold then surely that would have the potential to dump feet and feet of snow. Is this ever possible?

An intense system like that would probably have a fairly large warm sector associated with it so snowfall would probably be limited to higher ground and transient snowfall across lower levels.

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Hi guys, Just wanted to know if a Thames streamer can affect my area. I live in NW London. I remember last time SE London was hit bad and we got nothing?

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Hi guys, Just wanted to know if a Thames streamer can affect my area. I live in NW London. I remember last time SE London was hit bad and we got nothing?

yea course it can..i was living in Ruislip in Feb 09 and we got a good amount of snow from that event.

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An intense system like that would probably have a fairly large warm sector associated with it so snowfall would probably be limited to higher ground and transient snowfall across lower levels.

Even if it came from all the way up there?

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Even if it came from all the way up there?

I think you are meaning a polar low.

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I think you are meaning a polar low.

thanks, I don't really know what I'm on about lol. New to all this, But as an uneducated guess, I would have assumed that a hurricane type low pressure event but thats come from the north Pole and slammed into us would be the most extreme? Plenty cold and full of moisture

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Hi guys, Just wanted to know if a Thames streamer can affect my area. I live in NW London. I remember last time SE London was hit bad and we got nothing?

Yep, it all depends on the direction of the wind. I had a Thames streamer bring 1 foot of snow in 2010 but the Thames streamer in 2009 gave me about 2 inches whilst London got 8inches, the direction of the flow is key to Thames Streamers and who gets the snowfall from them.

Even if it came from all the way up there?

Low pressure systems are driven by warmer air within the system (very basically speaking, its more complicated) and the more intense the system, the warmer the warm sector. Ideally what we'd want is a weaker, shallower area of Low Pressure coming down, the warm sector, whilst still warmer than the surrounding air would probably be cold enough to keep the snow as snowfall.

Low Pressure systems are risky business when it comes to snowfall, I'd much rather an area of Low Pressure Eastwards to the South of the UK tightening Isobars strengthening winds from the East and giving sufficient forcing for heavy showers/bands of snow to develop from the North Sea.

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In such an intense low scenario even the origin would not help us because of the warmer sector associated with it which would likely mean a rain to snow event at best, additionally with the source being so cold the cold front would likely be fairly dead once it reached England.

The best scenario for me would be a front approaching from the south west and then stalling as it slowly moved east so a October 1987 track, Channel Low tracking too far north. With that said the best single event was 6th January 2010 which saw a front stall as a wave developed from the north, i got 21cm in 10 hours.

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Thanks for that! I think I'll go any slit my wrists now...!!! crazy.giftease.gif

rofl.gif

Obviously no one can predict the weather for winter in September accurately, but after this year's disappointing weather all year round, I am not expecting for a turn of fortunes come late-November!

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One scenario that hasn't been mentioned yet is the situation where we get embedded fronts and troughs in an arctic or continental airstream, which can bring belts of organised snowfall in an otherwise showery regime. This happened widely on the 5th/6th January 2010. The snowfalls over SE Scotland and NE England on the evenings of the 26th and 27th November 2010 were similarly enhanced by weak occluded fronts out in the North Sea. Such disturbances are often still associated with pools of comparitively warm air, but nothing like the warm airmasses that get into the mix around depressions associated with Atlantic fronts.

The 27th January 1996 was a good "easterly" example- many of us saw sunshine and snow showers on the 26th, and then a weak front moved over on the 27th and gave mostly cloudy weather with snow for southern Scotland and the northern half of England.

However many of the biggest snowfalls in central and western Britain, which are sheltered from North Sea convection, have historically arisen from "battleground" events with Atlantic weather systems pushing in and then stalling against cold arctic and/or continental air. In those situations areas on the poleward flank of the fronts can pick up large amounts of snow, although to the south and west of that it will often turn milder with rain, so we end up with euphoria for some snow lovers and disappointment for others depending on location. In most places near the North Sea, though, frontal battlegrounds tend to produce rather less than convection off the North Sea.

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The 16th December also brought the biggest snow event of the winter to the Tyne and Wear area. A small band of rain moved northwards overnight 15th/16th, ahead of the main frontal belt that affected Stoke, and then it retreated southwards, turning to snow as it did so. As a result, Cleadon had a few centimetres of snow, with more than that in some inland places and on higher ground. Showers followed behind off the North Sea although they turned to hail and sleet as a pool of slightly milder air moved in, and this trimmed away some of the snow cover. Nonetheless, there was more than 50% snow cover at Cleadon on the mornings of the 17th and 18th.

All very interesting, but I thought this thread was supposed to be looking forward to Winter 12/13, not looking back at snowfall events in 11/12.

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All very interesting, but I thought this thread was supposed to be looking forward to Winter 12/13, not looking back at snowfall events in 11/12.

Only by looking at the past can we make sense of the future

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All very interesting, but I thought this thread was supposed to be looking forward to Winter 12/13, not looking back at snowfall events in 11/12.

Nothing wrong with talking about past winters, surely? It's not like we can really gauge anything new about the up-coming winter today.

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