Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2

[Methuselah]

I'm only an amateur snow enthusiast (just made this term up lol) and I find it very hard to believe it is possible to predict what Winter will be like from 2-3 months away.

If the evidence is anything to go by, they almost certainly can't...

[Ninman]

I'm only an amateur snow enthusiast (just made this term up lol) and I find it very hard to believe it is possible to predict what Winter will be like from 2-3 months away.

This is the beauty of it. Currently its not possible to predict exactly what the weather willbe like in 3 months time; and this is the golden nuggat that people are trying to reach. From what I can see, there are so many variables/factors that can dictate the weather and this is the challenge that people are tying to overcome.

By trying to understand, we make mistakes, and from these mistakes we learn, which enhances our understanding and allows further development to take place in trying to predict future weather.

[Mark Neal.]

Thanks Daniel, for sharing that link

[garbagebags]

I'm only an amateur snow enthusiast (just made this term up lol) and I find it very hard to believe it is possible to predict what Winter will be like from 2-3 months away.

I think its possible nowaday that they can say what is MORE LIKELY to happen, i.e. cold or mild. But your right, that cant out and out predict it for sure.

[gottolovethisweather]

To me it's all about the trends which can consistently show up within the model runs aforementioned. Without using an analogy of "teaching granny to suck eggs" that is how I personally view the charts and ensembles if attempting to forecast specific periods myself, during the proper winter period.

When most of the professionals (those who I view as extremely knowledgable in this forecasting game) have not even issued a forecast at this range, then we should all take note. Having said this of course, a trend could well be emerging even now but I doubt if the human eye or brain could still interpret a valid forecast from it.

Nevertheless, I am loving the debate and slowly but surely, we are drawing ever closer to the fun and games.

Edited September 26, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[garbagebags]

Like BFTP said, you could be talking about December 16th or possibly December 11th, 2009. The first day the high pressure asserted itself and moved to our north and became established. Charts Below:

As a snow lover, these charts are decidedly grim viewing Literally "worst case scenario" lol

[Liam J]

.

Nevertheless, I am loving the debate and slowly but surely, we are drawing ever closer to the fun and games.

Oh god don't..... I can't take it lol already feels like it's November

Edited September 26, 2012 by Liam J

[Optimus Prime]

As a snow lover, these charts are decidedly grim viewing Literally "worst case scenario" lol

Err both charts produced some decent wintry weather for Scotland lol

[garbagebags]

Err both charts produced some decent wintry weather for Scotland lol

Really? I live in Scotland as was wearing only a Tshirt on that day in December last year. I remember it well, record warmth. Didnt have a single flake where we are in Scotland all winter.

EDIT: Nope Im sorry, I was thinking of Dec 26th, im just going to shut up now, made enough of a fool of myself.

Edited September 26, 2012 by garbagebags

[Chris K]

To be honest, I don't think anyone has intentionally said that they can forecast now whether it will be a mild or cold winter overall.

Sure, there will be plenty of ramping on charts but there has also been plenty of unbiased views on what models are showing in terms of general trends.

I think this thread is a good 'long range forecasting exercise' and it will be interesting to review & compare what the models show now, to what actually occurs durng the winter months.

[garbagebags]

MET Office "APPEAR" to be going for a cold winter. http://www.metoffice...ts-temp-OND.pdf

We expect that the current weak El Niño conditions in the

tropical Pacific will start to disappear by the end of this year,

and they are not expected to influence European and UK

weather significantly during the forecast period. Arctic sea ice

is at its lowest recorded extent, and whilst this could play

some part in determining weather over the UK over the next

few months, as yet there is no clear predictive association.

Sea surface temperatures in the northwest Atlantic are higher

than normal and this favours a tendency towards colder,

atmospheric blocking weather patterns over northwestern

Europe.

The consensus from computer model simulations is for

surface pressure to be higher than average to the north of

the UK during the three-month period, especially in October.

This is consistent with the anomalous sea surface

temperature pattern. Such a pressure distribution favours

weaker than average westerlies or spells of easterly winds,

increasing the risk of colder than average conditions through

the period.

[Kyros]

I'm only an amateur snow enthusiast (just made this term up lol) and I find it very hard to believe it is possible to predict what Winter will be like from 2-3 months away.

Im also a fair weather...Weather fan....of not so fair weather....

[cheeky_monkey]

MET Office "APPEAR" to be going for a cold winter. http://www.metoffice...ts-temp-OND.pdf

We expect that the current weak El Niño conditions in the

tropical Pacific will start to disappear by the end of this year,

and they are not expected to influence European and UK

weather significantly during the forecast period. Arctic sea ice

is at its lowest recorded extent, and whilst this could play

some part in determining weather over the UK over the next

few months, as yet there is no clear predictive association.

Sea surface temperatures in the northwest Atlantic are higher

than normal and this favours a tendency towards colder,

atmospheric blocking weather patterns over northwestern

Europe.

The consensus from computer model simulations is for

surface pressure to be higher than average to the north of

the UK during the three-month period, especially in October.

This is consistent with the anomalous sea surface

temperature pattern. Such a pressure distribution favours

weaker than average westerlies or spells of easterly winds,

increasing the risk of colder than average conditions through

the period.

this is for the October November and December..not all of winter

[Dave Kightley]

this is for the October November and December..not all of winter

Sounds good for the start of it anyway we need a cooler this time of year

[gsteruk]

i would also say that noone here i dont think is seriously saying they can predict what will happen over the winter period, everyone is having fun saying what they maybe suspect, think or hope - but noones prediciting anything - so......chill out folks! :-)

[Dave Kightley]

Although things sound hopeful. I'm sure the charts are programmed this time of year to make an excuse for national newspapers to make stupid headlines

James madden website is very quiet at the moment... I wonder if he's praying that the sun doesnt come out this winter with his Very heavy snow larky

Edited September 26, 2012 by Dave kightley

[Methuselah]

I'm not sure whether the 'heroes' (at least on the rare occasion that they get something right) of LRFs: Corbyn, Madden, Foggit (sadly deceased), Bastardi, et al are trying kid us or themselves, when they make their respective pre-winter pronouncements...?

But, nevertheless, they certainly give the dear-old Press something to write about!

[Gavin Hannah]

I've been off for a day and it seems there is panic around here for some unknown reason lol.

The signals for this winter are good...!

We are in a much better position than we were last autumn. I think all of us were grasping at straws last year.

Any coldies like me, looking at charts for mid winter this far out, will be driven to the point of insanity as they constantly chop and change.

Don't do it lol!!!!

[garbagebags]

I've been off for a day and it seems there is panic around here for some unknown reason lol.

The signals for this winter are good...!

We are in a much better position than we were last autumn. I think all of us were grasping at straws last year.

Any coldies like me, looking at charts for mid winter this far out, will be driven to the point of insanity as they constantly chop and change.

Don't do it lol!!!!

[Geordiesnow]

The signals for this winter are good...!

We are in a much better position than we were last autumn. I think all of us were grasping at straws last year.

I don't usually look at any long range forecasts or trends regarding the winter period so I can't comment on what the models were saying for last winter but whatever poor signals the models were showing last year did not stop Europe having one of its coldest periods for a very long time at the end of Jan/first part of February, the UK were so close to properly receiving that cold air but unfortunately, the edge of the blocking was over the UK and I do feel if things worked out a tad better then peoples impressions of last winter would be all so different.

I don't understand why random cold CFS charts are being posted for and being taken seriously, at the end of the day, its down what the models show before 72 hours that matters but as per ever, it will be interesting and nail biting chasing down any potential cold set ups!

[garbagebags]

I don't usually look at any long range forecasts or trends regarding the winter period so I can't comment on what the models were saying for last winter but whatever poor signals the models were showing last year did not stop Europe having one of its coldest periods for a very long time at the end of Jan/first part of February, the UK were so close to properly receiving that cold air but unfortunately, the edge of the blocking was over the UK and I do feel if things worked out a tad better then peoples impressions of last winter would be all so different.

I don't understand why random cold CFS charts are being posted for and being taken seriously, at the end of the day, its down what the models show before 72 hours that matters but as per ever, it will be interesting and nail biting chasing down any potential cold set ups!

I completely agree, last winter WAS another very very harsh one for "Europe" the UK just missed it by a hairs bredth.

[Suburban Streamer]

I'm not sure whether the 'heroes' (at least on the rare occasion that they get something right) of LRFs: Corbyn, Madden, Foggit (sadly deceased), laminate floori, et al are trying kid us or themselves, when they make their respective pre-winter pronouncements...?

They may well be your heroes of lrf but they are certainly not mine! There's a few long range forecasters that i have a lot of respect for and none of them have made any such 'pronouncements'

[BornFromTheVoid]

I completely agree, last winter WAS another very very harsh one for "Europe" the UK just missed it by a hairs bredth.

Let's no allow the media reports of the February cold spell last year to taint our memories of the whole winter!

For Europe, it was generally a close to average winter overall

With a mild December to January

Balanced by a very cold February

Kind of a reverse of winter 2010/11 for the British Isles

[Gavin Hannah]

I completely agree, last winter WAS another very very harsh one for "Europe" the UK just missed it by a hairs bredth.

But it was that hairs breadth that caused us to miss out for the most part. Last winter at best, IMO, was average for most with spells of cold and warm (mostly mild mush). From a snowsports perspective, it was really bad. The season kept seeing the snow fall then melt just as quickly. Never got established until late in the season.

IF the ENSO had been a tad more neutral, IF the NAO had been -ve etc... we could have joined in the party. But alas, twas not to be.

Edited September 26, 2012 by IBringTheHammer

[PolarWarsaw]

Im not sure what the panic or negativity is about. Not only are we still 3 months away from any kind of 'winter' - no matter what kind of technology is used no accurate or even remotely accurate kind of forecast, theme or prediction can be picked up on. Sure far away signals are available to give us a slight outline of the facts, but how often do we here about 'BBQ summers' in February that are backed up by charts at that point, only to find a summer full of storms and rain. It's exactly the same situation just at a different time of the year.

Why do we all love winter? Snow. Ice and frost are good, but they are secondary. You can almost guarantee 1-2 decent snow events even in the mildest of all winters - lets not panic and just enjoy the ride - seriously.

Edited September 26, 2012 by PolarWarsaw