Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Christmas day CFS style!

I think I will be to busy to cut the Turkey!!

Channel low anyone?

If only.......CFS is teasing us.....more chance of me having nutroast for Xmas dinner....and that is a 0.00001% chanceBFTP

[sebastiaan1973]

Aha, you mean this one

[Radiating Dendrite]

If only.......CFS is teasing us.....more chance of me having nutroast for Xmas dinner....and that is a 0.00001% chanceBFTP

Yep.

Looking through the runs though, it does seem keen on a blocked winter.

Quite a few easterlies are being shown with a southerly tracking jet. I know that many think the model is a waste of time, but it must be reacting to some kind of signal/driver to be consistently chucking out these sorts of charts.

[snowking]

Yep.

Looking through the runs though, it does seem keen on a blocked winter.

Quite a few easterlies are being shown with a southerly tracking jet. I know that many think the model is a waste of time, but it must be reacting to some kind of signal/driver to be consistently chucking out these sorts of charts.

I could be wrong here but I'm pretty sure the CFS did the exact same thing last autumn before an abrupt change in November.

We often talk of a model bias within other NWP models towards zonal conditions (though not all agree). I do wonder whether the CFS has such an issue but in the reverse direction

Edited September 26, 2012 by snowking

[chionomaniac]

Why do you consider this as promising? Because there is small chance for El Nino, it seems we get ENSO-neutral. I read: 'Nonetheless, we find a near doubling of the frequency of SSWs during both El Niño and La Niña winters relative to ENSOâ€neutral winters in the 53â€year observational record: this is a very large signal, and unlikely to be a statistical artifact.'

You mean this part: 'For instance, we find a higher frequency of SSWs during the easterly phase of the QBO, irrespective of ENSO phase'

Promising in the fact that we are at the warmer end of neutral ENSO, close to the EL NIno. I don't think that this is a bad place to be when added with the other teleconnective factors - such as eQBO. I suspect that the eQBO could drop off quite markedly in the coming month pushing the easterlies dow to the troposphere as well in a downwelling phase, especially over the Pacific.

[Radiating Dendrite]

I could be wrong here but I'm pretty sure the CFS did the exact same thing last autumn before an abrupt change in November.

We often talk of a model bias within other NWP models towards zonal conditions (though not all agree). I do wonder whether the CFS has such an issue but in the reverse direction

Nope.

I remember looking at the CFS last Autumn and it was certainly not as bullish in terms of blocking.

It does tend to over react, but even a slightly watered down version of what it is showing currently would mean a great winter for us here in the UK.

[snowking]

Nope.

I remember looking at the CFS last Autumn and it was certainly not as bullish in terms of blocking.

It does tend to over react, but even a slightly watered down version of what it is showing currently would mean a great winter for us here in the UK.

Fair enough I'm more than happy to be proven wrong on that account!

[kold weather]

Typically I've found that SST's of 0.7-1.2C+ tend to lead to the most -ve NAO winters, so weak El nino's/borderline moderates seem to have the best response. Once beyond 1.2C I'd imagine the extra energy is enough to over-ride the positives that El nino's can give.

[Frank Trough]

Christmas day CFS style!

I think I will be to busy to cut the Turkey!!

Channel low anyone?

when was the last time there was a proper channel low?! surely we're due one aren't we?

[Mark Neal.]

when was the last time there was a proper channel low?! surely we're due one aren't we?

I can remember the charts in Nov 2010, showed a Channel low moving up but then after a few runs ditched the idea all together, i was let down, but i was new to model watching, so understandable, nowadays a BIG pinch of salt is taken lol

[garbagebags]

when was the last time there was a proper channel low?! surely we're due one aren't we?

last weekend!? No?

[Frank Trough]

last weekend!? No?

ha ha! yes, i suppose it was! what i really meant was when was the last 1963-esque snowy channel low? I imagine defining "channel low" might not be that straightforward...

[Tony47]

The thing about the depressions giving the heavy snowfalls at the end of Dec 62 and beginning of Jan 63 is that they weren't your normal small scale lows moving from west to east along the channel. They were in fact very large deep low pressure systems coming up from Biscay, then stopping before eventually filling over the Channel because the strength of the Arctic/Scandi high was too great. They resembled in origins the one that has tracked up and over us this week but this latest one of course met no resistance. They contained huge amounts of moisture and, because the snow was falling in a surface temperature around minus 2 degrees C in a gale force easterly wind, the deposit was typically between 6 and 9 inches with considerable drifting.

I lived in Birmingham at the time and, although we didn't get as much snow as some in the south midlands and south of England it was still extremely impressive.

Tony 472 - un unapologetic winter/snow fanatic

[Frank Trough]

The thing about the depressions giving the heavy snowfalls at the end of Dec 62 and beginning of Jan 63 is that they weren't your normal small scale lows moving from west to east along the channel. They were in fact very large deep low pressure systems coming up from Biscay, then stopping before eventually filling over the Channel because the strength of the Arctic/Scandi high was too great. They resembled in origins the one that has tracked up and over us this week but this latest one of course met no resistance. They contained huge amounts of moisture and, because the snow was falling in a surface temperature around minus 2 degrees C in a gale force easterly wind, the deposit was typically between 6 and 9 inches with considerable drifting.

I lived in Birmingham at the time and, although we didn't get as much snow as some in the south midlands and south of England it was still extremely impressive.

Tony 472 - un unapologetic winter/snow fanatic

that's very true - and interesting. Would like to experience something like myself- can't see it.

i'll slightly re-phrase my question in the light of that - when was the last time a normal small scale low moved from west to east along the channel? (in winter)

Edited September 26, 2012 by Pharaoh Clutchstraw

[garbagebags]

that's very true - and interesting. Would like to experience something like myself- can't see it.

i'll slightly re-phrase my question in the light of that - when was the last time a normal small scale low moved from west to east along the channel? (in winter)

I really don't know why but I want to say December 11th 2011. Can someone verify this for me? Just seems to be in my head.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I really don't know why but I want to say December 11th 2011. Can someone verify this for me? Just seems to be in my head.

You may be thinking of 16th December 2011. More of a secondary LP spawned off main torugh. At work can't post charts

BFTP

Edited September 26, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Mark Neal.]

Hi guys, i would love to view charts from previous winters, weather events which have now gone... Is there any sites which i could view, would be very grateful if you could help. Mark.

[Met4Cast]

im sure all the animals and the flowers etc do have more idea of whats in store for us in each season, just a shame they cant tell us about it lol

I don't believe for a second plants know of the future weather, growing more berries etc.. I fully believe plants re-act based on previous weather, if the weather has been good for growing berries then more berries will be able to grow.

Animals act on instinct however so they could be picking up on signals we as humans just can't see, who knows! I can't see it being a bad thing that the squirrels are going nuts, pun intended.

Hi guys, i would love to view charts from previous winters, weather events which have now gone... Is there any sites which i could view, would be very grateful if you could help. Mark.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsreaeur.html

[EML Network]

I really can't see what all the fuss is about in relation to the CFS charts.

People should be looking at the 850 Uppers.

The CFS has consistently shown a brief cold snap Mid-Late November with the -8 to -12 Uppers covering most of the country at some point during that period, but it's a very short lived affair.

the December CFS has CONSISTENTLY had the UK under -2 to +10 uppers for the vast majority of the month, with the East having the occasional -5 to -8 towards the end of the month.

so on that basis, the CFS is performing consistently and the likely outcome is for an early blast of Winter mid - late November, and a mild December.

Looking beyond that at this stage is a pointless exercise as far as I'm concerned

[Radiating Dendrite]

I really can't see what all the fuss is about in relation to the CFS charts.

People should be looking at the 850 Uppers.

The CFS has consistently shown a brief cold snap Mid-Late November with the -8 to -12 Uppers covering most of the country at some point during that period, but it's a very short lived affair.

the December CFS has CONSISTENTLY had the UK under -2 to +10 uppers for the vast majority of the month, with the East having the occasional -5 to -8 towards the end of the month.

so on that basis, the CFS is performing consistently and the likely outcome is for an early blast of Winter mid - late November, and a mild December.

Looking beyond that at this stage is a pointless exercise as far as I'm concerned

Not sure I agree with all of that.

It has consistently shown blocking and to be honest that is the only signal we can take from it this far out.

Upper temps could be anything, it all depends on the source of the air, depth of cold pools etc etc etc

We shall soon see.

[NorthernRab]

I really can't see what all the fuss is about in relation to the CFS charts.

People should be looking at the 850 Uppers.

The CFS has consistently shown a brief cold snap Mid-Late November with the -8 to -12 Uppers covering most of the country at some point during that period, but it's a very short lived affair.

the December CFS has CONSISTENTLY had the UK under -2 to +10 uppers for the vast majority of the month, with the East having the occasional -5 to -8 towards the end of the month.

so on that basis, the CFS is performing consistently and the likely outcome is for an early blast of Winter mid - late November, and a mild December.

Looking beyond that at this stage is a pointless exercise as far as I'm concerned

I'm going to echo Radiating Dentrite's comments; the only "positive" (from a Coldies perspective) consistent signal is for occasional periods of blocking. Also, much of the cold shown is coming from the NE, not the east.

[Met4Cast]

I really can't see what all the fuss is about in relation to the CFS charts.

People should be looking at the 850 Uppers.

The CFS has consistently shown a brief cold snap Mid-Late November with the -8 to -12 Uppers covering most of the country at some point during that period, but it's a very short lived affair.

the December CFS has CONSISTENTLY had the UK under -2 to +10 uppers for the vast majority of the month, with the East having the occasional -5 to -8 towards the end of the month.

so on that basis, the CFS is performing consistently and the likely outcome is for an early blast of Winter mid - late November, and a mild December.

Looking beyond that at this stage is a pointless exercise as far as I'm concerned

The Met Office probability maps have also consistently called for blocking and below average temperatures for the same period.. a model being consistent is usually a good thing but for all we know, either one of them could be consistently wrong

[CanadaAl]

I really don't know why but I want to say December 11th 2011. Can someone verify this for me? Just seems to be in my head.

Like BFTP said, you could be talking about December 16th or possibly December 11th, 2009. The first day the high pressure asserted itself and moved to our north and became established. Charts Below:

[Methuselah]

The Met Office probability maps have also consistently called for blocking and below average temperatures for the same period.. a model being consistent is usually a good thing but for all we know, either one of them could be consistently wrong

Or, and I suspect more likely, they'll all be inconsistently right/wrong to varying/differing degrees?

[SnowRules]

I'm only an amateur snow enthusiast (just made this term up lol) and I find it very hard to believe it is possible to predict what Winter will be like from 2-3 months away.