Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2

[Isolated Frost]

Superb post BFTV. Very informative and I always love the use of composites.

GP would be proud

[feb1991blizzard]

25th September 1885 snow fell across high ground in London

I would have thought that it would have been late on in the day when the snow fell judging by the charts.

Thanks to GP, Born from the void, Steve Murr and many others too for all the excellent research and great informative posts today.

Edited September 25, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[bobbydog]

BFTV

many thanks for all that work. This kind of work is just what I hope others may try. Eventually, no idea how long, someone or some centre, will get enough data that fits to be able to give a reasonable idea of the winter season well before it starts. Maybe also a similar prediction will become something for the other seasons.

exactly john, this was my point about human input the other night- it makes all the difference. BFTV has picked up the gauntlet and is doing an excellent job. if i had the technical knowledge, i would have had a go myself!

[mcweather]

I wouldn't be banking on this winter being an El Nino one. The -PDO is agressively strong and has full atmospheric coupling. We can see this in the strong residual SST warm anomalies in the Sea of Japan and in the NW Atlantic off Newfoundland. These anomalies are strong and +ve zonal wind anomalies across the tropics extremely weak. That has severely dented the probability of a warm ENSO phase this winter, indeed the prospects of us going back into Nina phase in the spring have increased over the last week or so.

Initial analysis of the QBO suggests a weaker than normal polar vortex this winter, with an interesting focus on increased probability of a disruption of the vortex late November or early December and again around New Year. The profile of hemispheric SSTAs is also pointing to a -ve height anomaly across Europe. All eyes on October NH snowcover. Should come in above average if we are on course for a cold winter.

Intersting stuff GP. Like many on here I await your winter forecast with interest.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Interestingly enough BFTV, I read a paper this summer that suggested that we are more likely to get a SSW during an ENSO year, whether that be an El Nino or La NIna.

However, I am coming to the realisation that SSW's are more hit and miss and that we would rather see a period of warm strat temps rather than one off major warmings. A case of better not have the vortex at full pelt and having to slow it down , but rather that it never reaches full power in the first place.

Have you a link for that chio?

I guess 2010/11 is an example of how a moderate to strong El Nino phase doesn't always mean a mild winter overall, and 1955/56 demonstrating the same for La Nina.

[bobbydog]

Have you a link for that chio?

I guess 2010/11 is an example of how a moderate to strong El Nino phase doesn't always mean a mild winter overall, and 1955/56 demonstrating the same for La Nina.

i'm sure i said something like that earlier.... like i've said before- trying to find correlations to 'good' winters, not just 'cold CET' winters, is a better way of looking at it. keep it up and don't doubt yourself!

Edited September 25, 2012 by bobbydog

[Met4Cast]

I would have thought that it would have been late on in the day when the snow fell judging by the charts.

Thanks to GP, Born from the void, Steve Murr and many others too for all the excellent research and great informative posts today.

Goes to show how times change, that chart nowadays would probably struggle to bring snow into Scotland, let alone London!

[feb1991blizzard]

Goes to show how times change, that chart nowadays would probably struggle to bring snow into Scotland, let alone London!

To be fair, looking at the uppers and the time of year i am suprised it brought snow into london then, i think even high ground in london is only about 350ft at the most.

[Met4Cast]

To be fair, looking at the uppers and the time of year i am suprised it brought snow into london then, i think even high ground in london is only about 350ft at the most.

Yeah just had a look! Surely the reports must be wrong, thats barely -2c uppers by the looks of it with the -5c isotherm North of Scotland.. must have taken something very, very special in the finer details if its true

[Jackfrost]

I really don't think we'll better December 2010 for a long time, at least in terms of cold. I have a vivid (and fond, despite the agony) memory of going out to the car in my pyjamas one morning to check the temperature. I knew it was cold, but -17C was not what I was expecting.

The River Taff froze in the centre of Cardiff. Nothing like the iced river in Scotland two pages back, but bearing in mind that Cardiff is a Southwestern coastal city, and these pictures were taken less than a mile from the open sea.

http://newsguv.com/w...ec-2010-003.jpg

http://upload.wikime...rTaffFrozen.jpg

Meanwhile, I walked out to the centre of a local reservoir. Stupid thing to do, I know. And don't get my started on the 5 foot icicles, and an accident I had on Christmas day involving ice and a bottle of wine in my hand. Eek. Although having 10 inches of snow on Christmas Day remaining from the 15 inch fall of the 17th and a top up a few days later made it magical, and we also had lying snow at Christmas 2009. And that's what helped to make Christmas 2011 extremely depressing.

Anyway, enough of my memories. On with Autumn. I'm looking forward to the cold October which seems to be in the running. Haven't had one since, what, 2003?

Edited September 25, 2012 by Jackfrost

[Cwmbran Eira]

Worst September floods & storms since 1981.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/19722443

We know what followed then.

Another sign?

I know. No 2 years are the same. But another straw to clutch.

Edited September 25, 2012 by Cwmbran Eira

[ZONE 51]

The latest ENSO outlook is here http://www.cpc.ncep....s-fcsts-web.pdf

ENSO neutral conditions, with a short period of borderline El Nino looks most likely for the Winter and into next Spring.

It won't prevent a cold winter. PDO is in cold phase.

On a note from nature, something i spotted tuesday evening that was interesting, a large amount of birds flying northwest high up, i remember the same thing around this time 2010, but not 2011, and also the squirrels are running around very active, this also in 2010 not 2011, i think this means something.

[gsteruk]

im sure all the animals and the flowers etc do have more idea of whats in store for us in each season, just a shame they cant tell us about it lol

[ZONE 51]

It's how they know if they do that we need to find out. Another thing is that the whole summer here has been noticably cold nights, only a few warm nights, and many i could see my breath! There are many factors and reasons why i expect a cold late autumn and winter, i'm finding it difficult to actually find indicators of a warm autumn/winter, i will add all this in a more informative post at some point and what i have been looking at for my forecast i posted in the seasonal thread.

It would be good if more posters could do an autumn/winter forecast, just write what you expect, you don't have to give reasons or any data(this can put some off posting a forecast) maybe break the months into two halfs, or say early,mid,late month. Whatever way you do it please have a go!

Edited September 26, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[chionomaniac]

Have you a link for that chio?

I guess 2010/11 is an example of how a moderate to strong El Nino phase doesn't always mean a mild winter overall, and 1955/56 demonstrating the same for La Nina.

Happy reading!

http://www.columbia....ni-GRL-2011.pdf

Notably, during El Niño the stratosphere is warmer than

during ENSOâ€neutral winters, and the polar vortex is weaker

Promising.

http://www.columbia....012-inpress.pdf

Edited September 26, 2012 by chionomaniac

[dryjoy]

Many thanks to all those who have already posted their thoughts about the coming winter in this thread.

I am one of those who only tends to hang around reading on here during winter, and disappears from about March - late October, and up until now I've only ever posted in the regional threads when the weather gets exciting.

I'm not sure what brought me to the forum earlier this year, I suspect it has to do with the disappointment of last year, and my yearnings for winter brought about by the changing seasons.

I'm completely addicted to this thread already, but I am considering trying to tear myself away and forget about it for while, and perhaps come back in late October. It's agony, hoping for an exciting, memorable winter, hanging off every word that gives me hope yet knowing that it's really way too early for any meaningful forecasts.

Can I do it though? Can I really give up my addiction to this thread for another month?

[Weather-history]

To be fair, looking at the uppers and the time of year i am suprised it brought snow into london then, i think even high ground in london is only about 350ft at the most.

You can read about it here

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/68103-earliest-london-snowfall-september-1885/

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

BFTV

Interesting stuff. Something I want to throw in. During 20th century I checked winter CET against strong El Nino, weak el nino, neutral, weak la nina, strong la nina. The winter CET came up as 50/50 over 20th century. However, with El Nino in last 30 years of 20th century mod to strong el nino came up as bias against cold winters. What affected this? +ve PDO is one reason I attributed but pdo was +ve early part of 20th century. Then there was sunspot activity, cycle 22/3 were very high and may also have attributed to last 30 year bias. It may not be, but the bias was there.

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

GP

I posted elsewhere last 'possible re-emergence of La Nina anyone?'. Interesting you've seen the El Nino not getting off the ground currently, I don't think it will and I think the perturbation cycle we are in since Feb 2007 which has a phase of 'la nina' domination is contributing to this.

BFTP

[Radiating Dendrite]

Christmas day CFS style!

I think I will be to busy to cut the Turkey!!

Channel low anyone?

Edited September 26, 2012 by Radiating Dendrite

[garbagebags]

Sea Ice finally growing today.

[beng]

Christmas day CFS style!

I think I will be to busy to cut the Turkey!!

Channel low anyone?

Wish I could bank that.

On el nino - I think it looks pretty unlikely now. I've been following the sub surface data for the last couple of months and basically the warm pool is really disappearing; at the same time a cold pool is replacing it. If anything weak la nina conditions looks possible by winter time, although it probably won't be low enough to be officially recorded.

http://www.pmel.noaa...del/disdel.html

No doubt this evolution is going to cause the seasonal models even more grief than normal.

One other thing of note is the impact of Nadine on the Atlantic SSTs -

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomnight.current.gif

Something of a tripole (Warm/cold/Warm) pattern developing - which would be supportive of a winter negative NAO - although we have several more months to go - so it could easily change at this stage.

Edited September 26, 2012 by beng

[sebastiaan1973]

Happy reading!

http://www.columbia....ni-GRL-2011.pdf

Notably, during El Niño the stratosphere is warmer than

during ENSOâ€neutral winters, and the polar vortex is weaker

Promising.

http://www.columbia....012-inpress.pdf

Why do you consider this as promising? Because there is small chance for El Nino, it seems we get ENSO-neutral. I read: 'Nonetheless, we find a near doubling of the frequency of SSWs during both El Niño and La Niña winters relative to ENSOâ€neutral winters in the 53â€year observational record: this is a very large signal, and unlikely to be a statistical artifact.'

You mean this part: 'For instance, we find a higher frequency of SSWs during the easterly phase of the QBO, irrespective of ENSO phase'

[gottolovethisweather]

Sea Ice finally growing today.

And all in only one day.

As I said in a post, way back in the other thread, the fact we are now past the Autumn Equinox, the only way forward is for cooler conditions (bar the odd blip) and ice, ice baby to begin to encroach the UK.

Loving the analysis from the vastly superior intellectual types on here.

Edited September 26, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Radiating Dendrite]

Why do you consider this as promising? Because there is small chance for El Nino, it seems we get ENSO-neutral. I read: 'Nonetheless, we find a near doubling of the frequency of SSWs during both El Niño and La Niña winters relative to ENSOâ€neutral winters in the 53â€year observational record: this is a very large signal, and unlikely to be a statistical artifact.'

You mean this part: 'For instance, we find a higher frequency of SSWs during the easterly phase of the QBO, irrespective of ENSO phase'

But as chino was saying yesterday, a warmer strat is likely to be more beneficial than a cold strat with the odd SSW event.