Arctic Ice Data And Stats.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to August 6th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 6,220,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 6,067,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,659,000km2, an increase from -1,462,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +63,000km2, a decrease from +272,000km2 last week. We're currently 3rd lowest on record, up from 4th last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -107.4k/day, compared to the long term average of -79.4k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -77.5k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -66.0k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -98.9k/day.

The extent loss so far this August is the 2nd largest on record. To achieve the largest monthly loss, a drop of at least 85.1k/day is required (requiring ~85.8k/day with with single day values), while the smallest loss requires a drop less than 23.7k/day (<19.1k with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 45.0k/day (~42.3k/day with single day values).

The extent loss in July was the 18th smallest on record, while the average extent was the 3rd lowest on record.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to August 13^th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 5,694,000km² while the 1 day extent is at 5,622,000km².

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,723,000km², an increase from -1,659,000km² last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +229,000km², an increase from +63,000km² last week. We're currently 3^rd lowest on record, the same as last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -75.2k/day, compared to the long term average of -66.0k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -98.9k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -53.7k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -70.1k/day.

The extent loss so far this August is the 6^th largest on record. To achieve the largest monthly loss, a drop of at least 88.9k/day is required (requiring ~95.4k/day with with single day values), while the smallest loss requires a drop less than 3.7k/day (+0.03k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 33.3k/day (~33.0k/day with single day values).

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to August 20^th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 5,186,000km² while the 1 day extent is at 5,022,000km².

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,855,000km², an increase from -1,723,000km² last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +212,000km², a decrease from +229,000km² last week. We're currently 3^rd lowest on record, the same as last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -72.5k/day, compared to the long term average of -53.0k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -70.1k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -44.4k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -60.1k/day.

The extent loss so far this August is the 5^th largest on record. To achieve the largest monthly loss, a drop of at least 99.1k/day is required (requiring ~103.1k/day with with single day values), while the smallest loss requires an increase of at least 40.2k/day (+67.4k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 8.3k/day (increase of 8.1k/day with single day values).

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to August 27^th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 4,800,000km² while the 1 day extent is at 4,537,000km².

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,930,000km², an increase from -1,855,000km² last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +247,000km², an increase from +212,000km² last week. We're currently 2^nd lowest on record, up from 3^rd lowest last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -55.1k/day, compared to the long term average of -44.4k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -60.1k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -38.9k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -45.2k/day.

The extent loss so far this August is the 5^th largest on record. To achieve the largest monthly loss, a drop of at least 176.3k/day is required (requiring ~221.0k/day with with single day values), while the smallest loss requires an increase of at least 207.0k/day (+545.3k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires an increase of 73.7k/day (increase of 278.8k/day with single day values).

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to September 3^rd

The current 5 day trailing average is on 4,322,000km² while the 1 day extent is at 4,263,000km².

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -2,136,000km², an increase from -1,930,000km² last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +212,000km², an increase from +85,000km² last week. We're currently 2^nd lowest on record, the same as last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -68.8k/day, compared to the long term average of -38.9k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -45.2k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -23.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -28.5k/day.

The extent change so far this September is the most negative on record. To achieve the largest monthly loss, a drop of at least 5.9k/day is required (requiring -3.9k/day with with single day values), while the largest gain requires an increase of at least 34.1k/day (+39.1k/day with single day values) and an average change requires an increase of 12.7k/day (increase of 16.1k/day with single day values).

The extent loss in August was the 3^rd largest on record, while the average extent was the 3^rd lowest on record.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to September 10th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 4,137,000km² while the 1 day extent is at 4,160,000km².

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -2,159,000km², an increase from -2,136,000km² last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +100,000km², an increase from +85,000km² last week. We're currently 2^nd lowest on record, the same as last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -26.3k/day, compared to the long term average of -23.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -28.5k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -1.4k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -2.2k/day.

The extent change so far this September is the 6^th most negative on record. To achieve the largest monthly loss, an increase of less than 1.4k/day is required (requiring ~+0.8k/day with with single day values), while the largest gain requires an increase of at least 55.2k/day (>+60k/day with single day values) and an average change requires an increase of 26.4k/day (increase of 28.1k/day with single day values).

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to September 17^th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 4,350,000km² while the 1 day extent is at 4,309,000km².

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,937,000km², a decrease from -2,159,000km² last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +328,000km², an increase from +85,000km² last week. We're currently 3^rd lowest on record, down from 2^nd lowest last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +30.3k/day, compared to the long term average of -1.4k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -2.2k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +21.5k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +18.5k/day.

The extent change so far this September is the 10^th least negative on record. To achieve the largest monthly loss, an drop of at least 14.2k/day is required (requiring -13.1k/day with with single day values), while the largest gain requires an increase of at least 68.6k/day (>+84.6k/day with single day values) and an average change requires an increase of 24.3k/day (increase of +32.4k/day with single day values).

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to September 24^th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 4,690,000km² while the 1 day extent is at 4,899,000km².

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,747,000km², a decrease from -1,937,000km² last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +539,000km², an increase from +328,000km² last week. We're currently 6^th lowest on record, down from 3^rd lowest last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +48.6k/day, compared to the long term average of +21.5k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +18.5k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +50.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +37.8k/day.

The extent change so far this September is the 4^th most positive on record. To achieve the largest monthly loss, a drop of at least 87.4k/day is required (requiring -183.4k/day with with single day values), while the largest gain requires an increase of at least 98.7k/day (>+85.2k/day with single day values) and an average change requires a drop of 4.1k/day (drop of 58.5k/day with single day values).

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to October 1^st

The current 5 day trailing average is on 5,192,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 5,281,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,596,000km², a decrease from -1,747,000km² last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +776,000km², an increase from +539,000km² last week. We're currently 6^th lowest on record, the same as last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +71.7k/day, compared to the long term average of +50.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +37.8k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +92.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +67.7k/day.

The extent increase so far this October is the 4^th smallest on record. To achieve the largest gain, an increase of at least 139.4k/day is required (requiring at least +146.1k/day with with single day values), while the smallest gain requires an increase of less than 51.1k/day (+51.6k/day with single day values) and an average gain requires an increase of 90.7k/day ( 94.0k/day with single day values).

(Note that the graphs above don't show 2016 as there's only 1 point on each graph)

The extent change in September was the 3^rd largest on record, while the average extent was the 3^rd lowest on record.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to October 8^th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 5,350,000km² while the 1 day extent is at 5,405,000km².

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -2,083,000km², an increase from -1,596,000km² last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +460,000km², a decrease from +776,000km² last week. We're currently 3^rd lowest on record, up from 6^th lowest last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +22.6k/day, compared to the long term average of +92.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +67.7k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +94.0k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +88.0k/day.

The extent increase so far this October is the smallest on record. To achieve the largest gain, an increase of at least 174.9k/day is required (requiring at least +188.8k/day with with single day values), while the smallest gain requires an increase of less than 59.8k/day (less than 62.9k/day with single day values) and an average gain requires an increase of 111.4k/day (119.4k/day with single day values).

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to October 15^th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 5,570,000km² while the 1 day extent is at 5,736,000km².

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -2,520,000km², an increase from -2,083,000km² last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +63,000km², a decrease from +460,000km² last week. We're currently 3rd lowest on record, the same as last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +31.4k/day, compared to the long term average of +94.0k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +88.0k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +93.4k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +141.3k/day.

The extent increase so far this October is the smallest on record. To achieve the largest gain, an increase of at least 237.6k/day is required (requiring at least +259.7k/day with with single day values), while the smallest gain requires an increase of less than 72.2k/day (less than 70.7k/day with single day values) and an average gain requires an increase of 146.4k/day (155.4k/day with single day values).

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to October 22^nd

The current 5 day trailing average is on 6,279,000km² while the 1 day extent is at 6,583,000km².

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -2,466,000km², a decrease from -2,520,000km² last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -217,000km², a change from +63,000km² last week. We're currently lowest on record, up from 3^rd lowest last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +101.3k/day, compared to the long term average of +93.4k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +141.3k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +81.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +172.2k/day.

The extent increase so far this October is the smallest on record. To achieve the largest gain, an increase of at least 343.6k/day is required (requiring at least +398.4k/day with with single day values), while the smallest gain requires an increase of less than 49.7k/day (less than 20.4k/day with single day values) and an average gain requires an increase of 181.4k/day (189.8k/day with single day values).

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to October 29^th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 7,028,000km² while the 1 day extent is at 7,111,000km².

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -2,284,000km², a decrease from -2,466,000km² last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -673,000km², an increase from -217,000km² last week. We're currently lowest on record, the same as last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +107.0k/day, compared to the long term average of +81.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +172.2k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +82.7k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +134.4k/day.

The extent increase so far this October is the 6^th smallest on record. To achieve the largest gain, an increase of at least 1171.2k/day is required (requiring at least +3803.4k/day with with single day values), while the smallest gain requires a loss more than than 151.1k/day (more than 604.1k/day with single day values) and an average gain requires an increase of 441.8k/day (1372.4k/day with single day values).

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to November 5^th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 7,511,000km² while the 1 day extent is at 7,858,000km².

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -2,380,000km², an increase from -2,284,000km² last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -1,130,000km², an increase from -673,000km² last week. We're currently lowest on record, the same as last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +69.0k/day, compared to the long term average of +82.7k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +134.4k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +61.7k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +77.8k/day.

The extent increase so far this November is the 17^th largest on record. To achieve the largest gain, an increase of at least 98.5k/day is required (at least +91.9k/day with with single day values), while the smallest gain requires an increase of less than 31.1k/day (less than 18.7k/day with single day values) and an average gain requires an increase of 65.9k/day (56.5k/day with single day values).

The extent change in October was the 2^nd smallest on record, while the average extent was the 3^rd lowest on record.

  

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to November 12^th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 8,433,000km² while the 1 day extent is at 8,616,000km².

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,891,000km², a decrease from -2,380,000km² last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -753,000km², a decrease from -1,130,000km² last week. We're currently lowest on record, the same as last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +131.6k/day, compared to the long term average of +61.7k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +77.8k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +68.0k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +80.2k/day.

The extent increase so far this November is the 2^nd largest on record. To achieve the largest gain, an increase of at least 85.5k/day is required (at least +84.7k/day with with single day values), while the smallest gain requires a loss of at least 8.1k/day (more than 20.5k/day with single day values) and an average gain requires an increase of 40.3k/day (33.9k/day with single day values).

[Blessed Weather]

An interesting graph from Wipneus that shows the Jan to Dec 'Global Sea Ice Area' going back to 1978. That's an incredible deviation from the 'normal' growth of sea ice you would expect at this time of year when compared to the last 38 years.

[jvenge]

11 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

An interesting graph from Wipneus that shows the Jan to Dec 'Global Sea Ice Area' going back to 1978. That's an incredible deviation from the 'normal' growth of sea ice you would expect at this time of year when compared to the last 38 years.

Hi,

Towards the end of August and start of September, there was a sudden melting event in the Antarctic. This has brought down the average significantly and because of the time of year it is down there, there isn't anything that can reverse it, but perhaps some weather events could help slow it, who knows. 

This is compounded further by extremely sluggish growth of Arctic ice in October. You will likely find by mid December it will be much closer to "normal" or a few deviations away from it. 

Perhaps as time goes on there will be a paper to explain the Antarctic one and if it was responsible for the unusual cold in Australia or not.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to November 19^th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 8,613,000km² while the 1 day extent is at 8,560,000km².

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -2,166,000km², an increase from -1,891,000km² last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -1,143,000km², an increase from -753,000km² last week. We're currently lowest on record, the same as last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +28.7k/day, compared to the long term average of +68.0k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +80.2k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +65.8k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +83.6k/day.

The extent increase so far this November is the 8^th largest on record. To achieve the largest increase, a gain of at least 121.6k/day is required (at least +156.7k/day with with single day values), while the smallest increase requires a loss of at least 31.5k/day (more than 30.3k/day with single day values) and an average increase requires a gain of 47.7k/day (66.5k/day with single day values).

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to November 26^th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 9,199,000km² while the 1 day extent is at 9,530,000km².

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -2,061,000km², a decrease from -2,166,000km² last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -1,134,000km², an increase from -1,114,000km² last week. We're currently lowest on record, the same as last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +80.8k/day, compared to the long term average of +65.8k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +83.6k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +83.5k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +81.6k/day.

The extent increase so far this November is the 7^th largest on record. To achieve the largest increase, a gain of at least 193.0k/day is required (at least +220.4k/day with with single day values), while the smallest increase requires a loss of at least -227.8k/day (more than 620.9k/day with single day values) and an average increase requires a loss of 10.1k/day (185.8k/day with single day values).

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to December 3^rd

The current 5 day trailing average is on 10,130,000km² while the 1 day extent is at 10,364,000km².

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,715,000km², a decrease from -2,061,000km² last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -774,000km², a decrease from -1,134,000km² last week. We're currently lowest on record, the same as last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +133.0k/day, compared to the long term average of +83.5k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +81.6k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +80.2k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +97.6k/day.

The extent increase so far this December is the largest on record. To achieve the largest increase, a gain of at least 87.2k/day is required (at least +84.8k/day with with single day values), while the smallest increase requires a gain of less than 36.4k/day (less than 30.2k/day with single day values) and an average increase requires a gain of 56.2k/day (51.5k/day with single day values).

The extent change in November was the 2^nd largest on record, while the average extent was the lowest on record.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to December 10^th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 10,747,000km² while the 1 day extent is at 11,046,000km².

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,659,000km², a decrease from -1,715,000km² last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -841,000km², an increase from -774,000km² last week. We're currently lowest on record, the same as last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +88.2k/day, compared to the long term average of +80.2k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +97.6k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +71.8k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +67.8k/day.

The extent increase so far this December is the 6^th largest on record. To achieve the largest increase, a gain of at least 86.9k/day is required (at least +80.2k/day with with single day values), while the smallest increase requires a gain of less than 19.1k/day (less than 5.4k/day with single day values) and an average increase requires a gain of 45.6k/day (34.6k/day with single day values).

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card/Report-Card-2016

Quite a few records broken over 2016?

[Blessed Weather]

NOAA Climate team have produced a fascinating animation of how the Arctic Sea Ice has waxed and (very much) waned from 1990 to 2016.

"This animation tracks the relative amount of ice of different ages from 1990 through early November 2016. Seasonal ice is darkest blue. Ice that is 9 or more years old is white. Video produced by the Climate.gov team, based on NOAA and NASA data provided by Mark Tschudi, University of Colorado-Boulder."

Watch the video here: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/old-ice-arctic-vanishingly-rare

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to December 17^th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 11,582,000km² while the 1 day extent is at 11,762,000km².

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,261,000km², a decrease from -1,659,000km² last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -397,000km², a decrease from -841,000km² last week. We're currently lowest on record, the same as last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +119.3k/day, compared to the long term average of +71.8k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +67.8k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +56.4k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +76.1k/day.

The extent increase so far this December is the largest on record. To achieve the largest increase, a gain of at least 70.5k/day is required (at least +67.4k/day with with single day values), while the smallest increase requires a loss of more than 31.0k/day (more than 51.1k/day with single day values) and an average increase requires a gain of 8.7k/day (loss of 4.9k/day with single day values).

[Thundery wintry showers]

Aye, looks like the phenomenally low sea ice extent of late-November, and the relatively favourable synoptics for cold pooling north of about 75N since the last week of November, has led to an unusually rapid growth in early to mid-December.  Temperatures across the Arctic Ocean have however remained anomalously high, probably as a consequence of the anomalously low sea ice extent.

I expect the rate of increase to slow during the last third of December, though the models have tended to tone down the input of warmer air from the Barents/Kara area up towards the North Pole in the last couple of days.  We'll probably see a few days of much slower increase leading up to Christmas and then a resumption of fast sea ice growth in the last week of December.  For December as a whole, I expect that we will probably be overtaken by 2006 but come in with the second highest rate of sea ice growth.