Arctic Ice Data And Stats.

[Polar Maritime]

Arctic continued warming in 2013

Over the past few years, scientists and observers interested in the state of the Arctic Ocean have focused on one detail as a way of understanding how dire the situation had become; the abundance of sea ice.

Sea ice volume has been the focal point for good reason; the ice has vanished at a startling rate over the past few years, thinning in some areas and melting completely in others.

In 2013, there was more sea ice in the Arctic than in 2012. It was still the 6th lowest all time abundance of sea ice and of course one year does not make a trend, but the fact that there was more ice has motivated some to suggest that 2013 wasn’t as bad as previous years. This image shows, incredibly, that in fact in 2013 things got even worse in the Arctic despite the extra sea ice.

When you heat a solid, it will warm up until it reaches its melting temperature. When ice melts, it holds at 0 degrees centigrade until all the ice is consumed. We call this “latent heat†or “heat of fusion†– that heat goes into melting the solid, but the temperature stays constant.

Heat can either melt a solid like ice or it can turn into increasing temperature. In the Arctic, we’re used to looking at heat melting the ice…but what would it look like if the heat instead warmed up the waters of the Arctic Ocean? This is in fact exactly what happened in 2013; not as much ice melted but temperatures soared in the exposed waters.

We’re in a truly new era in the Arctic. There is so much open water in the Arctic summer now that the Arctic can warm at the same time as sea ice expands because all the heat is taken up by the newly-exposed ocean.

Sea ice in many areas of the Arctic melted especially early in 2013; those areas are pretty much all red in this plot. Dark red colors show places where the water temperatures were 5 degrees C or more above their average summer temperatures. Waters in these areas were as much as 3 degrees warmer than those same waters in 2012, the year with the lowest recorded sea ice extent. Only small areas were at lower-than-average temperatures, and those areas didn’t hit nearly the extremes recorded by the high temperatures.

Scientists from NOAA did a set of calculations to determine the effect of these temperature increases and found that…in fact…there was more heat in the Arctic Ocean in the 2013 summer than the 2012 summer. 

 

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=82591
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/

Despite the one year increase in ice…the Arctic still kept warming, the heat was just stuck in a place that a few years ago was locked under ice and couldn’t warm up.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to December 21st

 

The current 1 day extent is 12,353,910km2, while the 5 day mean is on 12,268,420km2

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -879,620km2, an increase from -704,580km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 is at -69,810km2 a decrease from 259,087km2, and below them for the first time since April. We're currently 3rd lowest on record, compared to 5th last week.

 

The average daily increase over the last 7 days was +28.5k/day, compared to the long term average of +53.3k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of +51.5k/day.

 

The average long term increase over the next week is +45.0k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being +56.3k/day.

 

The gain so far this December is the 6th lowest on record. To record the largest December gain, a daily increase of 179.8k/day or higher is required. The lowest gain requires 20.3k/day or less.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Sorry for the break last week, just a bit busy during the festive period!

 

Anywho, update for the week to December 28th

 

The current 1 day extent is 12,840,700km2, while the 5 day mean is on 12,639,830km2

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -657,100km2, a decrease from -821,590km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 is at -12,440km2, a change from -69,810km2 last week. We're currently 4th lowest on record, compared to 3rd last week.

 

 

The average daily increase over the last 7 days was +69.5k/day, compared to the long term average of +45.0k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of +56.3k/day.

 

The average long term increase over the next week is +60.1k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being +58.8k/day.

 

The gain so far this December is the 14th lowest on record. To record the largest December gain, a daily increase of 377.2k/day or higher is required. The lowest gain requires a loss of at least -101.4k/day.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to January 4th

 

The current 1 day extent is 13,220,090km2, while the 5 day mean is on 13,039,250km2

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -698,390km2, an increase from -657,100km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +22,517km2 a change from -12,440km2. We're currently 4th lowest on record, the same as last week.

 

The average daily increase over the last 7 days was +54.2k/day, compared to the long term average of +60.1k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of +56.3k/day.

 

The average long term increase over the next week is +44.2k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being +54.0k/day.

 

 

The increase for the first 4 days of January is by far the largest on record. For the largest total January gain on record, a daily average of at least 48.5k/day is required for the rest of the month, with the smallest gain requiring 14.7k/day or less.

 

 

The gain for December 2013 was the 9th lowest on record

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to January 11th

 

The current 1 day extent is 13,417,800km2, while the 5 day mean is on 13,266,570km2

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -810,280km2, an increase from -698,390km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +65,303km2 a change from -22,517km2. We're currently 3rd lowest on record, down from 4th last week.

 

The average daily increase over the last 7 days was +28.2k/day, compared to the long term average of +44.2k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of +54.0k/day.

 

The average long term increase over the next week is +38.5k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being +32.6k/day.

 

The increase for the first 11 days of January is the 11th largest on record. For the largest total January gain on record, a daily average of at least 55.6k/day is required for the rest of the month, with the smallest gain requiring 10.0k/day or less.

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to January 18th

 

The current 1 day extent is 13,704,090km2, while the 5 day mean is on 13,595,900km2

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -793,260km2, a decrease from -810,280km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +107,730km2 a change from +65,303km2. We're currently 5th lowest on record, up from 3rd last week.

 

The average daily increase over the last 7 days was +34.8k/day, compared to the long term average of +38.5k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of +32.6k/day.

 

The average long term increase over the next week is +35.6k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being +28.4k/day.

 

The increase for the first 18 days of January is the 11th largest on record. For the largest total January gain on record, a daily average of at least 63.6k/day is required for the rest of the month, with the smallest gain requiring a loss of at least 6.7k/day.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to January 25th

 

The current 1 day extent is 14,056,840km2, while the 5 day mean is on 13,954,210km2

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -689,540km2, a decrease from -793,260km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +142,990km2 a change from +107,730km2. We're currently 6th lowest on record, up from 5th last week.

 

The average daily increase over the last 7 days was +50.4k/day, compared to the long term average of +35.6k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of +28.4k/day.

 

The average long term increase over the next week is +35.9k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being +35.0k/day.

 

The increase for the first 25 days of January is the 9th largest on record. For the largest total January gain on record, a daily average of at least 79.0k/day is required for the rest of the month, with the smallest gain requiring a loss of at least 73.2k/day.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to February 1st

 

The current 1 day extent is 14,189,100km2, while the 5 day mean is on 14,152,440km2

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -808,860km2, an increase from -689,540km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +102,593km2 a change from +142,990km2. We're currently 7th lowest on record, up from 6th last week.

 

The average daily increase over the last 7 days was +17.7k/day, compared to the long term average of +35.9k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of +35.0k/day.

 

The average long term increase over the next week is +22.1k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being +31.2k/day.

 

The increase for January was the 12th largest on record.

 

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to February 8th

 

The current 1 day extent is 14,155,330km2, while the 5 day mean is on 14,267,840km2

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -997,030km2, an increase from -808,860km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -124,460km2 a change from +102,593km2. We're currently 2nd lowest on record, down from 7th last week.

 

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -4.9k/day, compared to the long term average of +22.1k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of +31.2k/day.

 

The average long term increase over the next week is +18.2k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being +31.3k/day.

 

The change so far this month is the 2nd most negative on record. To record the largest February gain, an increase of 49.6k/day is required, while the smallest gain requires an increase of 4.1k/day.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to February 15th

 

The current 1 day extent is 14,361,660km2, while the 5 day mean is on 14,263,470km2

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -918,210km2, a decrease from -997,030km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -187,980km2, a change from -124,460km2. We're currently 2nd lowest on record, the same as last week.

 

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +29.4k/day, compared to the long term average of +18.2k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of +31.3k/day.

 

The average long term increase over the next week is +19.2k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being +5.8k/day.

 

The gain so far this month is the 11th smallest on record. To record the largest February gain, an increase of 60.4k/day is required, while the smallest gain requires an decrease of 9.6k/day.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to February 22nd

 

The current 1 day extent is 14,544,140km2, while the 5 day mean is on 14,481,610km2

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -870,160km2, a decrease from -918,210km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -40,010km2, a change from -187,980km2. We're currently 4th lowest on record, compared to 2nd last week.

 

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +26.2k/day, compared to the long term average of +19.2k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of +5.8k/day.

 

The average long term increase over the next week is +10.9k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being +5.8k/day.

 

The gain so far this month is the 11th smallest on record. To record the largest February gain, an increase of 100.5k/day is required, while the smallest gain requires an decrease of 51.1k/day.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to March 1st

 

The current 1 day extent is 14,596,420km2, while the 5 day mean is on 14,590,520km2

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -883,410km2, an increase from -870,160km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -113,100km2, a change from -40,010km2. We're currently 3rd lowest on record, compared to 4th lowest last week.

 

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +7.5k/day, compared to the long term average of +10.9k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of +5.8k/day.

 

The average long term increase over the next week is +0.2k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being +5.6k/day.

 

 

The extent gain in February was the 13th lowest on record.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to March 8th

 

The current 1 day extent is 14,526,820km2, while the 5 day mean is on 14,674,830km2

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -954,690km2, an increase from -883,410km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -262,620km2, a change from -113,100km2. We're currently lowest on record, compared to 3rd lowest last week.

 

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -9.8k/day, compared to the long term average of +0.2k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of +5.6k/day.

 

The average long term change over the next week is -6.8k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being +1.1k/day.

 

The change so far this month is the 7th most negative on record. The record the largest March gain, at least +23.4k/day is needed, while the largest loss requires -29.8k/day for the remainder of the month.

 

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

A busy few days, sorry for the delay.

 

Update for the week to March 15th

 

The current 1 day extent is 14,867,750km2, while the 5 day mean is on 14,780,270km2

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -566,420km2, an increase from -954,690km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +118,663km2, a change from -262,620km2. We're currently 6th lowest on record, compared to 1st lowest last week.

 

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +48.7k/day, compared to the long term average of -6.8k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of +1.1k/day.

 

The average long term change over the next week is -12.4k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being -8.3k/day.

 

The change so far this month is the 3rd most positive on record. The record the largest March gain, at least +8.6k/day is needed, while the largest loss requires -44.6k/day for the remainder of the month.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to March 22nd

 

The current 1 day extent is 14,757,080km2, while the 5 day mean is on 14,882,700km2

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -589,980km2, an increase from -566,420km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +93,220km2, a change from -118,663km2. We're currently 5th lowest on record, compared to 6tht lowest last week.

 

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -15.8k/day, compared to the long term average of -12.4k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of -8.3k/day.

 

The average long term change over the next week is -12.2k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being -1.2k/day.

 

The change so far this month is the 4th most positive on record. The record the largest March gain, at least +34.3k/day is needed, while the largest loss requires -101.7k/day for the remainder of the month.

 

At this stage, it's probably safe to call the daily maximum as 14,960,310km2 on the 20th, and the 5 day maximum as 14,912,600km2 on the 21st.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to March 29th

 

The current 1 day extent is 14,462,980km2, while the 5 day mean is on 14,604,350km2

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -798,590km2, an increase from -589,980km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -157,150km2, a change from +93,220km2. We're currently 5th lowest on record, the same as last week.

 

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -42.0k/day, compared to the long term average of -12.2k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of -1.2k/day.

 

The average long term change over the next week is -28.9k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being -26.1k/day.

 

The change so far this month is the 24th most negative on record. To record the largest March gain, at least +301.5k/day is needed, while the largest loss requires -310.5k/day for the remainder of the month.

 

[Polar Maritime]

Arctic sea ice reached its annual maximum extent on March 21, after a brief surge in extent mid-month. Overall the 2014 Arctic maximum was the fifth lowest in the 1978 to 2014 record. Antarctic sea ice reached its annual minimum on February 23, and was the fourth highest Antarctic minimum in the satellite record. While this continues a strong pattern of greater-than-average sea ice extent in Antarctica for the past two years, Antarctic sea ice remains more variable year-to-year than the Arctic. 

 

Arctic sea ice extent for March 2014 averaged 14.80 million square kilometers (5.70 million square miles). This is 730,000 square kilometers (282,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average extent, and 330,000 square kilometers (127,000 square miles) above the record March monthly low, which happened in 2006. Extent remains slightly below average in the Barents Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk, but is at near-average levels elsewhere. Extent hovered around two standard deviations below the long-term average through February and early March. The middle of March by contrast saw a period of fairly rapid expansion, temporarily bringing extent to within about one standard deviation of the long-term average. 

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2014/04/arctic-sea-ice-at-fifth-lowest-annual-maximum/

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to April 5th

 

The current 1 day extent is 14,578,550km2, while the 5 day mean is on 14,513,250km2

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -480,480km2, a decrease from -798,590km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +90,513km2, a change from -157,150km2. We're currently 7th lowest on record, compared to 5th lowest last week.

 

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +16.6k/day, compared to the long term average of -28.9k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of -26.1k/day.

 

The average long term change over the next week is -36.8k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being -24.0k/day.

 

The loss in March was the 9th smallest on record (with 5 years seeing gains through March).

 

The change so far this April is the most positive on record. The achieve the largest April loss on record, and average of -70.4k/day is required, while the smallest April loss requires -28.4k/day for the remainder of the month.

 

 

[knocker]

Quite an interesting site

 

Sea ice age in 1984 vs sea ice age in 2012,

 

http://arkgis.org/

[keithlucky]

Bis increase in Multiyear Arctic ice as NSIDC point out an increase from 869.000 to,1,220,000sq miles, following a low summer melt.http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Edited April 13, 2014 by keithlucky

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to April 12th

 

The current 1 day extent is 14,153,290km2, while the 5 day mean is on 14,338,510km2

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -648,310km2, an increase from -480,480km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -89,870km2, a change from +90,513km2. We're currently 4th lowest on record, compared to 7th lowest last week.

 

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -60.8k/day, compared to the long term average of -36.8k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of -24.0k/day.

 

The average long term change over the next week is -37.4k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being -34.3k/day.

 

The loss so far this April is the 17th smallest on record. The achieve the largest April loss on record, an average of -74.1k/day is required, while the smallest April loss requires -15.8k/day for the remainder of the month.

 

 

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to April 19th

 

The current 1 day extent is 13,780,490km2, while the 5 day mean is on 13,934,950km2

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -759,180km2, an increase from -648,310km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -294,370km2, a change from -89,870km2. We're currently 3rd lowest on record, compared to 4th lowest last week.

 

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -53.0k/day, compared to the long term average of -37.4k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of -34.3k/day.

 

The average long term change over the next week is -38.3k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being -39.5k/day.

 

The loss so far this April is the 13th largest on record. The achieve the largest April loss on record, an average of -87.4k/day is required, while the smallest April loss requires +8.1k/day for the remainder of the month.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to April 26th

 

The current 1 day extent is 13,716,920km2, while the 5 day mean is on 13,771,800km2

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -554,870km2, a decrease from -759,180km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -89,330km2, a change from -294,370km2. We're currently 4th lowest on record, compared to 3rd lowest last week.

 

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -9.1k/day, compared to the long term average of -38.3k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of -39.5k/day.

 

The average long term change over the next week is -58.2k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being -68.6k/day.

 

The loss so far this April is the 12th smallest on record. To achieve the largest April loss on record, an average of -224,350k/day is required, while the smallest April loss requires +38.1k/day for the remainder of the month.

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

NSIDC data has finally updated.

 

Update for the week to May 3rd

 

The current 1 day extent is 13,244,210km2, while the 5 day mean is on 13,425,090km2

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -620,240km2, an increase from -554,870km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -120,190km2, a change from -89,330km2. We're currently 3rd lowest on record, compared to 4th lowest last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -67.5k/day, compared to the long term average of -58.2k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of -68.6k/day.

 

The average long term change over the next week is -42.9k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being -36.6k/day.

 

The loss in April was the 10th smallest on record

 

The loss so far this May is the 4th largest on record. To achieve the largest May loss, and average of at least -61.7k/day is required, while the smallest loss requires no more than -14.7k/day.

 

 

  

 

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to May 10th

 

The current 1 day extent is 12,944,440km2, while the 5 day mean is on 13,016,070km2

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -619,570km2, an decrease from -620,240km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -169,940km2, a change from -120,190km2. We're currently 3rd lowest on record, the same as last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -42.8k/day, compared to the long term average of -42.9k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of -36.6k/day.

 

The average long term change over the next week is -45.1k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being -53.9k/day.

 

The loss so far this May is the 8th largest on record. To achieve the largest May loss, an average of at least -68.0k/day is required, while the smallest loss requires no more than -5.3k/day.

 

 

Edited May 12, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid