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Uk General Convective Discussion & Forecasts, 24th August '12>


Nick F

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Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)

i think it's coming straight at ya - are the rumbles getting louder?

Yeah they have been slowly, had about 5 rumbles now! smile.png

Edit: just had a nice loud rumble, I think I might end up on its eastern edge!

Edited by DeepSnow
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Looks like a slight upgrade on the 12z data, especially for Southern half of Britian.

post-12721-0-46867100-1345829379_thumb.ppost-12721-0-32773800-1345829387_thumb.p

post-12721-0-99211900-1345829481_thumb.gpost-12721-0-39066800-1345829493_thumb.g

post-12721-0-59051100-1345829572_thumb.gpost-12721-0-40952600-1345829579_thumb.g

post-12721-0-18603800-1345829866_thumb.ppost-12721-0-77565300-1345829914_thumb.p

post-12721-0-14712900-1345829662_thumb.gpost-12721-0-67411200-1345829671_thumb.g

Will be intersting to hear the forecasts from the usual suspects/organisations later, I got a feeling there could be some pretty decent storms tomorrow for a few lucky places though!

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

Looks like a slight upgrade on the 12z data, especially for Southern half of Britian.

post-12721-0-46867100-1345829379_thumb.ppost-12721-0-32773800-1345829387_thumb.p

post-12721-0-99211900-1345829481_thumb.gpost-12721-0-39066800-1345829493_thumb.g

post-12721-0-59051100-1345829572_thumb.gpost-12721-0-40952600-1345829579_thumb.g

post-12721-0-18603800-1345829866_thumb.ppost-12721-0-77565300-1345829914_thumb.p

post-12721-0-14712900-1345829662_thumb.gpost-12721-0-67411200-1345829671_thumb.g

Will be intersting to hear the forecasts from the usual suspects/organisations later, I got a feeling there could be some pretty decent storms tomorrow for a few lucky places though!

I like upgrades! This is good news!

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Some thunderstorms now over south wales & the western part of the Bristol Channel....they are moving NE, the question from my perspective is can they reach the west midlands before dying out....probably not, but I'll still watch the radar anyway!

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Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)

Typical that just as it looks like im going to get a storm, it moves overhead and is just very heavy rain - storm shield seems to have kicked in again sad.png

Edit: spoke to soon, just had a huge flash of lightning and crack of thunder :D

Edited by DeepSnow
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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

Typical that just as it looks like im going to get a storm, it moves overhead and is just very heavy rain - storm shield seems to have kicked in again sad.png

Edit: spoke to soon, just had a huge flash of lightning and crack of thunder biggrin.png

Nice one Deep Snow - That one's got my name on it too - it's looking good and developing nicely!good.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)

Nice one Deep Snow - That one's got my name on it too - it's looking good and developing nicely!good.gif

Enjoy!! didn't get a massive amout from it, only saw 2-3 flashes though the cloud hid the lightning itself, had some nice deep rumbles from it too though it has now passed to my northeast!

Edited by DeepSnow
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

I think tomorrow is looking rather good for many parts of Southern England with the LP sat out in the North Sea and a NE airflow setting up. Think the breeding ground could be further west tomorrow, in Wales, allowing time for storms to develop before they reach me and so rather than breed them, I might actually get to experience them.

Edited by Active Weather Dude
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

I think tomorrow is looking rather good for many parts of Southern England with the LP sat out in the North Sea and a NE airflow setting up. Think the breeding ground could be further west tomorrow, in Wales, allowing time for storms to develop before they reach me and so rather than breed them, I might actually get to experience them.

I will shout so loud of i get more than one rumble of thunder. O_O

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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK

Heathrow -

PROB40 TEMPO 2509/2520 24016G26KT 3000 +TSRA BKN012CB

Probability 40%

Temporary

from 25th at 09 UTC to 25th at 20 UTC

Wind 16 kt from west/southwest with gusts up to 26 kt

Visibility 3000 m

Broken clouds at a height of 1200 ft , Cumulonimbus.

heavy thunderstorm rain

Edited by Robbie Garrett
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Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ
  • Weather Preferences: Many
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ

Is that two MCSs side by side in the channel? Looks like it on Sat24. A wide area of heavy rain starting to move over here now, doesn't look very electrical but there is also potential behind it.

Looks like Jersey and Guernsey have had a spectacular day!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Still plenty of time yet, come on you storms! (there's always tomorrow!)

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Too much low cloud around here to see what's going on. Just persistent drizzle haha.

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Posted
  • Location: Highley, Shropshire, WV16
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow
  • Location: Highley, Shropshire, WV16

Cells over mid wales are loosing there sferics...shame :(

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Is it me, or according to the lightning indicator on here, have I witnessed maybe the longest lasting storm ever out in the North Sea out from Middlesbrough/N Yorkshire coast. There has been sferics all day on that thing :o

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

New sferics in Wales but quite scattered in nature.

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Posted
  • Location: Highley, Shropshire, WV16
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow
  • Location: Highley, Shropshire, WV16

Is it me, or according to the lightning indicator on here, have I witnessed maybe the longest lasting storm ever out in the North Sea out from Middlesbrough/N Yorkshire coast. There has been sferics all day on that thing ohmy.png

I noticed that too! Seems to have been rumbling away to itself out there most the day!

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Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ
  • Weather Preferences: Many
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ

Looks like a horrible time for the fishermen out in the North Sea, that's for sure, or any other sea around these islands! As for here, the skies look loaded.

Here's the latest on Sat24:

post-17125-0-45985200-1345833889_thumb.j

Edited by Chris W
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

The HiRlam model has storm potential a tad further north than the GFS, covering most of England & Wales tomorrow!

post-12721-0-94027100-1345833629_thumb.ppost-12721-0-19151300-1345833643_thumb.ppost-12721-0-11489000-1345833655_thumb.p

post-12721-0-52705900-1345833666_thumb.ppost-12721-0-51114200-1345833685_thumb.ppost-12721-0-06506200-1345833700_thumb.p

post-12721-0-53900600-1345833715_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Evening everyonesmile.png

theres quiet a few sferics in NW whales at the mo,also i am keeping my eye on them clump of showers from derby to gloucester.

Edited by allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

Was just looking out the window and I swear I just saw a flash of lightning. I've got a blocked view but the sky flashed infront of me. Didnt hear thunder though.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

From UKASF ( Can't get map for some reason )

Synopsis:

Sharp upper trough migrates northeastwards across the British Isles with a surface low tracking across central Britain. Within the central circulation, widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast.

Discussion:Wrap-around occlusion over northern and southwestern England will bring outbreaks of rain at times, with the potential perhaps for a few embedded thunderstorms.

General focus however will be within the central circulation of the low, beneath the upper trough. Cool mid-levels (typically -17/-18C at 500mb) combined with diurnal heating will result in locally >1000J/kg CAPE, with widespread showers and thunderstorms forming, the most frequent sferic activity being during the afternoon and early evening hours.

However, despite favourable lapse rates, with the jet over northern France there is rather poor DLS, and therefore cells may be rather unorganised, short-lived and thus resulting in 'pulse-type' storms. Best organised cells will be in areas with low-level convergence within the trough axis.

Some 20kts LLS combined with low LCLs (600m or so) may result in a funnel or weak tornado, especially within the vicinity of low-level convergence zones. As a result of poor DLS, hail is only likely in any stronger cores where updraft/downdraft separation is prolonged, with a local event potentially up to 2.0cm in diameter possible given dry air aloft.

Main severe weather is the risk of local flash flooding given PWAT values >25mm combined with very slow storm motion within the centre of the low. One main concern is rather excessive cloud cover in the low centre which may inhibit deep convection somewhat.

Edited by Active Weather Dude
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