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Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 17th July 2012>


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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Weather warning issued for Wales: heavy thundery rain forecast all weekend

weather-warning-898527081.jpg

The first weekend of August is set to be a washout as the Met Office issues a weather warning for Wales with heavy and thundery showers forecast across the country. The deluges are expected to hit from around 11am, with most places likely to be affected, as shown by this chart.

A yellow warning has been issued by the Met Office, which said: “Heavy and thundery showers are expected to develop through Saturday which may be prolonged in places. “The public should be aware that these are liable to lead to surface water flooding issues in some places and give difficult driving conditions.â€

The Met Office said there was a risk some places could see around 15mm falling in one hour, with some areas receiving 40mm in three hours. Most of Wales is set for heavy and largely unbroken rain from 7am to 8pm on Saturday, though there will be breaks in some places, including Aberystwyth. The rain is set to continue into Sunday.

The Met Office said it would be "largely cloudy overnight (tonight), as a band of occasionally heavy rain moves erratically eastwards through Wales, followed by further scattered and occasionally heavy showers near western coasts". For Saturday, it forecast "further sunny spells but also some heavy and thundery showers, perhaps forming into bands of more prolonged rain in some areas. It will be remaining breezy, especially in the south."

The maximum temperature is set to be around 19C

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

I like how they seem to know the exact time when the rain willl arrive. LOL.

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

'Most of Wales set for heavy and largely unbroken rain from 7am to 8pm'? Along with the title, that's a bit miss-leading. It will actually be sunshine and heavy/torrential showers or thunderstorms in places but nowhere will get unbroken rain all day. Another example of poor newspaper reports which unfortunately the Met Office tends to get the blame for.

In terms of my location, I feel that the southerly breeze on both Saturday and Sunday will mean any storms form north of me and move away with me being one of the few areas with very little chance.. I may have to drive somewhere to see anything thundery.

Edited by Stormmad26
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

You have to laugh....seems like the Metoffice are expecting the most intense storms to be over the eastern half of the country tomorrow now! This can be seen in the updated regional text forecasts which state torrential downpours for eastern regions and scattered showers, some heavy and thundery, becoming isolated later for western parts! I give up!

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Posted
  • Location: South East UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/squalls/hoar-frost/mist
  • Location: South East UK

the lack of showers in the S.E.,is it caused by subsidence from the feature over north east france? some cirrus now moving in too.

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

It's ok Crew, their forecast just sounds like their default text and I'm sure tomorrow will be a good day for a lot of people. This evening seems to be good as welll, it feels very thundery out there now and that warm SSE wind is bringing some showers and potential with it.

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Posted
  • Location: Chester
  • Weather Preferences: the stormier the better...
  • Location: Chester

Looks like some good activity over Ireland atm! Watch the Irish Sea kill it off!

It's ok Crew, their forecast just sounds like their default text and I'm sure tomorrow will be a good day for a lot of people. This evening seems to be good as welll, it feels very thundery out there now and that warm SSE wind is bringing some showers and potential with it.

What sort of conditions over there Chris? Mainly overcast here so not much surface heating happening.

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Mostly cloudy here with a few sunny spppellls but also a few quite light showers. I do like the feeling out there though. I can hear the sferics in the stuff over ireland though sounds good. I will remain posative.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

Just had a nice heavy downpour here.Loving this sunshine and showers theme! biggrin.png Good luck all for the weekend.drinks.gif:D

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Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan

Looks like some good activity over Ireland atm! Watch the Irish Sea kill it off!

That will happen, or at least it will kill off the thundery activity

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Absolutely nothing here; it's free of any notable convection, from horizon to horizon and, presumably, beyond...Just another dry, fine day!

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Absolutely nothing here; it's free of any notable convection, from horizon to horizon and, presumably, beyond...Just another dry, fine day!

I know, you wouldn't think we were under low pressure command.....

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl

Dry and often sunny day here as well...showers? What showers?

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Appears nothing ever really got going today, although of course Lincolnshire had their daily downpour.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

My preliminary thoughts for tomorrow!

post-12721-0-60654800-1344018709_thumb.j

The best chance of catching a storm is the area within the red zone IMO. This is where I see cells merging together, as they form over Wales and head North East.

The area within the Orange Zone stands every chance of catching a storm too, however taking into account local variations, slightly weaker sheer and the areas cells may form along with the time, for these reasons, this area is Orange and not red.

The area in Yellow as a chance of rumbles of thunder and a flash or two, but I dont think this area is favoured for the best, more organised action.

This is just my preliminary thought, and maybe subject to change on new, updated data. I have only flicked through model output from the 12z runs, so may need a more detailed look later. Also, I await far more experienced posters to post their views, as I am still learning, and this is more for fun than expectation.

Please dont shout if you are in the red area and dont get a storm tomorrow. I aint no Pro!!! blum.gifhelp.giftease.giftease.gif

Edited by Active Weather Dude
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

My preliminary thoughts for tomorrow!

post-12721-0-60654800-1344018709_thumb.j

The best chance of catching a storm is the area within the red zone IMO. This is where I see cells merging together, as they form over Wales and head North East.

The area within the Orange Zone stands every chance of catching a storm too, however taking into account local variations, slightly weaker sheer and the areas cells may form along with the time, for these reasons, this area is Orange and not red.

The area in Yellow as a chance of rumbles of thunder and a flash or two, but I dont think this area is favoured for the best, more organised action.

This is just my preliminary thought, and maybe subject to change on new, updated data. I have only flicked through model output from the 12z runs, so may need a more detailed look later. Also, I await far more experienced posters to post their views, as I am still learning, and this is more for fun than expectation.

Please dont shout if you are in the red area and dont get a storm tomorrow. I aint no Pro!!! blum.gifhelp.giftease.giftease.gif

Peterborough seems to have all 3 zones within a stones throw from each other !

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Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67

Had a brief heavy downpour about half an hour ago here. Tomorrow is when it starts to get interesting

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Naff all here....nice!

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

welcome to net weather BENSAINSBURY , hope we all see some action tomorrow . looking good for about mid morning onwards . there does look to be some winners but as usuall one or two missing out . a gradual very gradual moving east and north east of the area of low pressure over the next 3 days ,then a possible rise of pressure before another low forms to our south west towards next friday ,the possibility then of some warmer temperatures being pulled in with a shout of a thundery breakdown . but as always things can change at this range . so tomorrow could be a day to get the camera out ,and sandbags at the ready ,cheers legritter drinks.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Feeling quite hopeful for tomorrow for my area. First time this summer I think I am probably in one of the best areas for a storm.

I will be chasing tomorrow, but may be able to do it on foot :)

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

I'm looking forward to the proper forecasts from the usual sources for tomorrow. smile.png

In the meantime,the GFS 12z seems to highlight an area around north Wales as a potential

hotspot for tomorrow with what looks like a small surface low forming in the afternoon.

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl

I'm looking forward to the proper forecasts from the usual sources for tomorrow. smile.png

In the meantime,the GFS 12z seems to highlight an area around north Wales as a potential

hotspot for tomorrow with what looks like a small surface low forming in the afternoon.

If that comes off I'll be found doing this...........

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d4T9BZk_2d4&feature=player_detailpage

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Posted
  • Location: Chester
  • Weather Preferences: the stormier the better...
  • Location: Chester

If that comes off I'll be found doing this...........

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d4T9BZk_2d4&feature=player_detailpage

Maybe.....just maybe!

It seems like a very precise area doesn't it! But we are overdue.......................................................

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Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL

Does Cumbria look like getting in on the action tommorow?

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