Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 17th July 2012>

[Neilsouth]

Neil, the forecast issued by Estofex was for a risk of severe weather, indeed Skywarn, Torro & NW forecasts commented on this risk...Parameters were condusive to an increased risk of severe weather...Notice the use of the word 'risk'...at no time did any forecasting organization use words to the effect of 'Definite severe weather' or '100%' chance, did they?

So i can be a forecaster too by saying

Tomorrow there is a RISK of a shower, can i work for estofex now?

A risk is just to cover ones forecasting backside in case it doesn't happen

Edited August 3, 2012 by Victor Meldrew

[Supacell]

So i can be a forecaster too by saying

Tomorrow there is a RISK of a shower, can i work for estofex now?

A risk is just to cover ones forecasting backside in case it doesn't happen

Hi Neil

Although I am not a forecaster I can appreciate the complexities of storm forecasting and considering this it would be impossible for a forecaster to be able to say for instance "there will be a tornado over NE Kent at 2:47pm" etc. As AJ has said, the forecasted level 1 is for a risk of severe weather... lets say the risk was 30% that somewhere will be affected at some point during the day, this would indicate that there is a 70% risk of it not happening anywhere.

If they only put out forecasts when there was a certainty of a storm in your location then we would never see anything from them and imagine the grief the forecasters would get when a tornado does happen (i.e. the grief the met office got for not portraying the intensity of the storms on the 28th June this year).

Please also bear in mind that Estofex, ukasf and our netweather forecasters are not paid to do these forecasts, they spend there own time putting them together for us to read. I for one appreciate the work they all put in and don't think that people should slate them when they don't see a storm overhead. And this comes from someone who lives in one of the most storm starved parts of the country

Edited August 3, 2012 by Supacell

[A.J]

So i can be a forecaster too by saying

Tomorrow there is a RISK of a shower, can i work for estofex now?

A risk is just to cover ones forecasting backside in case it doesn't happen

Judging by the rest of your post, then the answer is an emphatic 'NO' by the looks of things!

My original post and Supacell's more eloquent reply above say just about everything that needs to be said

[Terminal Moraine]

Just had a good storm pass over here, lasted around 20 min.

Not again P.M! That one missed me by about a mile, this time to the west.

Not only that but there was another cell a few miles to the south east and we crept through the dry gap, only about 5 miles wide, between the two.

Surely the law of averages would indicate a direct strike sometime soon.

[Coast]

Looks like Ireland and maybe a bit of North Wales or Merseyside at a slight risk today - yes, I haven't a clue what % risk, but some information points towards it including ESTOFEX!!!

CAPE looking good:

Shear and convergence:

and plenty of rain!

Lapse rates up:

I'm really sorry if this doesn't pan out for people, but as I am not a forecaster, I can only post what I see as potential and if none of us did that, we wouldn't have a discussion forum!!!!

[Chris.R]

Did

you

just

say

Merseyside? OMG. Thankyou Coast. The metoffice don't have anything for us today so I'll probably get hit by a bigone.

[Coast]

Thankyou Coast. The metoffice don't have anything for us today so I'll probably get hit by a bigone.

Not that I know what's going on!!!!! I only guess remember!!!

[legritter]

first a big thanks to COAST for posting charts ,yes potential good for saturday /sunday for many of us .will it be a get the camera out weekend or looking in amazement as yet another storm passes by severall miles away ,i looked at sky 30min ago and thought nothing here yet for an hour or so BUT its now pouring down . off over mum in law for me ham roll with pickle ,and to read the weather forecast in her daily SUN newspaper , its gospell , enjoy any storms catch up with you later

[Chris.R]

Well I hope your guess is correct because I'll never forgive you if you're wrong! Me and the other northwest members will come down to the southeast and take your computer! LOL.Seariously though, all the forecasters do a very good job and not everyone can have a storm at the same time, there's a limited number of them ya know. I do think the metoffice try to wind us Merseysiders up though sometimes.

[SteveB]

The latest BBC forcasts have the look of potential about them for today around this area.

[GoKart Mozart]

Nice little cell has morphed into a thunderstorm to the SW of Stoke in the NW Midlands...not heading this way sadly, but nice to see something happen in the west (north west) midland

Developed into 40 minute thunderstorm in Stoke 7 40 to 8 20pm. Shame I was on a history walk at the time-soaking muddy streams running down hill etc

[Raidan]

I appreciate any forecast or warning attempt by any members,I'm no good when it comes to charts and am knowhere near as knowledgable as people here so I'm always greatful when someone takes the time to put what they know down and make it easy for people to understand what could happen or not happen,yes its annoying when it doesn't believe me I know as all to often it doesn't,but I'm not going to blame a forecaster for it,so a BIG thanks to people like Coast,Nick F,Active Weather Dude and all the others that take the time to post their information,Cheers!

[Nick F]

Valid: 03/08/2012 10:00 - 04/08/2012 06:00

Headline: ... THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...

Synopsis

Slow-moving upper and collocated surface low close to western Ireland today will drive an unstable cyclonic SWerly flow across the UK,

... IRELAND, WALES, MIDLANDS, E ANGLIA, N ENGLAND & S SCOTLAND ...

Convection will increase in coverage from the SW/W through the morning, as surface heating combined with mid-levels cooling from the west steepen lapse rates. Low-mid level lapse rates will be steepest over Ireland, western, central and northern parts of the UK - so here convection will be strongest and most likely to favour the developemnt of scattered thundestorms by/during the afternoon.

Weak deep vertical shear and lack of high temps will mean storm organisation with a severe threat is unlikely, storms may produce hail, gusty winds and may cause minor localised flooding. Stronger low-level instability and low level shear indicated across Ireland this afternoon could mean more buoyant/strong updrafts rotate to allow an isolated weak tornado with any storms here, particularly where winds back ahead of low tracking across S Ireland. Storms should fade after dark

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=86e964283add07c04e76d31fa980688b

[Lynxus]

Chucking it down here..

Rain falling from both directions.. Very strange lol

[Coast]

Remember people like Nick F, Brickfielder, John Holmes and countless other knowledgeable members also know and understand the meteorology behind why things might or might not happen. I just have lots of links to information and look at the charts/other peoples forecasts and take a punt!!!!

Like the quiet period convectively, that seems to be coming up in 4 days time maybe?

But look how GFS is currently calling it for next Friday night towards the South - now I do know that's a long way off to start getting excited about any potential for storms, but it's a great thing to follow for a while!

[AWD]

Looks like a French MCS import about to hit the Sussex/Kent coast for next Friday. Nailed! Lol.

On a more serious note, think the north will fair better than the South today. Expecting a quiet day with just a scattering of showers in my region today. More interested in tomorrow, with a good deal of widespread potential as things stand.

Think the Irish may do the best today, possibly parts of the North Midlands too.

[MP-R]

Huge downpour just formed overhead and gave quite a deluge of torrential rain before stopping as soon as it started. Very unstable air around here at the moment with clouds bubbling up readily and feeling humid.

[Karl83]

I need a storm this weekend more than anything. I am hoping to get some cracking timelapse footage of building clouds and such.

All the West Country Crew I am thinking, as things stand, Cirencester Sunday? Maybe the viewpoint?

[Aaron]

Saturday is looking lovely!

[Nick F]

Was a few heavy rain showers across SW London on the way to work late morning, but cloud growth is definately being supressed now from the SW across London/SE as an earlier trough moves away NE.

Ireland, Wales and The Midlands nothwards probably the best spots for heavy showers and storms for the rest of the day.

Definately noticeable pattern in a convective SW flow in summer that the S and SE get heavy showers in the morning then it dries up in the afternoon, while M4 northwards the heavy showers and storms get going through the afternoon. Similar over the weekend, though storms maybe more widespread N of the M4 in the afternoons.

[Stuart]

Look like it no go for storms up here for me at the weekend

[Mapantz]

The end of next week is looking very interesting, as warm air gets advected up from the south. May even be the best chance yet for imports!

A better week, increasing temps and humidity by the end of it, and then a breakdown for the weekend.

[AWD]

Definitely something to keep an eye on, but all too far off to be taken seriously yet. But your right, it is something that is interesting.

Not much here today, apart from a brief heavy shower earlier, tomorrow is the day that currently interests me a bit more anyway. I'm off work tomorrow too, so may travel up to Cotswolds if that looks like a better location to be.

Edited August 3, 2012 by Active Weather Dude

[Karl83]

The end of next week is looking very interesting, as warm air gets advected up from the south. May even be the best chance yet for imports!

A better week, increasing temps and humidity by the end of it, and then a breakdown for the weekend.

I've got to say, I hope it doesn't happen. Only because I am out of the country for 2 weeks from Tuesday! Sorry for my selfishness.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Very heavy shower here, with some altocumulus, no thunder heard though.