Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 17th July 2012>

[Karl83]

NE of glos is always a good idea lol.

Ive only taken a brief look at the charts and im not even sure there will be any storms. Better wait till tomorrow afternoons charts.

Lol ok. I've been waiting for a long time. :-)

I think I will head to NE Gloucester anyway. For some reason I have a gut feeling.

Thanks man.

Edited August 2, 2012 by Thunder_Bolt

[AWD]

Lol ok. I've been waiting for a long time. :-)

I think I will head to NE Gloucester anyway. For some reason I have a gut feeling.

Thanks man.

In terms of today's potential, I would look at somewhere I between Cirencester, Oxford, Leamington, Cotswolds.

Say....... Maybe Kingham.

Anyway, nice little squall line developing over Cornwall and Devon now with some intense bursts in it. Let's see how this develops over the next few hours.

[Lynxus]

Lol ok. I've been waiting for a long time. :-)

I think I will head to NE Gloucester anyway. For some reason I have a gut feeling.

Thanks man.

Usually with a SSW flow we ( in glos ) end up with stuff building to our south and east, Normally with the NE of chelt getting anything fun. and just in general north of glos ( it all depends how far south the cells start building. ) I find that the river tends to push things east of glos 90% of times.

Cape suggests that the most energy will be North and nw of glos. But i doubt that north wales will see much .

Generic storm risk shows the chances are further east ( NE of glos.. )

PPN sorta suggests the same, Mostly NE of here..

[Chris K]

Just avoid Bristol area at all costs. We attract dry slots and showers even split to avoid us most of the time.

Right now for example...

So yea I would say areas NE of Gloucester as showers continue to develop as they head off past Severn Estuary/Bristol etc. That's if the direction is like today anyway.

Edited August 2, 2012 by Chris K

[Stormraider]

Heard a few faint rumbles from the cell out towards Wolverhampton way. Skies clearing here and the sun is out, humidity rising fast.

[A.J]

Heard a few faint rumbles from the cell out towards Wolverhampton way. Skies clearing here and the sun is out, humidity rising fast.

nothing heard here sadly...just moderate rain which is now clearing away

[Stuart]

not sure if this been posted

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

WALES

MIDLANDS

EAST ANGLIA

SOUTHERN ENGLAND

IN EFFECT FROM 1200UTC UNTIL 2300UTC THURSDAY 2ND AUGUST 2012

FILLING LOW SYSTEM WEST OF IRELAND OVERSPREADING COOL UPPERS GENERATING INSTABILITY WHERE SUBTLE SHORTWAVING MAY ENHANCE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

HEAVY RAIN...STRONG GUSTS...FUNNELS/WEAK TORNADOES

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY CONFIDENCE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEST INSTABILITY IS BEING GENERATED BY COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT, WITH UP TO 500J/KG CAPE POSSIBLE CONDITIONAL ON PRIOR CLOUD COVER. SOME HINTS OF SHORTWAVING AND VORTICITY THROUGH SURFACE TO MID LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS, WHILST A 950-850HPA INCREASE IN WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST MAY FURTHER ENHANCE CHANCES OF FORMATION OF FUNNELS AND/OR BRIEF WEAK TORNADOES WHERE COINCIDENT WITH DECENT UPDRAFTS. GREATEST CHANCES OF STORMS INITIATING AND SUSTAINING EXISTS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND EAST ANGLIA LATER, THOUGH SUCCESSIVE CORES WHERE TRAINS MAY SET UP FROM THE HIGH GROUND OF THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL ENGLAND COULD PROVIDE FOR A RISK OF EXCESSIVE SURFACE WATER AND FLASH FLOODING. BEST CHANCES FOR ORGANISED CONVECTION EXISTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF THE WATCH ZONES LATE AFTERNOON ONWARDS. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

http://skywarn.org.uk/current.html

[A.J]

nothing heard here sadly...just moderate rain which is now clearing away

which of course will morph into a supercellular, lightning bloated beast as it heads off towards lincolnshire!

[Lynxus]

which of course will morph into a supercellular, lightning bloated beast as it heads off towards lincolnshire!

heheh. Been burned before?

Cell over Rugby is showing some sferics.

Edited August 2, 2012 by Lynxus

[Nick L]

Yup, torrential downpour here. As AJ said, no doubt off to storm corner...aka Lincolnshire!

[Lynxus]

Another torrential rainstorm now.

Once again, heavy rain, sudden increase in wind.

[Coast]

TORRO on the case now!

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2012/014

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 1020GMT on Thursday 2nd August 2012

Valid from/until: 1020GMT – 2100GMT on Thursday 2nd August 2012 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire: Much of Wales The Midlands and E Anglia Parts of S England

THREATS

Isolated tornadoes; CG lightning; hail; gusty winds

SYNOPSIS

Deep upper low and associated surface low are to the west of Eire. Across the discussion area, an unstable rPm airmass is in place. A strong south-west upper flow is present across the region although a general SW flow at the surface is limiting overall shear. However, some low-level backing is evident across south-western portions, likely in response to larger scale lifting as a series of impulses within the main upper flow approach.

Areas of convection are already present across southern and western parts of the area and these should develop/expand north-eastwards. Some are likely to become thunderstorms, and may produce hail and gusty winds. In addition, reasonable low-level shear, especially where the surface flow is backed somewhat may lead to storm-scale rotation, and perhaps one or two tornadoes.

The fairly modest instability and lack of much low-level directional shear precludes the issuance of a watch at this stage.

[Aaron]

Is that thunder I hear..?

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Storm over Nottingham looks decent. Shame I'm in York

Looking good into the weekend so I'm hoping for something up here then, York normally seems to do ok for storms.

[legritter]

Update at 15.45. Clouds now slowing down wind dropped, feels a bit more humid and going very very dark out south west. Radar showing quickly building cells and some b b across Cornwall. I think between now and mid evening could be interesting

[Lynxus]

Update at 15.45. Clouds now slowing down wind dropped, feels a bit more humid and going very very dark out south west. Radar showing quickly building cells and some b b across Cornwall. I think between now and mid evening could be interesting

Agreed, There is certainly a change in the way the cells are building. Lets see what the next few hours do.

[Lynxus]

Ohhh sferics down south ( SW of "Wells" )

[Coast]

Well this was always looking like the potential (if there is any) was going to be be later today, lets see what develops then!

[IanR]

looking dark towards the north west of here, with that greyish purple colour at the base of the clouds, Manchester/ Bolton area, probably just a light shower

[Raidan]

Thunder here no lightning seen.

[Chris K]

Sferics being detected tantalisingly close to Bristol. Can it be? My eyes are on showers across Devon at the moment.

[fromey]

along line of showers just north of me showing on the radar, is it convergence??

[bensainsbury]

I will put my location on my profile in a min but heard 4 rumbles of thunder in Bristol.

[Coast]

I will put my location on my profile in a min but heard 4 rumbles of thunder in Bristol.

Welcome to Netweather and the nail biting section of the forum!!!

That's a nice way to kick off your first post

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

really persistent heavy shower here just gone. Another cell looks to be quite potent and building over Milton Keynes/Northampton area, keeping my eye on that one. Winds have subsided and its beginning to feel quite humid with a temp of around 20c with dew point of 16c. This evening could well turn out quite interesting i reckon!