Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 17th July 2012>


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Some activity looks to have exploded over the Cherbourg peninsula, wonder if that will maintain its intensity and move up over the East Mids during this late evening ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...ctures/19069155

If only we got scenes more often like this in the UK !

(3rd picture along showing a giant cb over Canadian Rockies)

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

That Isle of Wight photo looks like Florida!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

That Isle of Wight photo looks like Florida!

If only it was !!! Hierarchy of that is, is that is such a disguised looking photo, because that English Channel has killed more storms than I've had hot dinners!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lydd, Romney Marsh, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Storms
  • Location: Lydd, Romney Marsh, Kent

Something beefy heading for me from the English Channel, will probably fizzle out by the time it gets here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Barkingside, Essex
  • Location: Barkingside, Essex

Something beefy heading for me from the English Channel, will probably fizzle out by the time it gets here.

As per norm, heading NE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Saturday and Sunday are looking like they could be pretty good for a possible storm.

Low pressure looks like being right over us at the weekend giving widespread potential

for heavy showers and storms.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

yes looking good for rest of the week ,travelled from cheltenham to somerset this evening and had some spectacular downpours but driving so did not see any lightening or heard any thunder . friday sat and sunday looking very good with pressure low and still a strong sun .some of the showers could become slow moving and cause problems for outdoor events ,cheers

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

Got caught on a downpour on my way back from IKEA on the M62.. it looked heavier on the motorway though of course.

When I left the store it had stopped raining but we caught up to it on the way back, and there were some spectacular rainbows, some of which looked like they were right in front of us.

Edited by Aaron
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South East UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/squalls/hoar-frost/mist
  • Location: South East UK

heavy shower here now, Estofex has a level 1 for england and wales.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

ESTOFEX have the South under a Zone 1 today!

Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 02 Aug 2012 06:00 to Fri 03 Aug 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Thu 02 Aug 2012 06:33

Forecaster: GATZEN

post-6667-0-38002100-1343893937.png

A level 1 was issued for the southern British Isles mainly for tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

A mid-level trough is located to the west of the British Isles. A intense mid-level jet stream has developed at its southern flank. Downstream, a broad trough extends across eastern Europe.

Southern British Isles

At the cyclonically sheared flank of the west European jet streak, QG forcing is expected over the southern British Isles today. Affected air mass is characterized by rather steep lapse rates, while the boundary-layer moisture increases during the day due to south-westerly winds. In the afternoon hours, the axis of warm air mass will cross southern England, associated with lift. Current thinking is that convection can develop. Given strong low-level vertical wind shear below a 20 m/s low-level jet max at 850 hPa, these stoms may produce tornadoes in the afternoon and evening hours. Severe potential rapidly decreases during the night as drier air masses spread south-westward later on.

No one else is on to this just yet so is there any need to get excited? I did experience what I thought seemed like a microburst this morning that produced 15 seconds of intense rain and winds, flooding the road for 0.5km - then blue sky.

Nice blob of mid level CAPE in central England this afternoon:

gfs_cape_eur15.png

gfs_icape_eur15.png

gfs_layer_eur15.png

gfs_lfc_eur15.png

Plenty of surface CAPE around too:

gfs_spout_eur15.png

0-500M Lapse rates are OK around London and surrounding counties:

gfs_lapse_eur15.png

Here's the area that may be in any tornado risk zone ('may' being the word here):

gfs_stp_eur15.png

gfs_pw_eur15.png

Looks like if anything comes off it's going to be Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Surrey Hertfordshire and Gt London - maybe a couple of counties surrounding those. Worth keeping an eye on, but I'm not 100% confident at this stage.

post-6667-0-38002100-1343893937_thumb.pn

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Here's the jet for later today:

hgt300.png

Theta = 320K value:

18_39.gif

b9ece18c950afbfa6b0fdbfa4ff731d3.png is the current absolute temperature (in K) of the parcel

http://en.wikipedia....ial_temperature

bltopwind.curr.1600lst.d2.body.png

sounding3.curr.1700lst.d2.png

sounding10.curr.1700lst.d2.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Hail in Benny (sorry, Burgess) Hill!

post-6667-0-59243900-1343897696_thumb.jp

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

Just watched a beautiful Cu nim form in a very short period of time, very impressive, but its not got my name on it probably Cotswolds or further east. Just hope I'm not going to be the breeding ground again, I dont think so as showers to my west and southwest are now breaking out. I think by late this afternoon some very good storms will be erupting. Potential increasing during Friday and Saturday as the low fills, but becomes slow moving.

cheers

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

Parts of southern central Uk come under a jetstreak left exit during the afternoon. Divergence should help to create lift.

An area of upper vorticity swings across the region from the west increasing upper level lapse rates. It does look to be coming in a little late if the forecasts are correct.

NMM suggests the upper trough may be a little more complex than GFS with perhaps some interesting vorticity areas further east.

Satellite pictures suggest that the upper trough might be rather uneven.

At lower levels moisture is advected north east to form a surface trough.

I am not really convinced about the surface trough working out quite the way it is depicted, but it does give some indication.

Winds look pretty unidirectional and not particularly strong going upwards, so a tornado risk today would be low. Some convergence around the bristol area at the surface could be right for a spout formation but I am not convinced surface temperatures will be strong enough here. If storms are isolated and they can get good inflow then general wind shear may not be that important. Conditions yesterday evening suggested moderate inflows with clouds at different levels going in different directions , so I would not rule out a tornado today, with early evening perhaps being a key time.

Somewhere like northampton or Bedford late afternoon would be a key area for storms in my view. Forecast SkewT's show moderately good instability, low cloud bases, good height tops with perhaps some drier air coming in aloft from the south west.

Spoilers include the fact that moisture is faily high across the region and all the way up, suggesting rather messy convection which could limit temperatures and instability. Key risk today I think will be localised flooding as some areas see no convection while others see multiple heavy showers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Just had a breif light soft hail shower here.

Looking through the forecasts/charts, some potential here, similiar to the potential we have had all summer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

Had a torrential burst from some heavy and torrential showes a little earlier, the radar showed it even heavier just to the south. 6.4mm fell with a peak rainfall rate of 79mm/h.

I expect a line of heavy/torrential showers and possibley storms to form running SW-NE through the SW peninsula today. If they look good enough I might be rather tempted to drive N to intercept them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

Just had a breif light soft hail shower here.

Looking through the forecasts/charts, some potential here, similiar to the potential we have had all summer.

Nil then laugh.png

On a serious note though, it does look like areas around this region which haven't seen anything yet this year, may be in for a good chance of seeing something today and in fact during the weekend. Showers developing from the SW nicely right now. Perhaps better for those regions E/NE of us, as they continue to develop further and potentially tap into more available energy during the afternoon. good.gif

Edited by Chris K
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Torrential downpour here now. Sky looks black, looks like everything you would associate thunder with............ But no, no T&L.

Bit of flash flooding though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

Extremely heavy rain here.

Very windy, Massive rain drops. No thunder.

Probably some flash flooding round here, The rains that heavy that car alarms are going off.

Edited by Lynxus
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

Had some heavy rain and nice looking dark skies. No Thunder heard. I hope we get something today though and this weekend as I'm off to Sweden Tuesday so I need a storm before I go!

AWD, Chris K & Lynxus - Regarding this weekend, if I were to chase or plonk myself in a good position to catch something, where would one go, judging by current output (I was thinking somewhere North of Gloucester)? I am looking to catch some storms and get some good timelapse. TIA guys.

Edited by Thunder_Bolt
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

Had some heavy rain and nice looking dark skies. No Thunder heard. I hope we get something today though and this weekend as I'm off to Sweden Tuesday so I need a storm before I go!

AWD, Chris K & Lynxus - Regarding this weekend, if I were to chase or plonk myself in a good position to catch something, where would one go, judging by current output (I was thinking somewhere North of Gloucester)? I am looking to catch some storms and get some good timelapse. TIA guys.

NE of glos is always a good idea lol.

Ive only taken a brief look at the charts and im not even sure there will be any storms. Better wait till tomorrow afternoons charts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...