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Nao Forecast For Winter 2012/2013


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47 replies to this topic

#41 Aaron

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Posted 22 July 2012 - 16:59

February 2012 - snow lying on the ground for more than a week here - temps down to -12 or -13C at Church Fenton - actually Church Fenton was -12C at 2am in February at one point - cloud ruined it - could have gotten seriously low.

It was more of a southern cold spell though.

Edited by Aaron, 22 July 2012 - 16:59 .

2013 stats

Highest temperature 11.2°C (3 Jan)
Lowest temperature -7.1°C (19 Jan)
Highest minimum 9.4°C (3 Jan)
Lowest maximum -3.7°C (19 Jan)
Deepest snow depth 25 cm / 10 inches (26 Jan)
Wettest day 20.5 mm (26 Jan)

#42 AWD

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Posted 09 August 2012 - 15:29

Some interesting early thoughts and signs from Matt Hugo concerning the upcoming winter:

http://t.co/k67pnkvR http://t.co/KaGaRjuB

ECMWF seasonal update is out covering D/J/F & has a -ve pressure anom to the E of the UK, with potential ridging to the W...Troughing to the E in winter isn't a bad thing and the +NAO pattern isn't as strong as the July update with temps near/slightly below avg

There is also a strong signal in the ECMWF seasonal for higher pressure over the poles and hence a -AO pattern is evident by the looks.

Seasonal ECM update is interesting esp D/J/F for N Hem with a clear signal for a +ve pressure anom over the pole -AO etc
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#43 mcweather

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Posted 09 August 2012 - 20:32

Some interesting early thoughts and signs from Matt Hugo concerning the upcoming winter:

http://t.co/k67pnkvR http://t.co/KaGaRjuB

ECMWF seasonal update is out covering D/J/F & has a -ve pressure anom to the E of the UK, with potential ridging to the W...Troughing to the E in winter isn't a bad thing and the +NAO pattern isn't as strong as the July update with temps near/slightly below avg

There is also a strong signal in the ECMWF seasonal for higher pressure over the poles and hence a -AO pattern is evident by the looks.

Seasonal ECM update is interesting esp D/J/F for N Hem with a clear signal for a +ve pressure anom over the pole -AO etc


If this comes off it could be good news for winter lovers.

#44 Ed Stone

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Posted 09 August 2012 - 20:35

If this comes off it could be good news for winter lovers.


Unless, like almost all LRFs, it changes next week?

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#45 summer blizzard

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Posted 07 September 2012 - 19:26

Just been looking at the MEI and QBO data for the coming weekend and the QBO will peak anytime between now and November (we had the joint strongest -QBO value for August).

The MEI value surprisingly dropped and cold water has developed near the American coast at the surface, this may simply be a short term thing or result in neutrality for winter.

1984 looks the strongest analogue overall.

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#46 chionomaniac

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Posted 07 September 2012 - 21:25

Just been looking at the MEI and QBO data for the coming weekend and the QBO will peak anytime between now and November (we had the joint strongest -QBO value for August).

The MEI value surprisingly dropped and cold water has developed near the American coast at the surface, this may simply be a short term thing or result in neutrality for winter.

1984 looks the strongest analogue overall.


How close were the analogues last winter sb? Did any years come close to the winter recorded?
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#47 summer blizzard

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Posted 07 September 2012 - 22:22

How close were the analogues last winter sb? Did any years come close to the winter recorded?


2008: -0.7
1999: -1.2
1995: -0.6
1985: -0.2
1970: -1.5
1967:

These were the analogues i used last winter (ignore the value next to them) - don't have the CET data on hand so see if any were close.

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#48 chionomaniac

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Posted 08 September 2012 - 02:36

2008: -0.7
1999: -1.2
1995: -0.6
1985: -0.2
1970: -1.5
1967:

These were the analogues i used last winter (ignore the value next to them) - don't have the CET data on hand so see if any were close.


I can't believe you spent so long working out the analogue years and then didn't check after the event!!

http://www.metoffice...HadCET_mean.txt

Above are the seasonal CET figures since 1659. I have put them next to your years to see if there is any pattern.

2008: 5.6ºC
1999: 5.4ºC
1995: 5.9ºC
1985: 2.7ºC
1970: 3.3ºC
1967: 5.1ºC

Average: 4.7ºC

and 2012: 5.1ºC

So, overall when averaged out the analogues are fairly close to the actual, but there are probably statistically significant differences in those years. Interestingly, 1967 was bang on.
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