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South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread


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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

New thread here folks! :) Good luck to one and all for the weekend! :D Will the mild or the cold win.......? :search:nail biting times ahead methinks !

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

12z doesnt look any better for us to be honest. maybe an hour of transient snow before turning to rain. :cray:

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

At least we get a hour or two of snow on the leading edge before it turns to rain! Also note it has been delayed by around a day or so compared to the 06z!

I think apart from what I said above, this weekend is a now show for us, we now have a few days of Atlantic influenced weather this weekend and early next week!

It's as we process through Feb that's hopefully are fortunes will change, with good forecasts for Feb!

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

At least we get a hour or two of snow on the leading edge before it turns to rain! Also note it has been delayed by around a day or so compared to the 06z!

I think apart from what I said above, this weekend is a now show for us, we now have a few days of Atlantic influenced weather this weekend and early next week!

It's as we process through Feb that's hopefully are fortunes will change, with good forecasts for Feb!

I started to think the block might have held strong for at least half a day while watching 12z but then it just steam rolls us into warm uppers as soon as ppn gets close only really leaving the south east with a notable snow event IMO

Sad times indeed. :nea:

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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton

Is theree not a chance it could be upgraded? There is stilll ages til the weekend?

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Is theree not a chance it could be upgraded? There is stilll ages til the weekend?

There is a chance it could be upgraded or downgraded! The models don't point to one solution, they all point to somewhat different levels of push from the Atlantic this weekend!

For example the GFS today is poor, it would be a hour or two of snow before milder air comes in and turns it back too rai

The UKMO is Ok, it's basically the same evolution as above but slower so a good few hours of snow could be had before the milder air hits

The GEM is good, it would all be snow and we would get some decent amounts over some parts of the region!

I would advice not too take any one model run as gospel this evening as I believe they will all change and continue to do so for a couple more days yet!

I will be looking a tweets from Ian Fergusson and Met Office updates personally for this weekend

Oh, and anything after this weekend ignore! Until the models have this weekend sorted, they won't have next week right at all IMO

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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton

There is a chance it could be upgraded or downgraded! The models don't point to one solution, they all point to somewhat different levels of push from the Atlantic this weekend!

For example the GFS today is poor, it would be a hour or two of snow before milder air comes in and turns it back too rai

The UKMO is Ok, it's basically the same evolution as above but slower so a good few hours of snow could be had before the milder air hits

The GEM is good, it would all be snow and we would get some decent amounts over some parts of the region!

I would advice not too take any one model run as gospel this evening as I believe they will all change and continue to do so for a couple more days yet!

I will be looking a tweets from Ian Fergusson and Met Office updates personally for this weekend

Oh, and anything after this weekend ignore! Until the models have this weekend sorted, they won't have next week right at all IMO

Thank you :) it just seemed everyone had written this off already and it's days away yet.

On another note, what weather stations do you all have? Think I'll have to invest in another one as mine has gone caput...

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Thank you :) it just seemed everyone had written this off already and it's days away yet.

On another note, what weather stations do you all have? Think I'll have to

invest in another one as mine has gone caput...

To be truthful, it is more likely to be a brief snow to rain event in our patch! Whilst nothing can bevwritten off, the GEM solution is on it's own at the extreme end!

However, nothing can be written off yet, it's too early in the day for that! Like I said before, I'm very confident Feb will provided a snowfall event sometime during the month for us, a lot of respected forecasters Including the Met Office and the more reliable EC 32 Day Ensembles point too this!

It will be interesting to see what we will be looking at this time next week, as right now I couldn't even guess!

But as for this weekend, don't expect too much for now!

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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton

To be truthful, it is more likely to be a brief snow to rain event in our patch! Whilst nothing can bevwritten off, the GEM solution is on it's own at the extreme end!

However, nothing can be written off yet, it's too early in the day for that! Like I said before, I'm very confident Feb will provided a snowfall event sometime during the month for us, a lot of respected forecasters Including the Met Office and the more reliable EC 32 Day Ensembles point too this!

It will be interesting to see what we will be looking at this time next week, as right now I couldn't even guess!

But as for this weekend, don't expect too much for now!

Thank you :)

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

down to -4 with a dewpoint of -4c last night thats what i like to see!

Going to be a cold night tonight mate! Even colder tomorrow night!

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

evening all,

more ups and even more downs. :cray:

i will expect the worst and that way i wont be to let down, and i might even be surprised. :rofl:

remember things can change in a short space of time, over the weekend we had stella charts and now we have the rubbish but it can change back to stella again!!(although a long shot at the moment) .

fromey :good:

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

And then we have the ECM which keeps us in cold uppers throughout the weekend with even possible snow!

I give up! I will let my 3 year old draw the FAX charts tonight!

Expect it to be mild and wet and cold and snowy this weekend!

ECM has the Atlantic coming in next week!

Edited by Active Weather Dude
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Posted
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)

Probably best to expect it to turn mild and wet then you cant be disappointed - anything else would then be a bonus (except freezing rain, possibly the worst of all worlds )

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Milder and wet would still probably be favourite for our region but whether this happens on friday or next tuesday is anyones guess

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

Hoping for a slight shift west in that battle, that would get more of our region in on the action, including where I am :-)

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Posted
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire

Im happy with it.. But yes would like it to turn to snow further west, as it has devizes in the battleground and snow... But would still be very squeeky bum time lol

Edited by lfcdude
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Posted
  • Location: Rangeworthy, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Rangeworthy, South Gloucestershire

Glass half empty my gut says that we will be left disappointed with rain.

Glass half full can anyone say how much snow this would bring if the block holds up?

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

evening all

oh brother he we go, a shift to the west and its :search::drinks::acute:

and a shift to the east and its :bad::help::cray::sorry::wallbash:

like ifcdude said squeeky bum time!!!

i cant wait :mellow:

fromey

Edited by fromey
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Lol! ECM FI throws us up a Greenie High! Would back up GP's and the Mets outlook but too far out to be taking seriously for now!

Let's get through this weekend first!

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